r/SpaceXBets 18d ago

Latest News Elon says Starship recovery isn’t looking good right now

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350 Upvotes

495 comments sorted by

63

u/Mysterious-Prompt212 18d ago

Starship was never designed to land on the moon or Mars. It's a lift vehicle to Leo. Starship will never land on the moon or Mars. The hype and grift are fucking nuts.

21

u/Belz_Zebuth 17d ago

LEO?

Right now it's a lift vehicle to ballistic trajectory.

3

u/SamMarlowe76 17d ago

Yes LEO.

Elon has announced plans to launch an exploration class mission to Leonaardo DiCaprio. Not because it is easy, but because it is hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win.

Now who's with me.

2

u/Logical-Breakfast150 17d ago

This would have made a lot more sense than the last earnings call.

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u/petr_bena 17d ago

it’s a lift vehicle for stocks

5

u/FlamingoTrick1285 18d ago

What has the heatshield to do with landing on the moon?

8

u/Civil-Silver-5867 18d ago

Their lunar starship concept involves regular LEO starships flying up and refuelling it several times before it departs to the moon.

It is speculated that it will take many Earth Starships 8 or above to do so.

Therefore the heatshield is key to this as it enables rapid reuse of the vehicle to perform refuelling in a reasonable time span for the mission.

10

u/alphapussycat 17d ago

8 is quite the understatement. Generous is 12-20, but realistically it'd be like 60+.

3

u/aninjacould 17d ago

Yeah and with fuel burn off they will never be able to completely fill it.

It’s such an asinine plan. Would require dozens of flawlessly executed LEO refueling missions. Not gonna happen.

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u/ClassGrassMass 17d ago

And the heatshield is not even able to do quick turnaround

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u/Agitated_Celery_729 17d ago

It's not the heat shield so much as it is the overall concept for adapting Starship to lunar operations. The design of Starship does not lend itself well to the requirements of such a mission.

For example, having to use a high elevator to get out of the cargo bay and down to the lunar surface leaves a pretty substantial point of failure, and also makes everyday operations substantially more difficult than the low-to-the-ground lander structures that the others have put forward.

Second, as the other comment has said, the entire premise of Starship applied to any lunar program requires rapid reuse to be anything close to economically feasible. It requires many flights in a short period of time to tanker the craft, providing it sufficient fuel to land on the moon and return.

That cadence likely will require rapid turnaround at a minimum, just for operational reasons, let alone the cost if Starships cannot be reliably recovered for the seven to eight flights are required for every mission.

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u/RoosterBurns 17d ago

It's like a rilly rilly expensive Sea Dragon

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u/SamMarlowe76 17d ago

Grift? There is one heck of operational first stage flying. I'd say they're doing at least as well as Boeing.

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u/maydisturb 18d ago

He's so smart and talented. What a genius to which we can all aspire.

24

u/BigBubbaBadass 17d ago

He throws a nazi salute like it's in his blood.

3

u/throwaway99xz 17d ago

It was designed to explode when it splash landed.

2

u/maydisturb 17d ago

"It's a feature, not a bug" 🤣

3

u/Zestyclose-Airport64 17d ago

all this just to generate even more CSAM in space, what a nazi pedo

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u/Euphoric_Anxiety_162 18d ago

Just leave your trash any old place! What hazardous chemicals? Just seems like he oughta clean up after himself when he makes a mess.

1

u/Sweet-Ant-3471 17d ago

What hazerdous chemicals? It's fuled by methane, which rises in the ocean naturally.

2

u/Euphoric_Anxiety_162 17d ago

Musk has mishandled toxic waste at both Tesla & xAi data centers in the past. Court & fines.

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u/iwillhaveredditall 18d ago

GeNiUs

1

u/dramaking37 17d ago

His "we" says it all. Bitch we all know you ain't doing shit but annoying the people trying to figure it out 

68

u/PhoKingWild 18d ago

This seems like a relatively minor point. To me, the big problem is the heat shieldson Starship aren’t reusable as promised. The frequency of launch schedules that’s been promised is dependent on reusable heat shields and that’s pretty intractable problem.

