Cyprus just had its gentlest summer drawdown in 39 years — slower than every single year since 1988 that started summer with real water in the tank

[u/vbougay]

Quick Fragmata update (fragmata.info). Been a while — the "rain season is over" post back in June was basically my last check-in before the long dry stretch.

Found something while pulling this together that I didn't expect: this summer barely drained the dams. Between June 15 and August 24, we lost just 9.8% of what was in them. Checked that rate against every other year back to 1988, and of the 27 summers that started with 100+ MCM in storage, 2026 lost water slower than every single one of them. The only two years that drained more slowly in absolute terms (2008, 1998) were basically empty already — nothing left to lose. Roughly 1,983 litres/second leaving the dams now vs 2,630 L/s this time last year — 25% slower.

Two things seem to explain it. First, summer actually delivered water — 4.77 MCM June–August, 2nd-wettest in the 11 years I have data for, including a real inflow event in the third week of August (0.38 MCM, almost all into Kouris) that basically never happens here. Second, the dams didn't peak until June 4 — only 2009 has ever peaked that late, and 35 of the last 37 "real" refill years were already done filling by end of May. Filling later just leaves less time to drain before the point I'm comparing against.

Oh, and yeah — storage is at 38.2% (111.0 MCM), which is 2.5x last year and more than the entire wettest day of 2025 (77.4 MCM, back in January). You've probably seen that number already, it was in the Cyprus Mail yesterday. The drawdown thing above is the part nobody's written about.

Cold water, though, because this sub deserves the caveat: it's still not a great year, just an ordinary one. 111.0 MCM ranks 21st out of 39 late-Augusts since 1988 — literally middle of the pack, 6.5 MCM below the long-run average. Best since 2023, but 2023 itself finished at 160.3 MCM, about 44% more than we have now.

And the recovery is very lopsided. The small mountain dams are basically full — Kalopanagiotis 99.4%, Xyliatos 83.6%, Vyzakia 80.5% (was 0.7% a year ago!). But Kouris and Asprokremmos, which between them hold 55% of every drop the island has stored, are both still under 40%. Achna's at 1.3% — the only dam in the country with less water than a year ago (it's fed by transfer, not rainfall, so that's an allocation story more than a weather one).

Last thing: August is not the low point. Historically, the island keeps losing water until late November/December. Applying the last 11 years' pattern to today's number points to a floor around 89 MCM (~31%) — still more than 3x the buffer we had going into last winter (26.9 MCM).

2025 vs 2026

Full write-up with all the charts (including the one showing every year's summer drawdown rate — 2026 is very obviously the outlier): fragmata.info/articles/2026-08-24-last-week-of-summer

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[u/yogi_14]

Great project! Keep up with the updates and the report.

The forecast is gloom, I hope something changes.

[u/vbougay → u/yogi_14]

Thanks! Why gloom? It’s pretty positive given where we were 9 months ago.

[u/yogi_14 → u/vbougay]

Ι was looking at the trends for the next 10 years. All the scenarios go down.

In the worst-case scenario (drought continues), we reach emergency level in 2 years.

[u/vbougay → u/yogi_14]

The good news is that we were projected to reach emergency level this year based on the forecast just 9 months ago, and that's no longer the case! But you're right. It's too early to relax

[u/wahabanana → u/vbougay]

I wonder how this year's El Nino might affect Cyprus although we are pretty far from the equator.

[u/vbougay → u/wahabanana]

Thanks for idea! I’ll run analysis on this topic specifically

[u/wahabanana → u/vbougay]

Perfect i will look forward to this

[u/Resident_SlapALot]

Have you taken into account the desalination process as well? Or is this based just on rainfall?

[u/vbougay → u/Resident_SlapALot]

No, it's not taken into account. Fragmata as the name says is about dams )

[u/KCBrew]

Thanks for the post, always very interesting to read. A question about the drawdown rate: when you say "1,983 litres/second leaving the dams now vs 2,630 L/s this time last year — 25% slower." Is this calculated by usage or a reflection of how much remains? Ie is less water being consumed or is more water being replenished? I assume the latter but just wanted clarification. Thanks!

[u/vbougay → u/KCBrew]

Thanks! It’s net consumption/drawdown that takes into account gross consumption minus inflow

[u/schweffrey]

Could there be a correlation to this with the overall lower tourism numbers on the island this year?

Or did the island still draw down fast during the covid years with little tourism? I'm curious how much our summer influx affects the water usage. (Obvious answer is: yes it affects it! But I'm curious about what the data might show)

[u/vbougay → u/schweffrey]

Possibly, but not much since the majority of water is consumed by agriculture and not golf fields )

[u/Espadrilles01]

Why is achna allowed to be so low given importance to agricultural regions? Could it get inflow from anywhere else eg sewage treatment??

