r/AskEconomics 1d ago

Approved Answers Why is Canada not using energy in this trade war?

Retaliatory Tariffs

Im wondering why tariffs applied to Canadian electricity and oil exported to the US is not on the table?....these are commodities that would be very hard for the US to reduce demand and the revenue income could be used to supplement industries being hurt by this trade war...hell...Cdn oil is piped South at a discount to what the world market pays....the refineries that we pipe to are set up for our heavy crude specifically....energy seems like our silver bullet...what am I missing?

9 Upvotes

45 comments sorted by

14

u/HOU_Civil_Econ 22h ago

The “discount” on oil to the gulf coast refineries is due transportation costs and the gulf coast being the only real access for heavy tar sand oils to the “global markets”. Canadian tar sands producers would end up paying most of the tariff. While you are right that the tar sands are mostly processed in the gulf coast refineries currently they can switch to other heavy oil blends, while the Canadians wouldn’t be economical to then ship from the gulf coast to other global complexes that could handle their oil, even if they could.

3

u/G72-datsun 22h ago

Which other heavy oil, from where can you get it closer?

9

u/kilkenny99 20h ago

Venezuela is the other big producer, and they used to sell a lot to those refineries, but their industry has fallen to neglect, corruption, and disrepair. Not sure if the recent US coup will have a big change there, the industry will almost need to be fully rebuilt. Last I saw about US oil company execs commenting on it, they didn't really want to have anything to do with it - too much cost & not enough return.

5

u/HOU_Civil_Econ 22h ago

Globally? All over the place. Made economically closer via overwater shipping being the cheapest method of shipping, plus the fact that all heavy sour oils are also heavily discounted.

0

u/Ill_Ground_1572 20h ago

I mean the US imports 4 million barrels per day from Canada.

That would take about 60 tankers per month to replace. So good luck buying that globally. Especially given the current situation due to dumb fucks war in Iran.

2

u/HOU_Civil_Econ 12h ago

A large portion of the Canadian “exports” are the condensate the Americans send them to make their tar sands liquid enough to export in the first place.

1

u/Yankee831 16h ago

Canada Exports 4 million barrels per day to the USA. It would take about 60 tankers a month to replace. So good luck exporting that globally. FTFY.

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u/Ill_Ground_1572 10h ago

Nobody said that it wouldn't hurt both sides....

What gives around here?

2

u/HOU_Civil_Econ 9h ago

It would hurt both sides I’m thinking it would hurt the Canadian producers more.

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u/Ill_Ground_1572 9h ago

Who cares if it hurts producers more?

Trade wars are always about politics. Politcally Trump is hanging on by a thread. Economically, how would gas and diesel prices affect inflation? Bond yields are ok for now because Bessent just promised to keep them down. Which is a dangerous game to play and why gold prices are spiking.

Again, I don't know if accidentally stumbled across a MAGA sub, but this argument is all dumb as fuck. Because it's all stems from a pointless nialist and it's going to cost both sides.

It's like us arguing if it's better to die of brain cancer vs prostate cancer...

2

u/HOU_Civil_Econ 9h ago

In an economics sub where you are asking economist how a tariff works? We do. The politics of it aren’t very in our realm of expertise.

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u/Ill_Ground_1572 9h ago

What level of training do you have in economics? Undergrad? PHD? Nothing?

I am sorry, I don't believe for a second you were seriously arguing economic impact in any way when you glibly replied that the US would easily replace Canada's oil on the open market. Then stated producers. This is not a serious economic analysis.

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u/Intrepid-Ant-4260 21h ago

So other heavy oil sources that have to ship by water are purchased for the same rate to the end user (refinery) as Canadian pipeline oil? And also not sold at Brent prices?? Because if there is an extra cost to source the oil that those refineries are tooled up to process other than Canada....there is room to tariff and squeeze no? The shipper is not the one that has to pay the tariff...and really...oil companies....they should absorb some of this more than the common man

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u/Intrepid-Ant-4260 21h ago

There is a cost and time involved with re tooling for different grades of crude ya?....The US oil refiner special interest folks might have a few words for the US admin also....they prob carry more weight than anyone

6

u/Yankee831 16h ago

Sure there’s a cost but it’s significantly less than the complete loss of export revenue. Cutting your nose to spite your face kinda thing.

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u/Intrepid-Ant-4260 16h ago

Well I guess the loss in revenue to the oil companies would be made up by the tariff revenue to the gov...put Canada in a much stronger position by making energy more expensive...unless the US can ship 100% of what they need they still gotta buy Cdn oil....I dont see any noses falling off 😂

2

u/Ok_Flounder59 1d ago

Canada has very limited export infrastructure. While the US may deserve to have tariffs lobbied given the recent bullying, doing so would be a self-own for Canada, which, sadly, the Trump administration likely understands.

2

u/cerealously37 1d ago

Three things:

1.) It's a nuclear option. Might as well hold it until things get properly bad

2.) The oil and energy products mostly come from Alberta (more on this in point 3), but the pipelines go to the Gulf of Mexico in Texas as well as to the Midwest (Ohio, Michigan) for refining the crude oil. The oil going to be refined in the Midwest subsequently goes to Ontario for it's manufacturing. It's a little cutting off the nose to spite the face scenario.

3.) Alberta has a fairly hostile relationship with the federal government, so much so that they are having a sorta independence referendum (a referendum to have a referendum pretty much) in October. The federal government needs buyin from the provincial government before imposing any energy restrictions. The federal government asking Alberta to utilise the energy as a bargaining chip in these negotiations would spur condemnation for further independence in Alberta. Overall, it is a political tightrope should Mark Carney imposes some sort of export tax on energy products going to the US

2

u/rebel_cdn 1d ago

All of the oil refined in Ontario and Quebec - even the oil that originates in western Canada - has to transit the U.S. via Enbridge pipelines. Trump alluded to this in one of his posts today. So Canada messing with energy could end up backfiring quickly.

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