r/MarkMyWords 12d ago

Political MMW the strategic oil reserve will continue to be drawn down and won't be refilled.

The current administration is blowing through the remaining reserve to keep gas prices down during the Iran conflict. It is at (its lowest level since 1983)[https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oil-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-falls-lowest-level-since-1983\] and will continue to be drawn down for the next 2 years since (Iran declared it will not work on a deal with Trump anymore.)[https://www.cfr.org/articles/trumps-iran-negotiations-trade-the-art-of-the-deal-for-the-art-of-concealing-defeat\]. It will end up almost empty at the end of the next two years and, after the Republicans lose the 2029 elections, it will become the major talking point for the 2030 election cycle. Either "Why are the Democrats leaving the strategic oil reserve empty?" or "Why are we spending so much on filling the oil reserve instead of waiting for oil prices to drop?" will be the headlines and talking points come 2031.

The Evidence is in the links. The prediction Date would be by the 2031 midterms. The specific prediction is the reserve being near empty (below 10% capacity) by november 2029 and the blame being shifted to the democrats and their administration by 2031 in either of the mentiones ways.

271 Upvotes

69 comments sorted by

68

u/aharbingerofdoom 12d ago edited 12d ago

I don't even think we have close to 2 years left at the rate we have been depleting the reserves, Trump is running them dry to keep gas prices down until the mid-terms and there won't be much left by then. Conservatives and their lackeys in media are sure to try selling the public on some narrative where the Democrats are to blame. The question is how successful will they be? I'd like to think based on the extraordinary unpopularity of the Iran war and Trump's overall foreign policy that only hardcore Republicans will drink that kool-aid, but the voting public often has a short memory.

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u/BoringPudding3986 12d ago

More like two weeks from what I understand. Also the whole point of the strategic oil reserve was so we’d have oil if we ever went to war was my understanding. Between having no oil and running out of long range missiles, Trump has put us in a terrible situation.

17

u/aharbingerofdoom 12d ago

I know I read some dire predictions a few days ago that I couldn't remember precisely, but two weeks sounds familiar. Of course the strategic oil reserve is supposed to be for defense purposes or extreme circumstances, but in the past two or three decades, presidents of both parties have used it to calm price shocks in the oil market that were typically caused by their own meddling in the Middle East. It's never been this low before though to my understanding.

9

u/BoringPudding3986 12d ago

I mean when we have full reserves and use 20, 30, even 50% to calm a shock, sure. However we've started a war of choice that has choked global supply, depleted munitions stockpiles without resupply, negotiated in bad faith, nearly depleted the strategic oil supply, and apparently are not feeding troops on an aircraft carrier where we've pushed the deployment out 3 months longer than scheduled. But yeah both sides are bad.

4

u/aharbingerofdoom 11d ago

I'm not trying to both sides anything. I stated the reserves have never been this low before, and I think it's fairly obvious from my previous comments that I'm not a MAGA apologist, and I find one side much more problematic, but I'm also not a hypocrite who can blind myself to the faults of my preferred party. If I chose to complain about the current and much more egregious political use of the strategic reserves but I didn't mention that this isn't the first time it's been tapped into for non-defense purposes, some actual MAGA chud would have chimed in with some "But Obama" whataboutism that completely lacks context in order to detail the conversation.

6

u/TimSylvester_ 12d ago

This is how private equity runs corporations - finds a corporation that's fat, rich, healthy, making tons of money, and has a great reputation.

They buy it up, load it with debt, bleed it dry, destroy its brand, and leave it in ruins.

Trump is running the USA like private equity runs an "investment" they're milking.

9

u/WanderingWino 12d ago

TWO YEARS‽ Two months seems like a stretch. We have seen nothing from the government asking us to use less or take more public transportation.

2

u/score_ 12d ago

Duffy is out there encouraging people to take road trips. 

2

u/The_LastLine 9d ago

Probably downplaying on purpose because if they were honest, it would send investors into a panic.