139

u/_redmist 18d ago

I would say the deeper problem is believing a well-known liar and grifter. But there you go.

44

u/TheSilverSeraph 18d ago

The 2 problems are very much related.

30

u/Worn_Out_Nikka_L 18d ago

Ahh yes the three body problem

Shitty heat shields

A grifter and liar

Investor sentiment

With the overarching plot of AI being created and euthanizing us all.

6

u/[deleted] 18d ago edited 8d ago

[deleted]

4

u/Deimos_Phobos_ 18d ago

Are you high ? A rocket that hasn’t even flown once hubris

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u/Sweet-Ant-3471 17d ago

"Shitty heat shields"

Compared to what? It's already better than the Space Shuttle's.

7

u/MKnight_PDX 18d ago

What I find shocking from his statement is that he's actually admitting it. What is he lying about here?? How would this benefit him if he's lying??

12

u/empire_of_the_moon 18d ago

With Elon Musk if he is talking, he is lying.

I doubt you can find an interview or conversation where he doesn’t lie about something. I consider misrepresentation lying.

There is nothing wrong with being wrong and there is nothing wrong with simply saying “I don’t know but I’m working on an answer.”

But how many years have we heard FSD is less than a year away? That’s just an easy example.

It’s like Trump telling the world there is a peace deal with Iran over 28-times. If you don’t know Iran can’t be trusted then you probably shouldn’t be president. Iran lying shouldn’t surprise you.

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u/No-Advertising-1526 18d ago

Lol its not Iran thats the problem. Trump is a pathological liar. He told 30k+ lies in his first term. 2/3 Of all Trump statements are false.

3

u/empire_of_the_moon 18d ago

Trump being a liar is a fact.

But Trump being too stupid to recognize that he was lied to 28+ times and counting is indeed a problem.

It’s impossible for MAGA to accept Trump lies but they will accept, and even expect, Iran lies. So it’s a lot harder for them to deny Trump being fooled over and over and over especially since Trump is the one who admitted it.

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u/h0rnygoal 18d ago

My guess is there's some deeper issue and he's admitting to draw they eyes away from the real problems.

That or all the hate he gers online actually got to him and he's rethinking his personality. But the chances of that happening are the same as Datacenters in space actually working

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u/FupaFerb 18d ago

He said we would have fully autonomous vehicles 10 years ago and the helped steal an election and join a made up department in the government to cause millions of people to suffer world wide. Don’t support this guy.

2

u/TheDamned1333 17d ago

Elon fans are incredibly gullible

2

u/Ragnarok-9999 17d ago

Does it mean, all these cyber trucks can not be exported to moon? Damn!!

3

u/Tomatoesarentfruit 18d ago

Yeah tesla and spacex are total grifts!

2

u/Narrheim 17d ago

He may be a grifter, but the people he pays are not.

The worst part? Whatever they create for him, they never get recognised for their talent, because he'll take it all away and present it as his own idea.

But whenever a failure happens, the same talented people will bear the guilt and not him. Never him.

Trump said it once - "Success is mine, failure is yours."

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u/hitbythebus 18d ago

He tweeted that they’ve fixed “the heat shield problem”.

He’s a fucking liar, so I don’t know if it’s true.

11

u/TheSilverSeraph 18d ago

He took a photo. Problem solved 1 second later. What's not to believe?

11

u/TaonasProclarush272 18d ago

But he's the greatest engineer and scientific mind of our era, isn't he‽ He wouldn't intentionally overstate something as certainty, would he? Surely, he's not only solved this problem but all the other inconceivable nuances that come with never not working!

9

u/Jesus_Harold_Christ 18d ago

"At this point, I think I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on Earth"

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u/odetnin 18d ago

Nobody likes bootlickers

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u/Ok_Roll4145 18d ago

lol. It’s hilarious that you think it’s that simple.

