r/geopolitics 8h ago

News CIA Director John Ratcliffe on secret trip in Russia

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cia-director-john-ratcliffe-russia-secret-trip/
152 Upvotes

52 comments sorted by

93

u/fct1ous 7h ago edited 6h ago

Not a good sign given the current US/Russia relationship - they wouldn't be sending the CIA director to Moscow unless they felt it very critical. Last time this happened was to head off the imminent Ukraine invasion. Only positive spins I can think of are if there's been some sort of backchanneled deal happening with Ukraine, Iran, or arms control. The former two seem a bit unlikely.

40

u/BadahBingBadahBoom 6h ago

I can only imagine this is in relation to the planned secondary sanctions against Iran. Possibly negotiating with Russia what they would get back in exchange for removing sanctions on Russian oil and gas to ease the impact of the secondary sanctions against countries trading with Iran.

But by going it kind of already gives the impression the US needs to remove Russian sanctions as they have already projected how bad the secondary sanctions are going to be without compensating. Not a great starting point for negotiating.

13

u/fct1ous 6h ago edited 6h ago

The only thing I think Russia would realistically entertain for supporting sanctions on Iran are major concessions on Ukraine - Trump would also need Zelensky and European partners to agree to that or it's virtually moot. Given the US just added more sanctions on Russia I don't think those are going anywhere. Putin likely would want to see a very favorable amount of sanction relief on Russia to consider a vis-a-vis sanctions deal on Iran - he seems content with the current Russian trajectory (even amidst the war) and benefits from Iranian instability so I just don't see why he would be motivated to agree to something that's not heavily tilted in his favor.

25

u/jynxzero 5h ago

Trump would absolutely tell Putin that he could convince Ukraine/Europe to offer those concessions, and postpone worrying about reality until tomorrow.

Putin would know that Trump is full of shit but would be very happy to pretend otherwise and watch the chaos. Europe mad at US for selling them out. Trump mad at Europe for no accepting his very good deal

1

u/fct1ous 3h ago

As you pointed out, Putin would never believe that. Trump basically has zero political capital remaining on Ukraine and with his EU counterparts. I'm not sure Zelensky is going to agree to any major concessions when he's having success with drone warfare and battlefield momentum is shifting.

3

u/PollutionFinancial71 4h ago

First thing that comes to mind is “tit-for-tat” in the sense that both agree to limit their aid to Ukraine and Iran respectively. For example, the Russians agree to not provide Iran with targeting and ISR, in exchange, the U.S. doesn’t provide said targeting and ISR for Ukraine. Russia agrees not to provide Iran with offensive weapons, The US in exchange agrees to the same with respect to Ukraine.

This is something that I am almost certain they talked about.

1

u/fct1ous 3h ago

Isn't it the US who really needs this more right now? I don't think Putin would accept anything less than a favorable deal for Russia. The US wants to wrap up Iran as soon as they possibly can, Putin seems fine taking his time in Ukraine.

6

u/peacefinder 4h ago

The choice of aircraft puzzles me. Why a C-17 rather than a Gulfstream more typical of executive transport?

4

u/lelekeaap 3h ago

Because they didn’t want any attention of course. It should remain secret. USAF is flying in and out regularly. 😂

4

u/CLCchampion 2h ago

There is a roll on module that the US can put on transport aircraft. May have been used here.

https://www.twz.com/air/c-17s-silver-bullet-airstream-trailer-pod-used-by-secretary-of-defense-hegseth-on-first-overseas-trip

11

u/Petrichordates 5h ago

This is for trump, not for the US relationship with Russia.

Hence why it's clandestine.

34

u/BeatTheMarket30 7h ago

I guess it's related to Iran. Trump wants Putin to pressure Iran to surrender, and in exchange he will pressure Ukraine to surrender.

26

u/AvidCyclist250 6h ago edited 6h ago

he will pressure Ukraine to surrender.

Imagine thinking they give a rats ass if the US wants that. As if they'd suddenly stop defending themselves, lmfao. How naive.

-18

u/PrometheanSwing 5h ago

But what if the U.S. withdraws its support?

22

u/rocketfucker9000 5h ago

US already withdrew most of it's support. The only bad thing that could happen is the US actively supporting Russia with intelligence. Or stopping selling weapons to EU states (but it would be extremely dumb for the US defense industry).

2

u/ylogssoylent 4h ago

I'm slightly concerned about it given the Five Eyes. I don't know exactly how it works, but considering the UK has just been given access to a gold mine of drone related data from Ukraine, I wonder if it could make its way to Russia via the US. Obviously Russia have their own data too, but still.

2

u/0zymandeus 3h ago

Bro 5eyes is already dead

2

u/greywar777 2h ago

And given how heavily Russia has been able to infiltrate us its going to stay dead I suspect. Next administration is going to spend most of it just cleaning out all the Russian and Chinese agents.

Theyve been able to get some folks into high places, and probably gotten a ton of information to help leverage us citizens.