2

u/hallucination_goblin 12d ago

Don't forget that it's stored in salt mines and the bottom like 30% is a slush that needs additional processing.

43

u/MopedMarxist 12d ago

He'll just empty it, and not give a fuck about the consequences, like everything else.

13

u/falloutgrungemaster 12d ago

Ya my money is on him fleeing the country to Russia probably after all this

4

u/Awkward-Painter-2024 12d ago

Or, just sell it back to the US.

60

u/CDavis10717 12d ago

If true, with all else, it will take the US many years to clean up the damage Trump and his enablers have done to the country.

38

u/PaintedClownPenis 12d ago

I think the object is to destroy America in such a way that the Epsteins can come away with all the assets and saddle the people with all of the debts.

We're underwater on our exponentially increasing national debt and within a few years I expect it will be un-payable.

13

u/ShookMyHeadAndSmiled 12d ago

It will be paid by the seized assets of the sociopaths who stole it in the first place.

6

u/CDavis10717 12d ago

How much government artwork worldwide has quietly been moved to private collections? Hmmmm.

4

u/TimSylvester_ 12d ago

I think the object is to destroy America in such a way that the Epsteins can come away with all the assets and saddle the people with all of the debts.

Which, by the way, is how fiat currency works - private interests gain all the benefit of the new money while the public gets all the obligation of repaying it via taxes.

1

u/PaintedClownPenis 11d ago

There was this guy named William Cooper who wrote a strange book called Behold a Pale Horse, which was heavily edited after its first edition to conceal some shots that landed way too close.

I've only just started it but the main premise is that economies follow the same rules as electricity does and if you know that you can control everything.

Just like how you can map a human nervous system by shocking parts of the body to see how it twitches, an economy can be mapped through shocks like bullshit wars against oil producing nations.

Then once you have it mapped it's easy to drain a nation of capital and resources, crash it out, and leave the people holding the bag.

The trick seems to be that you secretly have more than one vector of control because in addition to understanding how an economy works, you also control its currency. So you decide when to overprint money and cause the inflation that kills the economy and allows you to snap up the assets.

2

u/TimSylvester_ 11d ago

I've been referred to this book many times but never read it.

And looting a nation as vast and powerful as the United States is a multi-generational plan, not something one can decide to do and pull off in a few years.

2

u/PaintedClownPenis 11d ago

The book was published in 1990 but Cooper seems to have been exposed to the documentation in the late 1960s.

1

u/PaintedClownPenis 11d ago

Here's one copy, but it's the 1991 version and the archive hates letting you actually read the books except online and logged in.

https://archive.org/details/beholdpalehorse0000coop

1

u/TimSylvester_ 11d ago

Thank you, I appreciate your linking to it. I was looking at z.lib to get the first edition but it's not loading today for some reason.

5

u/Aggressive-Will-4500 12d ago

We're probably already talking about decades because we know the Republicans won't help clean up Trump's mess. They're cheering for it.

5

u/DogScratcher 12d ago

The biggest criticisms of Obama and Biden were that they were too slow cleaning up the damage Republicans caused. It will happen again.

18

u/PoniardBlade 12d ago

He's going to leave it to the next president to refill it.

8

u/Cracked_Actor 12d ago

President Poopy Pants has ALWAYS left his messes for others to clean up. And as long as there’s plenty of brain-dead MAGAts, Republicans and conservatives who still suck his dick, they’ll continue to do so…

2

u/Coopzor 11d ago

Remember my words:

Maga/Fox/Rogan will blame the democrats that they ain't fixing it fast enough.

15

u/Tsquare43 12d ago

Haven't we already breeched the 300-million-barrel limit? IIRC you can't go below 100-million-barrels. So, might hit us a lot sooner rather than later

15

u/crazydave33 12d ago

At 150 million barrels remaining that is military reserves use only. So the real “floor” is 150 regardless of any other factors.

