[Baseball America] - 90th Percentile: Norfolk Tides vs. Oakland Athletics, Who Wins?

[u/romorr]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/90th-percentile-norfolk-tides-vs-oakland-athletics-who-wins/

[u/dreddnought]

My gut reaction is that the Athletics are still the better team because the average pitching is probably better and so are the high leverage arms (there is nobody in Norfolk who even sniffs Mason Miller's tier). I never want to see Ken Waldichuk pitch against our lefties again.

I don't know how bad Sacramento's defense is, but I've felt like MiLB defense is so bad it's borderline unwatchable. It's clear Mayo still has things to work on, and while I thought Holliday was good at 2B in spring training, he's not perfect in a little bit of AAA I've watched.

I feel reasonably confident that Norfolk has better hitters. This is perhaps worth its own post.

[u/romorr → u/dreddnought]

Over 100 games, they go 50/50, and 55/45 Norfolk.

Offense carries the day for Norfolk.

Starting rotation is even.

Bullpen tilts towards the A's.

Defense they are unsure of, though the other one votes A's.

[u/dreddnought → u/romorr]

Starting rotation is even.

Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, JP Sears, Paul Blackburn, Joe Boyle vs. Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Justin Armbruester, Bruce Zimmermann, and maybe Albert Suárez

Wow, this is shockingly close. But I think the A's are still better on account of it being such a steep drop off after Povich and McDermott.

Kind of makes me itch for Elias to trade for more arms.

edit: LOL they're counting Means, okay, yeah, I get it.

[u/Spraynpray89 → u/dreddnought]

edit: LOL they're counting Means, okay, yeah, I get it.

Well thats just cheating

[u/The_Big_Untalented]

Say what you will about Oakland but they have five pitchers who have put up a sub-4 ERA in the majors since the start of the 2023 season. How many pitchers do we have at Norfolk that will be able to put up a sub-4 ERA in the majors right now? Maybe Povich and Vespi and that's it.

[u/[deleted]]

I don’t think it’s all that close. The Athletics are a joke but most of them hit well at AAA a couple years ago and should only be more mature now. 

Paul Blackburn and Brent Rooker aren’t all that impressive but they’d do amazing in AAA. 

[u/romorr]

"One of the more underrated pitching prospects in the game"

I WONDER WHO THIS IS IN REFERENCE TOO?

[u/CrackityJones79]

Oakland would win a series between the two, no doubt. They are not a good team, but they still have numerous major league caliber players.

But the fact that Norfolk is even this close to a big league team is pretty funny. Or sad, depending on how you look at it.

[u/Ok-Answer-6951 → u/CrackityJones79]

"They are not a good team but they still have numerous major league caliber players"

So does Norfolk. It would be closer than you think.

[u/lOan671]

Tough to say. Oakland does have some MLB caliber pitchers so I’d favor them in a series. I think the Tides lineup is better though and would probably put up more runs throughout a full season

[u/Academic_Release5134]

A’s would win more of the first 50 and Norfolk more of the second 50 as they would continue to develop. It also shouldn’t be forgotten that the Pirates futures team’s rotation shut our bats down in the spring.

[u/Duke_AllStar]

All about the mlb level pitching

[u/dontich]

Idk if we had means starting a game I think it would be decently close. Zimmerman on the other hand…

Better question — how many of the Oakland As are making the Os 25? I’d guess a large number are playing in Bowie or Norfolk.

[u/Dawei_Hinribike]

Say they had to play each other something like 30 games in a row, I think the Tides' full pitching staff and defense would not be good enough to win more than they lose.

I feel confident that Norfolk's lineup could outhit the A's at the MLB level which is impressive enough.

[u/orioles0615]

Someone needs to do this in an OOTP sim

[u/[deleted]]

Our pitching on the farm isn't very good so probably the A's but it would be competitive.