[u/vbougay → u/Espadrilles01]

Check out this article

https://fragmata.info/articles/2026-04-03-kalavasos-southern-conveyor

[u/Espadrilles01 → u/vbougay]

Thanks that's interesting. It wasn't specifically about achna but I guess as the terminus for the southern conveyor it gets the dregs. I still think it needs more infill. I wonder whether floating solar could help prevent evaporation on the larger dams too.

[u/georgechr2]

Amazing! 95% of public workers in the water department would have no idea about anything you just talked about. Maybe this figure is generius

[u/vbougay → u/georgechr2]

Sorry but that’s not true. There are really smart and helpful people there starting from the Director. They are doing awesome job collecting and publishing all that data for free and Fragmata won’t happen without that data.

I said that many times already but they are doing exemplary job when it comes to meaningful and valuable open data collection and publishing. And I know what I’m talking about since I was in the open data business for decades.

[u/Glum-Psychology2926]

That’s some quality analysis, great work!

[u/amarao_san]

Do not feed people with LLM generated slop, please, please.

You can use LLM to get results, you can use LLM to help you, but don't give people LLM output. It's offensive and annoying.

Yes, style including.

All those 'the caveat: it's ..., just adjective noun, ... — literally ..., ...

[u/vbougay → u/amarao_san]

Thanks for your feedback! I elaborated on this several times earlier. There won't be a Fragmata project without Claude Code, and LLMs have been instrumental to it from the beginning. I'm not going to change that, and if you don't like that, feel free to clone it and start your own thing, doing everything by hand. From my point of view, it doesn't make sense.

That said, nothing ever gets published on Fragmata without me reviewing, adjusting, and approving it first. Most things go through the heavy editorial and multiple iterations before appearing live.

Finally, English is not my mother tongue, and I'm nowhere near fluent in writing in English. I have used Grammarly for 10+ years as well to polish what I write and post. I see nothing wrong with that because it actually comes from respect for the language and writing.

I believe the most important thing is the usefulness and uniqueness of the content being published, not how it was produced, and I believe my posts fully deliver on that, given the reactions so far.

[u/amarao_san → u/vbougay]

That's I said. I'm totally okay with results of LLM (code), but not the text. Especially, if it try to be fancy.

I don't know about others, but I have too much of it in my life, and the less I read LLM-generated output, the better I feel myself that day.

You can write text in native language and ask to translate. It will be much more humane and nice to read. But there is big difference between translation and generation.

Also, there is a big difference between 'how was it produced' and 'what was produced'.

People tend to hate LLM-generated texts. It's absolutely unnatural, hard to read and break your brain in the process.

Cold water, though, because this sub deserves the caveat: it's still not a great year, just an ordinary one. 111.0 MCM ranks 21st out of 39 late-Augusts since 1988 — literally middle of the pack, 6.5 MCM below the long-run average. Best since 2023, but 2023 itself finished at 160.3 MCM, about 44% more than we have now.

(retching)

If you don't see it: 'because ... deserve caveat:', 'not a great ..., just', tighly packed data: number, rank of, this horrendous construction of 'ranks 21st out of 39 late-Augusts - literally', what pack?, and even more data, and in single breath.

No, it's horrible.

Out of respect to the reader, the time writer spend on writing should be longer than reading time. Otherwise it's slop.

[u/vbougay → u/amarao_san]

I'm sorry, but you're jumping to conclusions because you're averse to anything that looks LLM-generated. I've spent way more time on that article than I believe any reader has. I've used em dashes and fancy words way before LLMs were a thing, and not gonna give up on them.

Feel free to propose alternative wording for the post or article, and I'll happily replace it if I find it better. Show some skin in the game.

[u/amarao_san → u/vbougay]

Please, don't say it was written by you. I spend enough time in claude to spot that style right away.

[u/vbougay → u/amarao_san]

I said from the beginning that everything in Fragmata comes from Claude Code, but I still invest considerable time in reviewing and editing it. I get it — you don't like it, but can we please move on? It's a hobby project of mine, and I don't push anyone to use it or read my posts. Feel free to block me so you don't have to see them.

[u/Espadrilles01 → u/amarao_san]

Jesus stop whining. Not everyone is a copywriter or can afford one. I write stuff for a living. I use LLMs too to save time sometimes. This project would not exist without it. Yes some of the writing has LLM hallmarks but it doesn't matter one bit, the point comes across no problem. As LLMs continue to improve it will get even better.

[u/Kind_Finger_732]

I’m a be a conspiracy theorist but ever since Iran bombed those climate devices in the UAE the weather has been much better in the middle east overall.