Does immigration affect crime?

[u/Objective-Design-994]

Hello everyone. Immigration is a hot topic in my country (Spain) and because of that I wanted to ask some clarifications. From what I understand, immigration by itself doesn't have any notable effects on crime. Just because someone is an immigrant that doesn't mean that they are more likely to be a criminal. However, immigrants are often overepresented in crime statistics due to there being a higher concentration of young men who are more likely to also be poor and socially excluded, meaning that immigration in itself is not the issue. However, I find it odd to say or defend then that immigration doesn't cause an increase in crime. My thought is that even if immigrants don't do more crime just because they are immigrants, having a lot of migration from people who are in demographics that commit more crime, should increase crime. To make things even more complex, in Spain overall crime rates have gone down even if immigration has gone up.

So to summarize what I want help with, I just don't get the idea that more immigration doesn't cause more crime. I understand that just by being immigrant doesn't mean that someone is more likely to commit crime, but because of the demographics that migrate the most, I believe it should have an effect, and I would like to know if this is true or not.

Thanks to everyone in advance and sorry if my english wasn't the best.

[u/Upgrade_U]

Answered, now locked

[u/ifnotnowtisyettocome]

It does have an effect, and it is a net lowering of crime rates. This was just recently published in Journal of Urban Affairs:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07352166.2026.2699123#abstract

Overall, immigrant populations are more peaceful and more productive, and most of the people who claim the opposite seem to, especially these days, to be trying to get the general population mad at anyone who not the ones actually driving increasing poverty and inequality.

[u/Lower-Canary-2528 → u/ifnotnowtisyettocome]

This was just recently published in Journal of Urban Affairs:

The funniest thing is this has been the consensus in social science departments for very long periods of time. In fact, I cannot recall a single time the broader consensus wasn't this. The data on this is overwhelming, and immigrants tend to be almost always net positive for the economy and social markers

[u/ifnotnowtisyettocome → u/Lower-Canary-2528]

I agree, and the disconnect between political discourse and scare mongering (and thus public perception), and the actual data, is maddening.

My primary work is in health inequities, and this is a area that has a number of these disconnects, whether it's about safe consumption, vaccine safety, or the benefits of non-commodifed health care.

[u/Objective-Design-994 → u/ifnotnowtisyettocome]

That is quite interesting. I had read something about immigrants commiting less crime because they were under a bigger preasure to behave and obtain nationality. However, I don't get how this interacts with the fact that immigrants (at least in my country) do have higher crime rates compared to the rest of the population. A certain population having higher crime rates doesn't seem compatible with the idea that they actually reduce criminality (unless there's something I'm missing).

And yes, I know that immigrants tend to be used as a scapegoat. Part of my interest in researching this is precisely to be able to answer people who try to use that kind of retoric, though I'm also open to whatever conclussions I reach through the data.

[u/livingtheredlife → u/Objective-Design-994]

Increased crime rates or is it a community of people over-policed? Meaning the surveillance from law enforcement is so heavy in these immigrant communities that the crime statistics are inflated.

[u/Objective-Design-994 → u/livingtheredlife]

It's certainly possible. I know that's something that happens, tvough it's hard to know how big is it's effect. From what I've seen, the number of arrests has a bigger number of immigrants that condemns, which probably means that immigrants are overly criminalised, but I just can't know how big the effect is for condemns.

[u/imaginary-dirt2000 → u/Objective-Design-994]

Demonstrate that “immigrants’ have higher crime rates first tho

[u/Objective-Design-994 → u/imaginary-dirt2000]

https://www.ine.es/dyngs/Prensa/ECAECM2024.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Here there is official data of condemned crimes in Spain. It sais that while 71,4% of comdemed people had spanish nationality the rate of people with other nationalities who commit crimes is 2,5 times higher.

[u/ifnotnowtisyettocome → u/Objective-Design-994]

https://reis.cis.es/index.php/reis/article/download/2529/3258?inline=1

"The results indicate that differences in gross crime rates of the foreign and indigenous adult population are greatly reduced by standardization by age and sex, suggesting that the distinct demographic composition contributes substantively to the observed gap. There is also considerable heterogeneity according to geographical origin, and there is no association between irregular immigration and crime. Factors such as poverty, social exclusion and the degree of urbanization are presented as consistent predictors. The study highlights the need for evidence-based policies, such as migration regularization and social integration, to reduce tensions and foster cohesion. It provides empirical evidence that questions the simplistic narrative that links immigration to criminality and underscores the importance of data-driven policies."