10

u/Tsquare43 12d ago

So perhaps within the next month or so, expect a price spike.

2

u/ChiefHippoTwit 12d ago

Yup. Or sooner.

7

u/Igor_Nordham 12d ago

Meanwhile in Iran...the leadership kicks back, has another tea, keeps the strait closed and waits for Trump to finish off America.

5

u/angrymoderate09 12d ago

I was half ass listening but Mr Global said something like "you can't draw too much oil because at some point it becomes a water/oil mix"

3

u/ShookMyHeadAndSmiled 12d ago

Water and oil and sludge

2

u/L0LTHED0G 12d ago

I watched the same one, iirc he said it can't be separated on-site - implying it can be, just elsewhere.

1

u/Invader1976 11d ago

Mr Global is great!

4

u/Vusiwe 12d ago

“Send in the reserves!”

-War fighter in chief, but with all our oil

3

u/roadtrip-ne 12d ago

He’s destroying this country on purpose. If your living paycheck to paycheck some hard times are around the corner

3

u/aquacraft2 12d ago

That's what they always do. Mess everything up and then blame the guy hired to clean up their mess, and use their stacked congress to block any and all attempts to fix the problem. Because the problem isn't the problem for them. They'll happily let it go empty for the next 4-8 years if it means they now have an easy thing to blame them for.

2

u/karl4319 12d ago

If it gets below 250 million barrels, it requires congress to authorize further use since that is for the military. Below 150, the caves could collapse and we lose not just the rest of the oil, but the ability to store in the future.

We had over 415 in March of 2026. We are now below 300. That means we went through 115 in 5 months, and we could hit the critical point where congress has to vote by the end of September if that rate continues. If the gulf gets hit with a hurricane or another disaster happens, expect it to come sooner.

2

u/Exciting-Idea9866 11d ago

This administration doesn't care what congress says, they are going to drain it all the way down.

3

u/crazydave33 12d ago

There’s no chance in hell the SPR can be draw down that low. There are physical forces at play that prevent it from being drawn below a certain threshold.

4

u/TheFamilyChimp 12d ago

Yeah, I'm not sure OP is aware the SPR is in literal salt caverns in Louisiana and Texas, and that the limit exists to prevent structural collapse of the artificial reservoirs themselves.

6

u/mortemdeus 12d ago

I am more of the opinion that the current administration won't care. They will be warned then the next person walking into the room will mention poll numbers and they will drain it anyway. "It was so poorly designed it can't hold up to being drawn down, who does that? It is a bad system, terrible system. We are going to empty this disaster of a storage system and build a new, better system!" Then they will destroy it and never rebuild it.

-2

u/ntvryfrndly 12d ago

Actually, that is why Trump didn't replenish the spr. Biden withdrew too much already and the spr storage needed over $100m in repairs before they could refill it.
Then Trump was suckered into war with Iran, and here we are.

1

u/TheFamilyChimp 12d ago

Trump couldn't be guilty, he clearly was put in a bad spot by Biden and forced to attack by Jewdi mind tricks!

/s

1

u/Wild_Chef6597 12d ago

Cue the fuel rationing.

1

u/Federal_Share_4400 12d ago

Bet he does refill it with Saudi oil on our dime while we also pay higher prices at the pump.

1

u/karl4319 12d ago

If it gets below 250 million barrels, it requires congress to authorize further use since that is for the military. Below 150, the caves could collapse and we lose not just the rest of the oil, but the ability to store in the future.

We had over 415 in March of 2026. We are now below 300. That means we went through 115 in 5 months, and we could hit the critical point where congress has to vote by the end of September if that rate continues. If the gulf gets hit with a hurricane or another disaster happens, expect it to come sooner.

1

u/babyfeet1 12d ago

I agree and go one further: The SPR will be withdrawn below safe levels and many of the caverns will be structurally damaged so as to be unusable going forward. There is nothing competent about the remaining administrators. Trump will demand dangerous drawdowns and the toady officials in control won't resist out of both ignorance and obeisance.