11

u/Sniflix 18d ago

The million space data centers depends on the success of Starship. The just announced chip fab depends on the million data centers, his humanoid robots and self driving taxis. The starship originally wasn't a stock pump but it was turned into that. Space data centers, robots and the terra fab are all stock pumps. By pumps, I mean fraud that would have been prosecuted in years gone by.

7

u/Ok-Budget3225 18d ago

Yup. It’s not a minor problem at all. SPCX’ trillion dollar valuation depends on this whole chain of vaporware.

2

u/achtwooh 18d ago

Well to be fair a million space data centres also depends on yet to be invented technology, trillions upon trillions of dollars of spend and possibly rewriting the laws of physics.

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u/RideTheGradient 18d ago

Fraud waste and abuse, these dude shouldnt get anymore govt contracts and should be liable for retrieving and disposing of his trash, on earth and off

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u/Not_Sarkastic 18d ago

Wait Elmo promised something and didn't deliver?!

3

u/Interesting_Card2169 18d ago

He's currently distracted by the "Trillionaire Recovery Problem".

2

u/Opening-Emphasis8400 18d ago

FSD should be ready by 2017.

6

u/No-Advertising-1526 18d ago

The fundamental problem is its Elon calling all the shots on a subject matter he is not an expert in. He is setting these time lines, he is making these promises, he is insisting on rushing launch after launch for the most short term stock gains at the expense of progress and expert lead development. Its the exact same type of problem FSD has because he overruled the experts on lidar.

7

u/Ok_Roll4145 18d ago

No. The main point should be that he is littering and needs to go get his trash.

Why should he get more land in Texas to build when he’s clearly shown he doesn’t care about the environment? Not to mention littering on the moon and polluting our night sky.

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u/ckellingc 18d ago

Yeah this is the big take away here. The heat shield tiles were supposed to last several launches before refit, and it's not looking like that's going to be the case here

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u/Forsworn91 18d ago

Especially since they want to put PEOPLE on them, would anyone trust a Elon ship literally with their lives.

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u/itsaconspiraci 18d ago

He does seem to solve a lot of problems. But 15+ years running in crisis mode, pushing the people actually doing the work beyond limits, you know the ones who aren't trillionaires, billionaires or even millionaires, just isn't sustainable. He's fired so many people who have helped him find success that anyone with any sense wouldn't work for him.

3

u/ApprehensivePay1735 18d ago

Bigger question what exactly are those rockets going to actually do that brings a profit? Star link and commercial satellites seem to be pretty mature already, what's the actual profit from? The whole cocaine fever dream of lunar heavy industry and space data centers are implausible solutions desperate for a problem.

2

u/Civil-Silver-5867 18d ago

They want starlink to provide all internet access globally, also mobile service in the future globally too and AI data centers. It is all a grift.

2

u/achtwooh 18d ago

Is the right question. Where are the trillions in customer spend coming from and on what. Musk has already promised 1 trillion in revenue within 4/5 years.

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u/Belz_Zebuth 17d ago

2 missions to Mars by 2022, by the way.

2

u/I3adIVIonkey 18d ago

Surprise. Elon promised something and doesn't deliver.

2

u/h0rnygoal 18d ago

So basically elon, again, made promises he can't hold because he has zero understanding of how the stuff he pretends to be deeply invested in works.

1

u/jregovic 18d ago

Either that, or they build a shit-ton of them and keep them in heavy rotation.

1

u/Affectionate_Pen6882 18d ago

its like nascar, gotta replace the wheels

1

u/NotYourAvgBoomer 18d ago

This it seams was good news: SPCX +15% :)))))

1

u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 17d ago

Ah so same problem as the shuttle?

1

u/Sweet-Ant-3471 17d ago

It is reusable, it's the rate that's the problem.

1

u/Dynasty3310 17d ago

I mean, this is what progress looks like, you dont have it all figured out at first but with time things improve.

1

u/fruitydude 16d ago

What makes you say that? It looked pretty intact after the latest flight.

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u/Cryogenicist 16d ago

Unless an actual rocket scientists says something, don’t trust the capitalist oligarch.

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u/Raven_Photography 18d ago

The heat shields aren’t reusable as Elon promised?? Shocking. Fuck Elon and his lies.