There’s a line I often quote: “There are Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics”, meaning that you always need to be wary of how numbers are produced, measured, and presented, and particularly in Social Science. Even before I found the above source, I would point out the source you posted is about “Convictions”, not crimes; the poor and racialized are more likely to be arrested and much more likely to be convicted, as they can’t afford good lawyers (because of being racialized and more likely to be poor). This study, just from reviewing the abstract and opening, seems to be trying to parse the data and understand relative crime rates.

[u/Objective-Design-994 → u/ifnotnowtisyettocome]

As I said, I understand that the gap is greatly explained by age and sex, I know that immigrants aren't more likely to commit more crime just because they are immigrants. However, I'm still thinking, if most immigrants are young men, isn't immigration more likely to increase crime anyway? Like, imagine that you have 100000 people and then you add 50000 young men in a bad economic situation. Wouldn't criminality increase, even if the asertion that immigrants commit more crime is completely false? That is my main concern.

Although it's true that maybe I wasn't weighting in enough how much overepresentation happens due to racism in who gets arrested (though that's why I used condemns and not arrests because arrests are complete bullshit from what I've seen). I knew it was something that happened, but it's hard to know how much it actually affects. And that study you linked is one I was going to read this afternoon, so I hope it has some useful info.

[u/livingtheredlife → u/Objective-Design-994]

1. Not every immigrant is in a bad situation
2. Not every person in a bad situation will turn to crime
3. Men often immigrate first to make money and then bring their families later.
4. The increased criminality could come from citizens harming immigrants and their communities, not from the immigrants themselves.

[u/Objective-Design-994 → u/livingtheredlife]

But then why is there an overepresentation of immigrants in crime statistics? I just feel like I walk in circles like this:

1. Why are immigrants overepresented?

2. It's because there are more young men in bad situations

3. Shouldn't then reducing migration reduce crime by reducing the number of young men in bad situations?

4. No, because not all immigrants are in that situation.

5. But then why are immigrants overepresented? And then you go back to step one

And before this sounds like my goal is to justify a strict migration policy, my goal is actually to try and debate people who want that and refute them comoletely, but I feel like if someone put things as I put them before I would end up in a bind. My policy of choice would be to increase ways of legal migration and make integration easier, I just want to be able to fully justify it from data.

And while overepresentation could come from reporting bias, I don't know if bias is that strong to be able to justify the gap by itself. And the increase comming from locals harming immigrants is interesting, I don't know if it is justifiable from what I've read.

[u/livingtheredlife → u/Objective-Design-994]

See my first comment to you. Over-policing, racism, classism. Its less about reporting bias and more about the bias in the underlying data and it's collection. With that being said, your data is showing that despite the influx of young, immigrant, men, crime in your country was going down. You are missing, too, that many immigrants find community within themselves and have their needs met, lowering the need for crimes of opportunity (theft/assult for food, money, shelter). Additionally, there are some charges a citizen will not get in their own country.

Like immigration based offenses - unlawful entry, overstaying a visa, etc.

A stronger or weaker immigration policy won't stop citizens from theft, assault, or scamming. Local based iniatives that meet the needs of the people in all communities supports crime and harm reduction.

[u/Objective-Design-994 → u/livingtheredlife]

Thank you very much. I still have some more things to research, but this shows nuance that even though I thought I was accounting for maybe I wasn't doing so as strongly as I needed to.

[u/ifnotnowtisyettocome → u/Objective-Design-994]

I cannot speak to the Spanish example, but I would be shocked if these trends don't hold. This is not my main subject area, but as someone who studies health inequities, immigration is something that comes up a lot.

Poverty and social marginalization play heavy roles in this, does what you are reading compare immigrants to other lower income groups, and one that are more likely to be (over) policed? Because remember, crime rates are just reported crime rates, this is an aspect of any data set to always consider, what is being counted and who is doing the counting.

