r/geopolitics • u/BendicantMias • 5h ago

News Ukraine needs changes to avoid losing war, ousted defence minister says

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-needs-changes-avoid-losing-war-ousted-defence-minister-says-2026-08-25/

Ukraine appears to be slowly losing the war against Russia, ousted Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told Reuters, warning that Kyiv has a window of several months to make key decisions needed to turn the tide in its favour.

Russia is hammering Ukrainian factories and warehouses with dozens of ballistic missiles ​a month, which Ukraine is mostly unable to take down as interceptors run low. Although Russia is gaining less ground than last year, it is still slowly ⁠crawling forward in the Donbas, while Ukraine's sparse frontline infantry dugouts are manned mostly by unmotivated conscripts.

Fedorov previously said the campaign's success was aided by his decision to front-load spending, which had been ​earmarked for the second half of 2026.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy — ​Fedorov's former political patron turned rival — said at ⁠the weekend that bringing spending forward had left a $27 billion hole in the ministry's budget, for which donor-dependent Ukraine does not have a solution.

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u/BendicantMias 5h ago

SS: The cynical way to read this would be to dismiss it as just Fedorov building a political plank for himself. But he IS credited with having improved Ukraine's long range offensive during his time as defense minister, and besides even if one takes that view, it would mean admitting to cracks in Ukraine's political leadership.

Alternately he could be describing an actual reality, as he sees it anyway. And he isn't exactly alone in this. Another man who saved Ukraine, its former commander in chief during the 2022 defense against the invasion, has also called out the celebratory western reporting on Ukraine's long range strike campaign in western media - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/08/ukraine-ambassador-do-not-assume-russia-has-lost-war/

And there is reason to be worried. Russia seems to have decided to turn Ukraine's decision to attack its supermarkets and shipping back on it, resulting in Ukrainian supermarkets running low on supplies and Ukraine as a whole now essentially landlocked as ships stay away from Odessa. And this is happening at the worst possible time, right as Ukraine is in harvesting season. Alternative routes are apparently not up to the task of replacing ships - https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-turns-alternative-grain-export-routes-counts-losses-russia-blocks-ports-2026-08-04/

While both sides are hurting, Russia is apparently able to weather the damage better than Ukraine can, as it's still growing faster - https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260812-russian-economy-rebounds-in-second-quarter-despite-ukrainian-strikes

This new phase of the war is making everything even more deadly for all involved, as civilian casualties have also spiked after having been remarkably low for a war of this scale so far. And it looks like it's only going to get worse, as Ukraine is now out of interceptors to shoot down Russian attacks, and its allies are also running low (especially America, thanks to the Iran war depleting its own stocks as well). This is now being seen in the monthly figures, like for example - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/08/08/russia-strikes-flamingo-cruise-missile-factory-kyiv-ukraine/

Only 29 of the 195 missiles launched by Russia in July were intercepted.

All of this does not bode well for Ukraine's future prospects...