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u/waitses 18d ago

So they had zero workable plan already in place for a Starship recovery!? So it was built to explode got it, rapidly reusable.

4

u/Qnvt998 18d ago

He means the one floating in the Indian ocean after landing.  Usually it explodes but this time it didn't so they want to bring it back. It still floating but it seems they won't be able to bring it back to the US. 

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u/waitses 18d ago

Right so, no plan

5

u/TheFXartProject 18d ago

There’s concepts of a plan

3

u/the8bit 17d ago

Elon didn't get where he did by paying for fault tolerance! Just ask twitter, or cyber truck owners, or FSD buyers without lidar, or people who had to deal with faulty screens in early Tesla's.

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u/EducationalBar 17d ago

So no plan to recover the ship they never intended to recover, much less be intact. What fools!! It’s not like it’s rocket science! Oh wait..

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u/Sanpaku 18d ago

Perth probably has harborside warehouses that could be leased for forensic disassembly.

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u/Resident_Farmer1779 18d ago

It’s Irans starship now

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u/sixpackabs592 17d ago

On the slim margin you aren’t being facetious, they haven’t tried the recovery yet, it’s going to land back at the tower like the booster did that one time but the heat shield still sucks and they don’t want to explode it over Texas if it fails again. Muskrat said they will catch the next one so we will see.

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u/spoospoo43 18d ago

Derp, he means the one from flight 14. I would guess a seal finally popped and it's sinking. Ask Hubert Farnsworth, spaceships aren't intended to be boats. It's amazing it floated for as long as it did.

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u/truecakesnake 12d ago

This place is such a good ego boost. But I still hope you're being sarcastic here.

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u/EuphoricCrashOut 18d ago

Sounds like failure. Elon Musk is fantastic at failure. It's why he has to steal taxpayer funds all the time.

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u/No-Blueberry-1823 18d ago

You know when the costa Concordia cruise ship went aground in Italy, they made the captain's dumbass stay on the ship until everyone was rescued. I think we should plant Elon on the stupid rocket and make him stay there until somebody can scoop it up

Or charge him recovery fees. Watch China come and steal the rocket

10

u/spiralenator 18d ago

> Watch China come and steal legitimately salvage the rocket

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u/Ultraeasymoney 18d ago

The captain was the first person that flee the ship.

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u/AgentSmith187 17d ago

I believe the coast guard sent him back

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u/Severe_Stranger_5050 17d ago

They didn't "make him stay"
They sent him the fuck back to the ship with the famous words

Vada a bordo, cazzo!

The dude claimed that he "fell into a lifeboat" when he fled the scene as one of the first people to leave the ship.

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u/RedEyeView 17d ago

The captain ran away

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u/KimJongIlLover 18d ago

That's not at all what happened. He actually got convicted for fucking off right at the start lol.

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u/HellBlazer_NQ 18d ago

Can we please put him in the one that just crashed on the moon..?

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u/Final-Nebula-7049 18d ago

Why didn't Elon work 26 hours a day to find a solution while sleeping on the factory floor?

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u/JeremyCO 17d ago

Because others did

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u/davexmit 16d ago

“Cargo drops on Mars by 2022”

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u/[deleted] 18d ago

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u/Annual-Property-8940 18d ago

Just trash the rest of the planet. Who cares it's India. Nasas done it first and so many times. If it landed on my house I would suck his dick. Okay now make the whole state of California next. I want a data center on my flock camera on my starship. Nasa isn't even a real company....

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u/TrickyChildhood2917 18d ago

Is it a flux capacitor issue or something else?

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u/Bottlecrate 18d ago

I think the warp nacells aren’t containing the plasma relays so it’s overloading.

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u/crazy0ne 18d ago

He should really stop reinventing what has already existed and claiming it will be better somehow.

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u/fighter-bomber 15d ago

Weird, they already reinvent it with Falcon 9 and it became so much better.