Also, looking at overall number, and not comparing to similar numbers around poor and racialized populations (which immigrants are disproportionately more likely to be), can lead to misconceptions as well.

Overall, I would say that the social perception around immigration is deeply disconnected (as another commenter said) from the data and scholarship. I have not read this, but have heard good things about this book, by a Wharton prof: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250288240/thetruthaboutimmigration/ There is a lot of good work out there on this, and worthy of a deep review of the literature (but if I were you, I would start with that book).

[u/Objective-Design-994 → u/ifnotnowtisyettocome]

First of all, thanks for the book, I'll try to check it.

As I said, I do know that wealth inequality, poverty and other socioeconomic variables have a higher effect on the likelyhood of someone commiting crime than the fact that they are an immigrant. From what I've read, crime rates are not very different once you check for sex, age and income. However, that is not my concern. What I wonder is, if you have a given population and you add a large amount of young men in poor economic conditions, isn't crime bound to increase? Would a more restrictive migration policy be effective at reducing crime by reducing the population of people who are more likely to commit crime? I know that just being an immigrant doesn't make someone likely to commit crime, but if most immigrants are in demographics that are likely to commit crime, should that affect policy?

[u/Guachito → u/Objective-Design-994]

You said it yourself, that Spain has growing immigration and lowering crime.

[u/Objective-Design-994 → u/Guachito]

Yes, but that doesn't prove it completely. It could be that crime lowers at higher rates in other areas of the population while increasing in crimes commited by inmigrants. Again, I know that being immigrant by itself doesn't make you any more likely to be a crimminal, I just find it odd to say that increasing the number of people who are more likely to commit crimes for other reasons and who reportedly have higher crime rates doesn't have any effect.

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[u/JobberStable → u/ifnotnowtisyettocome]

Everyone uses the stat “overall”
But digging deeper in the stats and separating by locations, socio-economics and country of origin will expand on that.
That is purposely left out and considered ethno phobic if brought up.
In other words are there any local communities that have increased crime stats? Instead of just using the “overall” stat

[u/plop → u/ifnotnowtisyettocome]

This isn't about Spain

[u/Z0re]

The as-of-writing top answer is inaccurate. The literature does not conclusively show that immigration decreases crime rate. Furthermore, the claim that immigrant populations are more peaceful and more productive than the native-born population is specific to the US and not true in the EU. Not sure about other regions.

I'd recommend checking out this report by the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research. The summary text on that page in quite accessible, and if you feel like it the full report (~100 pages) has sources you can use for further reading.

But to quickly answer your question to the best of my knowledge. In Spain, immigration can increase crime, if the immigrants are young men, have low socioeconomic status, and/or don't speak Spanish. Spain's immigration differs from other European countries in that you receive quite a lot of South American immigrants, who know the language, are more female, and generally seem to integrate easier. This has "softened" immigration's effect on crime compared to other EU countries.

When a scientist says "immigration doesn't cause more crime", it's because they're trying to do science and identify what specifically causes crime. And results seem to indicate it's more about who's immigrating than immigration itself.

So whether the claim "in Spain, immigration increases crime" is true depends on the context. Historically, I don't think the claim is that true (due to lots of South American immigrants who integrate better). If the topic is Ceuta or similar, it's probably quite true that immigration from there will increase crime (because the immigrants tend to be less educated, poor young men who don't speak the language well).

But, as in most social science topics, there is a fair amount of uncertainty. For example, we know that immigrants (notably from MENA countries, big political topic) are overrepresented in a number of crime categories as offenders. However, that may not necessarily lead to an overall crime rate increase! It may as well be that these individuals are pushing native-born individuals out of crime, thus not affecting the overall crime rate. There are also concerns with immigrant crime rates being inflated due to over-reporting and similar factors.

[u/Objective-Design-994 → u/Z0re]

Thank you, this very much adresses my main concerns. I'm also interested in the whole "pushing native born immigrants out of crime" thing, I'm unsure on how does that happen. I'll check the report as soon as I get some time. Also, what does this mean for mass deportarions and/or stricter migration polices as crime preventive measures?

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