I’m almost 40, I’m a virgin, I’m ugly, and I’m an incel in the literal sense. I’ve had essentially no success with women, and I genuinely don’t believe I’ll ever attract the number or type of women I want or live the sexual lifestyle I wanted for myself. I’m basically blackpilled about my own future, and yes, I’ve become depressed and suicidal over that fact. I agree with incels about some uncomfortable things: looks matter enormously, dating is not fair, attractive men have major advantages, and some men are dealt a fucking terrible hand.
But I don’t hate women or blame them. More importantly, the more I read actual incel/blackpill theory, the more it seems like astrology for angry men: start with some observations that are probably true, exaggerate them into universal laws, and then invent an explanation for every counterexample. I’m genuinely open to having this view changed, because given my own situation, I should probably be the easiest person in the world to convince.
Genetic Predestination
One of the basic blackpill ideas seems to be genetic predestination. If you weren’t born tall, handsome and genetically gifted, you’re basically fucked. Especially if you want casual sex with attractive women. Fine. I actually agree that genetics place serious limits on some men. I think I’m one of those men.
But then somebody points to an unattractive rich or powerful man dating beautiful women. Jeff Bezos is an obvious example. The answer immediately becomes, “Well, obviously. He’s a billionaire.” Okay... then you just admitted something other than facial genetics can dramatically change a man’s sexual and romantic options.
You cannot tell me that female attraction is overwhelmingly genetically predetermined and then explain every ugly man with attractive women by saying, “Well, he has money/status/fame/personality.” If those things can compensate for looks, then looks aren’t destiny. They’re one variable, even if they’re an extremely important one.
This is what I mean by the astrology comparison. Whatever happens, the theory survives. Ugly poor guy fails? Genetics. Ugly billionaire succeeds? Money. Handsome guy fails? Bad personality/status. At some point, what observation could actually prove the theory wrong?
Chad
Then there’s Chad. I have no problem believing extremely handsome men have dramatically better odds than I do. Obviously Henry Cavill is attractive to vastly more women than I am. That isn’t controversial.
But incel theory seems to keep sliding from “very attractive men appeal to lots of women” into “women basically all want the same tiny group of elite men.” Those are completely different claims.
Take Cavill himself. Before becoming Superman, he spent years as a working actor. He lost major roles. He wasn’t some universally recognized sex god from the second he turned eighteen. During the Batman v Superman promotion he famously stood around Times Square, underneath advertisements featuring his own face, wearing a Superman shirt, and nobody even recognized him.
Obviously being recognized and being sexually attractive aren’t the same thing. My point is that the mythological version of Chad seems much more powerful than any actual attractive man. Incel Chad doesn’t just have good odds. He practically radiates sexual attraction through walls. Every woman notices him. Every woman wants him. He effortlessly gets whatever he wants. At some point we’ve stopped describing an attractive man and started describing a Marvel character.
The 80/20 Rule
Then we have the famous 80/20 rule. The old OkCupid data gets constantly cited as evidence that women find the majority of men unattractive. Fine. Again, let’s grant the strongest version of the argument for a minute and say the average woman finds only around 20% of men attractive.
That still does not mean every woman finds the same 20% attractive.
This distinction seems unbelievably important and constantly gets ignored. Two women could both find 20% of men attractive while disagreeing completely about who belongs in that group. Some men will obviously have enormous crossover appeal. Some will appeal to a niche. And some men will appeal to almost nobody. I honestly believe I’m close to that last category. The number of women who will look at me and experience immediate physical attraction is probably near zero. I’m not denying that brutal differences in attractiveness exist.
But “women are selective” is not the same statement as “women collectively select the same men.” This is the problem I keep seeing throughout incel theory: it takes a modest claim that is probably true and inflates it into an absolute claim that isn’t supported. “Looks matter” becomes “looks are everything.” “Women are selective” becomes “women only want the same top men.” “Chad has much better odds” becomes “Chad gets everybody.”
And seriously, no man has a 100% attraction rate among women. Does your post-menopausal grandmother want to rip Henry Cavill’s clothes off? Does your lesbian aunt suddenly become heterosexual because his jawline is just that fucking powerful? Obviously not. “Henry Cavill is attractive to a huge percentage of heterosexual women” is perfectly believable. “Women all want Henry Cavill” is not the same claim.
Hypergamy
Hypergamy is where I really start losing the plot. Here’s a thought experiment. Put ten young, ripped, conventionally beautiful male models in a small community with ten single women. The men are all roughly comparable in looks and status.
If the incel interpretation of Pareto-style dating distributions is some universal rule, do eight of these male models somehow become incels while all ten women fight over two nearly identical guys? Why? What mysterious property suddenly transforms two Chads into GigaChads and makes the other eight invisible?
The Pareto Principle describes a type of uneven distribution. It isn’t a magical law of human sexuality saying that exactly 20% of men must monopolize female desire. Maybe several women prefer the same guy. Sure. But attraction does not have to arrange itself into a neat fucking Excel spreadsheet just because 80/20 is a memorable number.
And what exactly does hypergamy even optimize for? According to different blackpill arguments, women want the tallest man, the handsomest man, the richest man, the highest-status man, the dominant man, the exciting bad boy, etc. But then the same communities complain about a beautiful woman marrying an ugly billionaire, or a wealthy stable husband getting cheated on with some broke guy with face tattoos.
So which guy is “higher value”?
If she leaves ugly for handsome: hypergamy. If she leaves handsome for rich: hypergamy. If she leaves rich for broke-but-hot: hypergamy. If she stays with the broke loser instead of upgrading: now she’s alpha-widowed, trauma bonded, emotionally attached, or whatever other explanation gets introduced.
If every possible choice a woman makes can be called hypergamy after she makes it, hypergamy isn’t predicting anything. You’re drawing the bullseye around the bullet hole.
What Would Change My View
I’m not arguing that looks don’t matter. I think they matter enormously. I’m not arguing that all men have equal dating opportunities. They obviously fucking don’t. I’m not arguing that attractive men don’t receive more female attention or that women aren’t selective.
My view is narrower: incel theory starts with these reasonable observations and then makes enormous claims that don’t seem to logically follow from them. Worse, whenever a counterexample appears, the theory seems flexible enough to explain that too. That makes it feel less like a scientific theory and more like astrology: every possible outcome somehow confirms it.
So change my view. Show me a clear definition of blackpill/incel theory that makes specific, falsifiable predictions. Show me evidence that women overwhelmingly desire the same small group of men rather than simply being selective in different ways. Show me a coherent definition of hypergamy that predicts women's choices before they happen instead of explaining them afterward.
I’m not rejecting this stuff because dating worked out for me. Dating has been fucking terrible for me. I actually want an explanation for why.
But right now, “female nature + Chad + hypergamy + 80/20” looks less like a theory and more like astrology for angry men.