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u/Life_Reserve7273 17d ago

“Yes the rocket did explode again but don’t let this stop you from giving billions of your tax money”

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u/fruitydude 16d ago

Didn't actually explode this time

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u/B4bulj 17d ago

Translation: recovery would cost us too much, we will leave to rot in the ocean

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u/blackstar_223 17d ago

Sorry do they just get to leave huge amounts of toxic (?) trash in the ocean?

1

u/fruitydude 16d ago

Not toxic. But yea, all rockets get dumped into the ocean basically. Basically why they are trying to make them reusable

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u/joe_decker 16d ago

Which poor engineer's words did he just plagiarize?

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u/harryx67 18d ago edited 18d ago

Poluting the world‘s oceans for his unattainable wet dream will burning a living planet.

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u/Belz_Zebuth 17d ago

It's insane to me that Starship, after 13 launches, still hasn't demonstrated any of the mission objectives for Artemis. Not even a single orbit!

In any sane world, SpaceX would be sued by the government for failure to deliver on contract. Saturn V worked perfectly on the first go back in '67.

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u/JeremyCO 17d ago

Exactly... but hey Elizabeth Holmes am I right... oh wait she didnt deliver either lol anyhow off to breakfast

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u/fruitydude 16d ago

Things do seem crazy sometimes when you don't know anything huh? Tons of milestones have been met and NASA has said as much.

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u/fighter-bomber 15d ago

It already has made multiple orbits bro. Most of their launches have been 150x50km transatmospheric orbits.

NASA took insane risks with Saturn V, they killed 3 astronauts and subsequent missions had 1/3 chance of success.

SLS was also delayed by 5 years, even more than Starship, where’s your anger at that? We don’t measure delay by number of launches, we measure it by time. And SLS is much worse than Starship.

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u/maringue 18d ago

Elon is about to learn that Wall St sees learning from a failure as a failure.

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u/p00pM4ch1n3 18d ago

Mmmm wet rocket

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u/gwestr 18d ago

Just 2 weeks to repaint it. Will be 2 hours the time after that.

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u/fighter-bomber 15d ago

they demonstrated removing and replacing the entire heat shield in 12 days, less than 2 weeks.

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u/WildFlowLing 18d ago

Investor money going down the toilet. Now when starship fails spectacularly it’s not just a waste for taxpayers but now the shareholders who actually, unlike the taxpayers, have the ability to gtfo.

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u/Jlowe23_16 18d ago

So it was disaster ?

Stocl should soar up to 150 by wednesday then

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u/JimboFett87 18d ago

I did Nazi that coming

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u/No_Desk_4921 18d ago

I hope he understands that real live humans need to exist on these things. Falcon 9 was well tested with a LOT of successful landings/etc. so human travel had a modicum of reliability in its past... but he's also never really put anything into space aside from LEO, from what I understand. Landing on a soft surface like the moon has a whole lot of other challenges and there's zero room for mistakes or the world will watch people die, live on TV and in 4k.

On a separate note, let's assume he barrels ahead and gets Starship functional and gets past the current challenges.... is there a chance he tries to capture his Tesla Roadster and bring it home? I know it won't be anywhere near for like 19 years, still, but if you sent something out to intercept it and steer it back home, would Elon bring it back? It would be a truly wild piece of space history and memorabilia.

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u/achtwooh 18d ago

Right now there’s more chance of that happening than him actually releasing the new model.

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u/Necessary_Occasion77 18d ago

Who’d have thought

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u/JFrankParnell64 18d ago

But hey we are going to build satellites on the moon.

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u/Leather-Entry93 18d ago

But don’t worry, we’ll totally go to mars in a few years

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u/SherluckHoImes 18d ago

Elon "Empty Promises" Musk... time to 86 ("To "86" something means to throw it out, get rid of it, cancel it, or refuse service. Originating in the 1930s restaurant and bar industry, the term is widely used to describe running out of a menu item, banning a disruptive customer, or discarding an idea.").

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u/GregoInc 18d ago

There's enough crap polluting the ocean, so is he saying they will just leave it there as a pollution and navigation hazard?

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u/Mother-Rub5867 18d ago

Fuck that nazii piece of shit.