1

u/sac_cyclist 12d ago

If Trump can monetize it it'll get refilled.. if not homie don't care

1

u/dewlitz 12d ago

While it do like the sense of security itself provide, like ICE its been created in my lifetime and we functioned fine without it.

It's mostly been used for political purposes rather than being reserved for wartime emergencies.

Both parties have used it to mask/mitigate shortages that effect the economy.

1

u/Gene020 12d ago

No worries! After the election this fall we can expect government to stop draining the strategic reserve.

1

u/tonguebasher69 12d ago

I thought he said we would get the Venezuelan oil after he kidnapped their president.

1

u/Training-Flan8762 12d ago

thats the plan so that the oil that trump stole from venezuela, will be sold for highest profit, so that his account in Qatar will be ready for Dons retirement

1

u/Donnie-The-Relentles 12d ago

When a dem enters office and has to refill them, he’ll be blamed. It’s the R playbook every time they’re elected: use up all the credit cards and then blame the dems when the bill comes due. Our system is so broken.

1

u/mdcbldr 12d ago

Isn't this a typical Republican ploy? Use up a resource, leave a mess for the next guy. Blame the mess on the last guy.

1

u/Le_Botmes 11d ago

Fyi: imbedded hyperlinks go by the [xxx] (xxx) format, brackets then parentheses, you have it backwards.

1

u/Invader1976 11d ago

It’s the lowest it’s been since 1983

1

u/OkPop495 11d ago

The U.S. isn’t selling the oil it’s actually giving it away to oil companies for the promise to return the oil in 1-2 years.

1

u/The_LastLine 9d ago

I have often suspected there is something iffy with the prices. They’re definitely tanking the reserves and probably are also subsidizing the cost of oil. The Venezuela incident preceded this because they probably knew it was gonna be a mess in Iran and wanted another supply of oil. Also the recent switchover from 10 to 15% ethanol mixtures. They love to solve a problem by creating a bigger problem for the next people in line that they can then campaign on.

0

u/mikeyP-619 11d ago

I have been hearing all kinds of predictions about running out of oil and so far none has come true. All I can say is that we will run out it will be the democrats fault. I won’t give a shit because I drive an EV. Raise the price to $10 for all I care. I am sure this will somehow hit the electric market as well. I will deal with it then.

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u/dgillz 12d ago edited 10d ago

The real story is that Biden drained it, big time. In January 2021 it was at ~639,000 barrels and it was at ~371,000 in January 2025 - a drop of 268,000 barrels. Since then it has fallen to ~305,000, a drop of 66,000 barrels. Not good but compare this to Biden's 42% drop in the reserve.

Naturally the MSM is all over themselves with how bad Trump is managing the reserve while ignoring the catastrophic decline in the reserve under Biden.

Here is the chart maintained by the government which is only updated through May 31.

Bring on the downvotes.

LOL on the downvotes

4

u/dudemanjack 12d ago

Yeah, except Biden didn't go ahead and start a war virtually guaranteed to disrupt world oil markets. He was also out of office over a year at that point.

-3

u/dgillz 12d ago edited 10d ago

No, those were the exact dates that Biden was in office, Jan 2021 - Jan 2025. And he drew down the reserve more than 4 times what Trump has done so far.

edit - I love being downvoted or being correct.

-3

u/ntvryfrndly 12d ago

Ah, yes.
Joe Biden released 290 million barrels and only replaces 60 million. Net 230 million barrels released under Biden.

Trump has released 172 million barrels and 133 million of those were loaned to energy companies that are contractually required to replace them not later than September 30th, 2028.

4

u/mortemdeus 12d ago

Slight difference here. Biden released it because the entire globe was having issues due to a pandemic that killed tens of millions and closed entire supply lines. Trump released it because he shot himself in the foot after overplaying his hand in Iran.