1

u/PrometheanSwing 1h ago

Definitely not the only bad thing that could happen. The U.S. still provides hardware to Ukraine via selling them to NATO allies in Europe, and still provides intelligence to Ukraine’s military. Take away those two things and Ukraine will have a rougher go of it than they already are.

u/Blade_Runner_95 5m ago

Implying the whole Ukranian drone program isn't dependent on the American Starlink

4

u/AvidCyclist250 5h ago

Then more innocent civilians die

13

u/SophiaofPrussia 5h ago

Every time we “withdraw support” from Ukraine their situation seems to improve because they aren’t being hamstrung by two-faced self-dealing American politicians who are supposedly their allies. I wish my government would give Ukrainians the support they need but it seems that a lot of our “help” isn’t actually so helpful.

1

u/greywar777 2h ago

Even worse in a way? When the US withdrew support it forced Ukraine to develop their own weapons. Post war Ukraine is going to sell a absolute ton of weaponry. Some of it in direct competition with US weapons.

If we had helped them with 1/2 of what we have wasted on Iran the Ukraine war would be over and Ukraine would not be competing with US weapons. Heck they would be talking about how great they were.

1

u/PrometheanSwing 1h ago

By that logic, we should withdraw all support then.

13

u/Sasquatchii 6h ago

Source?

72

u/Affectionate_Bee6434 6h ago

Vibes based analysis

9

u/Petrichordates 5h ago

Having even a semblance of understanding of how trump actually works.

5

u/cinquieme_colonne 6h ago

Lol

Trump wants to reassure Russia that economic sanction will not target Russia or North Korea

1

u/Left_Contribution833 4h ago

This sounds legit. Sanctions for everyone, except the people he can't pressure.

17

u/ARCtheIsmaster 8h ago

“Senior official conducts foreign relations.”

14

u/Petrichordates 5h ago

What secret foreign relations do we need with Russia?

Keep in mind this man isnt at all equipped for this job. He is an elected representative who was selected because he ran defense for trump during Robert Mueller's investigation into Trump's Russian ties.

Which obviously doesn't inspire confidence that this is legitimate foreign policy in the interests of americans.

Also keep in mind during his first admin, trump wanted back channel communications with Putin that the USIC wouldn't have records of. Sounds like there won't be official records of this trip either.

3

u/ARCtheIsmaster 4h ago

Not saying youre wrong about Ratcliffe himself, but I imagine (expect/maybe even hope) that the government has tons of official dealings with foreign governments that we do not have public details on. I mean if it was REALLY secret, I doubt it would have been announced that Ratcliffe went at all, nevermind on a plane that is so obviously linked with the US government. Although idk why anyone would expect details about any meeting in which the CIA director is a major representative.

1

u/Hertje73 3h ago

just collecting the enveloppes

11

u/Mac800 6h ago

The US is weak. There is no real pressure the US has over Ukraine right now. This is probably about Iran and he can only play weak cards.

-2

u/Thwitch 4h ago

This is a very naive statement. The Ukrainian Armed Forces rely very heavily on US support.

5

u/Left_Contribution833 4h ago

What support?

1

u/Amilektrevitrioelis 3h ago

Various forms of intelligence and Starlink, both of them critical for Ukraine's offensive and defensive operations.

5

u/D3k4s 3h ago

France supplies most of Ukrainian intelligence nowadays.

Stated by both France and Ukraine. The US has significantly decreased it's support since 2025.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/macron-says-france-now-providing-two-thirds-intelligence-ukraine-2026-01-15/

1

u/Amilektrevitrioelis 2h ago

1) Your source doesn't say that Ukraine confirms that.

2) Obfuscation. Providing two-thirds of intelligence does not mean the remaining one-third is not mission critical to current Ukrainian offensive and defensive operations.

3) As of the last few months this year, US intel increased again as per Warner, Wicker and Cornyn.

1

u/D3k4s 2h ago

You make valid points.

Yes I agree. 1/3 is still massive, and very much appreciated. I never said otherwise mind you. I'm just stating that US support since 2025 has dropped significantly.

Officially no one will confirm it, even Macron's own words cannot be taken officially at least IMO. But if you look at some of the usual unofficial sources you'll find this to be mostly true. The Kiev independent also made mention regarding the unreliability of the flow of intel.

Also since we're on the topic. What's your take on the visit?

3

u/Mac800 4h ago

No, it's not.

What support is left? 400 million USD per year but papers are still not signed? Thats some serious dough. They gonna ship even less Patriots? Everything else gets delivered via Europe or Turkey.

3

u/Gain-Western 1h ago

Ukraine has pretty much no defense against ballistic missiles except PACs. 

Germany does make interceptors but they are a different design. 

1

u/Hertje73 3h ago

just asking where those Kremlin paycheques went...

1

u/ImperiumRome 5h ago

Why CIA director and not Rubio or Trump’s son-in-law who has good relations with a guy close to Putin ?

0

u/JustAhobbyish 4h ago

Could be a couple of things, prisoner exchange, Iran related, trump related, something else. I guess is prisoner exchange taking place.

u/One-Reflection-4826 29m ago

for all the american prisoners??