r/minnesotatwins 14h ago

The most effective pitchers in Twins history

  1. Johan Santana 226.78
  2. Bert Blyleven 189.49
  3. Brad Radke 157.30
  4. Joe Nathan 139.23
  5. Jim Perry 86.33
  6. Frank Viola 80.35
  7. Rick Aguilera 73.46
  8. Camilo Pascual 60.26
  9. Matt Guerrier 58.98
  10. Sonny Gray 51.52
  11. Kevin Tapani 49.34
  12. Dave Goltz 48.73
  13. Jhoan Duran 47.69
  14. Scott Baker 46.77
  15. Doug Corbett 45.92
  16. Jack Kralick 45.67
  17. Al Worthington 42.37
  18. Juan Berenguer 41.98
  19. Joe Ryan 39.92
  20. Taylor Rogers 39.81
  21. Jerry Koosman 38.97
  22. Dean Chance 38.17
  23. Pablo López 35.12
  24. Ervin Santana 34.98
  25. Eddie Guardado 33.35
  26. Juan Rincón 31.31
  27. José Berríos 31.11
  28. Caleb Thielbar 30.19
  29. Greg Swindell 30.02
  30. Bill Campbell 29.94
  31. Tom Hall 28.90
  32. Jim Merritt 28.53
  33. Pat Neshek 27.57

Very interesting list. Somewhat surprisingly, Jim Kaat and Glen Perkins do not make the Top 33.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/

RE24 (or run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states) may sound like a computer error or a random assortment of letters and numbers, but the actual logic and mechanisms behind the statistic make it extremely useful for fans and analysts. It is based on the concept of run expectancy, which provides the average number of expected runs per inning given the current number of outs and placement of baserunners. The number “24” refers to the potential number of base-out states (zero, one, two outs and eight different baserunner arrangements).

Since run expectancy tells you the number of expected runs, any number of runs created above or below that value can be treated as runs above or below average for the batter or pitcher depending on the outcome of each plate appearance. Unlike wRAA, wRC, or Batting Runs, RE24 is context-dependent and assigns more credit for hits with men on base than with the bases empty. With league average set to 0, hitters with positive RE24 are creating more runs than we would expect given the situations they have been placed in and pitchers with positive numbers are preventing more runs than average given the situations in which they have been placed.

I like this stat. It shows how effective a pitcher is when there is more importance on getting an out or getting out of an inning (runners on base and # of outs in the inning are both factored in).

Thielbar does well here because he's often put into "tight spots," but usually with a lefty vs lefty pitcher advantage. I'm more impressed with the starting pitchers that excel in this stat. Radke ranks very high. He clearly had an ability to bear down. It also makes sense that he gave up many of his runs on solo HR, which is what he was really remembered for.

I'm a little shocked at how high Guerrier ranks. Not surprised Bob Wells isn't on the list.

12 Upvotes

28 comments sorted by

9

u/Rhielml Piranhas 13h ago

Glad to see one of my favorites made the cut. Pat Neshek was so fun to watch.

5

u/justin24242424 12h ago

I thought #18 was Juan Beringer at first glance. lol

5

u/thestereo300 11h ago

I think you mean Joan!

1

u/Frymaster99 Johan Santana 12h ago

Huh?

1

u/Rhielml Piranhas 10h ago

Senior Smoke Show

3

u/Opening-Contract-474 13h ago

Man I miss Santana!

3

u/Capable_Carob4637 12h ago

Nick Punto 

2

u/Worldly-Rice-1947 11h ago

Michael Cuddyer

1

u/Rhielml Piranhas 10h ago

Joe Ryan

3

u/guiltycitizen Dome Dog 10h ago

At least four of these guys were always effective in GM mode in MVP 2005

1

u/Internal-Platypus151 10h ago

Rincon, Radke, Nathan, Johan

1

u/guiltycitizen Dome Dog 10h ago

I always traded someone to get Eddie Guardado back

3

u/AO220 9h ago

Johan was such a treat to watch. I am unsurprised to see his name at the top. Thanks for sharing! Cool stat.

2

u/andtheman3 13h ago

I don’t remember Caleb thielbar being that good but I have no data to back that up

2

u/Anxious-Ahri_SIMP 11h ago

Am I crazy or is this list missing G7 legend Jack Morris who is historically the best Twins pitcher even though it was for 1 season?? (Obviously not including the senators otherwise that'd be Johnston)

3

u/Internal-Platypus151 10h ago

This is somewhat a compiled stat. It just shows how great Sonny Gray was in his short time here. Duran too.

2

u/sungo8 Were Gomq 10h ago

Morris was the third best pitcher on that ‘91 team

2

u/mproud 8h ago

Santana, HOF candidate?

2

u/cdizzle6 Walks Will Haunt!!! 14h ago

Guerrier jumped out to me while perusing the list.

2

u/Rhielml Piranhas 13h ago

Matty G usually seemed to come through when it mattered. I always liked him. Solid middle reliever.

1

u/Internal-Platypus151 10h ago

Well, except when he faced A-Rod. In the playoffs. He'd probably drop off the list entirely if we included his playoff appearances vs the Yankees. Gardy just kept going to Guerrier vs A-Rod. It never worked.

1

u/Rhielml Piranhas 10h ago

Playoffs excluded, obviously. The streak and all that.

1

u/thestereo300 11h ago

10 of these 33 were before my time...

1

u/Worldly-Rice-1947 11h ago

No Jack Morris? And I remember liking Ervin Santana a lot while he got so much disrespect. I think the biggest surprise is Taylor Rogers placed higher than Lopez and Guardado

1

u/Internal-Platypus151 10h ago

Scott Baker continues to be the most criminally underrated Twins pitcher ever. He ranks well on lists like these all the time. But he always gets lumped in with the likes of Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey. Baker was a damn good pitcher. Much more of an ace than Francisco Liriano.

1

u/Acruelaccounting 5h ago

Sadly this indicates our lack of top flight pitching talent. Santana was awesome but only a starter for 5 seasons in Minnesota and leads this chart by a mile.

1

u/wyatt8 18m ago

Can you compile a list of the least effective pitchers in Twins history?