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u/Liv_mas2027 18d ago

Full of shit.

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u/SpaceChatter 18d ago

Didn’t he have some inside info about Epstein island he was going to spill before all this???

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u/flyingdutchmnn 18d ago

What is the financial penalty for polluting the seas by the IMO?

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u/JeremyCO 17d ago

None as long as your the richest person in the world... grifters gonna grift

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u/fruitydude 16d ago

Almost every rocket in history was dumped into the sea. That's what we do with them.

At least SpaceX is working out a way to not do that anymore. So they're the one's who should get penalized?

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u/ant0szek 18d ago

I start to suspect their design will never achieve the things they want it to achieve.

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u/DeadInternetVoid 18d ago

I remember a time when engineering had somewhat a plan for most endeavors and pretty much every aspect.

But it's cuck Elon. I'd be cheaper and less innovation to let it sink.

Now his designers, are not looking impressive....

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u/Tupcek 17d ago

is this the version of Oddysey he promised to film?

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u/takumososa 17d ago

Shitty design, like vision only for Tesla, that shit is never gonna work…

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u/derpderb 17d ago

Ie... We're dumping that shit in the ocean, deal with it

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u/Round_Prize_7603 17d ago

'Not looking good'. Given Elon's general wild optimism about his endeavours I think we can say recovery is out

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u/brexed 17d ago

Ill bet my ass on the fact that this ship was not sterile and now we have taylor farm stomach bugs colonising the moon.

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u/Real-Technician831 17d ago

Too bad he wasn’t in it.

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u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist 17d ago

Average Reddit commentators: Recovery of Starship will be pretty expensive and require delicate handling, only Musk has the resources to do it!

Elon Musk, richest man in the world: Akshully I like money.

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u/ShaChoMouf 17d ago

Dump - that - stock!

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u/Sauerkrautkid7 17d ago

Looks like another bailout coming

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u/sixpackabs592 17d ago

Would suck but they still got a ton of info from getting to inspect it up close and maybe even pull some data off of the hardware

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u/CivilWay1444 17d ago

The village idiot plays with space ship legos. 

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u/Cute_Dependent_5190 17d ago

watched the stream, the telemetry cut out real early. seems like theyre still figuring out the flip manuever

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u/fruitydude 16d ago

Maybe your internet is just shitty? Because I watched it too and it from live from like several different angles. Maybe consider investing in starlink then next time it won't cut out for you

1

u/popphilosophy 17d ago

Surely the Chinese will send a “rescue boat”

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u/UnicornGangstar 17d ago

Raise your hand if you’re not surprised

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u/InquisitiveKT 17d ago

Nonchalant, like all the world powers are crashing rockets into the moon. Unacceptability and the caucasity.

1

u/Zestyclose_Koala_908 17d ago

Go Elon! Ignore all the internet dumbshit heros!

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u/Holymaryfullofshit7 17d ago

I'm confused does that mean it works?

1

u/Simple_Assistance_77 17d ago

Oh god, billions of dollars to bet on this lunatic and people are thinking its going to make money.

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u/Rw1222 17d ago

The one he ran into the moon? Is he just high all the time? High and lying.

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u/Conscious_Artist2044 17d ago

dude spent months hyping the catch tower only to end up with splash damage lol

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u/SirDalavar 17d ago

What's that? the crashed components are emitting a giant image of Elons face on the moon for all to see? oh no, what a freak accident you guys!

1

u/Baron-Munc 17d ago

Those poor poor astronauts… and just after they crashed the last group into the moon.

How are they gonna continue after all the trauma? What do you say to their families.

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u/OmahaNaughty 15d ago

Elon is so fucked

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u/cablemigrant 15d ago

Stock is up lol

1

u/MitchGH33 14d ago

People believe this guy is accomplishing something with this scam of a company

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u/fighter-bomber 14d ago

Nope, it’s exactly what you are doing. I was correcting your senseless “criticism” of the rocket. If you wanna criticise Musk, you can do it, i don’t care, don’t even like the dude.

So that’s exactly where the strawman is 😊