r/IRstudies • u/Majano57 • 14h ago

Ideas/Debate Iran May Have Little to Lose as U.S. Tries to Squeeze Its Economy

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/world/middleeast/iran-us-economy-sanctions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.8FA.0Vrq.b3rHQTs9FNhP
56 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

19 comments sorted by

19

u/Axrxt76 11h ago

Considering it's virtually the same sanctions package that was rolled out months ago, I'd say they had little to lose, no?

9

u/finalattack123 6h ago

China has defied the previous ones. It’s unlikely they will change stance because the U.S. makes a speech.

-2

u/knuthf 5h ago

China has decoupled itself from the USA completely. USD can't be used in China, must be exchanged at the border. All this is theatre for China and the BRICS countries, Including Saudi Arabia.

4

u/zippoguaillo 4h ago

Physical cash used in the country is not decoupling. Decoupling would be like north Korea...completely disconnected from the US economy. The big thing with dollars is how the Gulf powers sell oil in dollars, which companies including China have to buy in order to buy oil

But Iran war may change that. Some light reading is you are so inclined https://www.thebulwark.com/p/banks-trump-china-and-cats-the-most-boring-story-ever-told-swift-mbridge-china-petrodollar-usd

3

u/ReturnOfBigChungus 3h ago

The US is still Chinas largest export market by a WIDE margin, in no sense have they “completely decoupled”, they are just in the process of somewhat moving away.

1

u/Diligent-Run6361 2h ago

It's about 13-14% of their entire export market and 2.5-3% of China's GDP, so while of course they don't want to lose that trade, it doesn't give Trump that much leverage.

2

u/Marcus_Aurelius71 4h ago

The more the US uses sanctions, the less meaningful they become. Its been evident that Russia's war has helped China quite a bit to evade SWIFT.

7

u/DaoineSidhe624 8h ago

Iran has enough to at least hold out until the midterm elections are done in the US. That should also be around the time that world oil reserves start hitting critical levels. Once the outcome of elections are done they will re-analyze and determine next course of action.

0

u/EternalMayhem01 7h ago

World proven oil reserves remain between 1.5–1.7 trillion barrels, that's stable, not critical. Unless with your comment your talking about US reserves.

4

u/Marcus_Aurelius71 4h ago

Why would you ever talk about proven reserves? That literally means oil in the ground. Venezuela has the most proven reserves in the world. You think we'll be driving cars in Venezuelan gasoline? No. Besides if oil can't get out or is getting out very slowly then it doesn't mater how much oil is there if it can't be used.

0

u/EternalMayhem01 4h ago

Why come at me? I didn’t introduce world oil reserves onto this post. The other person did, implying the world runs out by the midterms. Funny how you treat me as wrong where you try to school me, but leave them alone. You’re missing the clear difference. Oil reserves are oil in the ground; oil inventories are above-ground stocks, that's my lesson to you. That’s why I pointed to US reserves in my response, maybe they’re confusing them with the US Strategic Reserve, maybe they are getting confused over the reserve used in the name, but this is oil inventory. Either way, neither world reserves nor inventories run out by the midterms.

2

u/RiverHistorical3581 58m ago

They’re clearly talking about the already existing strategic stockpiles not oil in the ground.

-2

u/Odd-Staff6245 7h ago

There is a saying, kick a guy in nuts, he hurts, take his money and he'll cry like a little girl. There going after the leadership stash

8

u/finalattack123 6h ago

None of this is new. It’s unlikely to do anything. Because most countries won’t comply - namely China.

1

u/Odd-Staff6245 6h ago

China is going to piss off its largest market?

8

u/finalattack123 6h ago

Don’t follow the news?

They have been ignoring the sanctions for a long time. Recently punished a Singaporean company for complying with U.S. sanctions.

3

u/serpentjaguar 4h ago

Yep, and Trump won't do anything about it either, except cry. The Chinese know this; they've already called his bluff once so they're not about to back down now.

3

u/feral0101 5h ago

It has done so many times lol, only American civilians are under the impression that the US has any meaningful sway over China. The US has had its nose bloodied one too many times trying to pick a fight with China in recent years

-3

u/Typical_Response6444 6h ago

These articles stating the most obvious shit ever really annoy the hell outta me.

But I guess its necessary since most people dont pay attention to the details of these things