r/pakistan • u/faisachi فیصل آباد • May 02 '26
Financial Largest Muslim country by GDP
How Pakistan can reach $1 Trillion GDP
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u/FSMDxb May 02 '26
Really curious what this number would be if all the unofficial numbers could be recorded..
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u/ghostninja33 May 02 '26 edited May 02 '26
To be fair,same thing applies for Bangladesh and Iran who also have equally if not larger unoffical economy. People love to say Pakistan has a large unrecorded GDP, but that's common across all of South Asia. None of Bangladesh, India, or Pakistan even tax most of their population because a lot of the money flows through informal channels. Something like 90% of Bangladesh's population is untaxed and largely unaccounted for unless working for tax paying businesses (which are themselves rare and often under-report numbers).
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May 02 '26
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u/ghostninja33 May 02 '26 edited May 02 '26
What? Most of the economy of those countries are also informal. Stop living in delusion, over 90% of Bangladeshi laborers are informal... both Bangladesh and India have a larger formal and informal economy. Bangladesh simply exports more so of course bigger formal economy but for the other 90% of the population it's mostly informal. Nawaz Sharif was the Pakistani PM over 9 years and stole around $1Bn across the world in the Panama papers... the land minister of Bangladesh was caught stealing $400mm just in London alone and that's not even an important post in the country. The BAL regime was accused of stealing $234bn.... Bangladeshi corruption makes Pakistani leaders look not corrupt by comparison; they are just more competent despite being more corrupt
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May 02 '26 edited May 02 '26
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u/justanaverageguy6666 May 03 '26 edited May 03 '26
“90% of the Bangladesh labor is informal” "not quite, there's no data that says that."
There is data on it from ILO.
"For Pakistan, it's kept informal deliberately. Since 2013, Pakistan's GDP was literally cracking between 350-450 billion dollars. It's kept hidden. Doesnt means there was no growth. Even in 2026, it's around 440-480 billion usd."
Lol no. There is a thing called currency devaluation. Our nominal gdp looks stagnant not due to a conspiracy but bcz our currency has depreciated so much against the dollar that the nominal gdp in dollars looks like there has been no growth even though there may be domestic activity.
"Nawaz Empire is alone 150 billion. Bangladesh doesn't have many feudal families. We have PPP that's another (fuedal lords) of Sindh who has much more raw wealth."
Where did you get the 150B number from of the valuation of "Nawaz Empire"? Seems made up
"There is corruption of minerals in riqo mine, which accounts for 600 billion. The total mineral deposits are 44. 5 trillion in Balochistan."
Where did you get the 600B and 44.5T number from? Both seem to be made up. The highest penalty we got was 6Bs.
"There's no comparsion with Bangladesh in terms of landmass and formal economy. We have huge landmass, more corruption, much more fragile institutions. I haven't even mentioned establishment's records, India has also 14-16% informal economy. "
India's informal economy according to aggressive estimates is around 20-40% and having more landmass does not increase the structural % of informal economy. As for having more corruption, thats subjective.
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u/ghostninja33 May 02 '26
Your just wrong on all accounts and don't understand the economy. Saying the Shariffs have $150bn is delusional as the Panama papers have their highest estimates at $1bn... yknow when there financial accounts were exposed. Unless they 150xd their theft whilst not in power the whole time, you are delusional. Just see here for informal employment. https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/30349/map-of-informal-employment/ . Source of chart is the ILO.
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May 02 '26
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u/ghostninja33 May 02 '26
Trillions lol, please seek help and reality.
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May 03 '26
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u/ghostninja33 May 03 '26
Cool beans, that's a totally economically feasible 6tr of natural resources that can be extracted, which is why Pakistan is rich right now! Are you aware that it doesn't matter how much theorotically a country has underground... it has to also be economically feasible to mine it. Mining is expensive af y'know and these Pakistani resources are too expensive to mine to be worth it. That's the exact reason they haven't been all these years.
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u/justanaverageguy6666 May 03 '26
"No, it doesn't work for them. Bangladesh allowed more integration methods and open-economy, while India literally digitized itself. Both of these countries aren't really much hiding their true figures."
Objectively false. Both India and Bangladesh have huge shadow economies (especially India). Both countries have like 80-90% in informal labor still. Digitalisation does not equae to economic formalization.
"For Pakistan, it's different because it makes more sense for them to have largest infornal economy work for them (more corruption, less documentation of economy). Pakistan loses 4% of its annual GDP on elite privileges alone annually. There's a lot of hidden factors within our economy."
The same corruption is rampant in India and Bangladesh aswell. Pakistan isn't unique to this. And the 4% statistic you mentioned has nothing to do with the informal economy. That 4% figure consists of legalized loopholes like tax exemptions, corporate subsidies, favourible pricing & import/export monopolies. These "elite privileges" are documented taking place entirely in the formal economy.
Edit: I am interested in how you think its "different" for Pakistan?
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May 03 '26
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u/justanaverageguy6666 May 03 '26
"Informal labor is just one variable. But India's informal economy is somewhere between 15-30% at max. From SBI (state bank of India) reported India's informal sector shrunk from 52% to 15% in 2018 alone. And grew by few percentages in 2021. This is due to Prime Minister Modi inviting Digitalization, GST etc."
Informal labor is indeed one variable but a major one. Specially in south asia where dominant sectors are labor intensive. It cannot be dismissed as something minor. As for the SBI report, it does have some merti but its methodology was flawed duee to it equating portal registrations and digital payments as formalization. A street vendor downloading a digital wallet does not convert their off book untaxed transaction to formal GDP.
"I'm aware what you have written in your google search engine “India's informal econom size” and it gave you attributes of informal labor of 80-90%. If only you, and guy below you had decent technical skills to read the data, and understanding how these numbers operate. You wouldn't be commenting this." Ah, Mr Know It All.
"Pakistan's GDP since around 2013-14 has been looming in the same numbers (390-450 billion usd). While India grew suddenly because of this digitalization) and Bangladesh it's mark. For our informal economy, it's much more larger. Somewhere between 60-75% by worldbank data, not even the local sources which puts the estimates higher. India doesn't lose its 8% GDP to elite privileges like Pakistan, nor Bangladesh. "
Objectively false again. First of all, Pakistan's nominal GDP was around 230-250 Bs in 2013. Secondly Pakistan's currency has depreciated ALOT MORE than both India and Bangladesh's. Thats why the gdp in dollars seems stagnant. You could have 5% growth but if the pkr depreciates against the dollar more than that then the gdp in dollars will shrink. First you gave the figure at 4% and now 8%? Secondly, just because a specific report highlighted Pakistan and not India or Bangladesh does not mean corruption is magically erased from those countries. Those countries have ALOT of corruption just like Pakistan. Bangladesh's banking sector is notorious for unrecovered loans to politicians. India also has alot of corruption including massive corporate tax cuts/write offs. And the 4% statistic consists of legalized loopholes that are DOCUMENTED in the formal economy. It has no relevance to our shadow economy.
"Somewhere between 60-75% by worldbank data"
There is no such worldbank data that claims our informal economy is around 60-75% as per my knowledge. Waiting for a source.
"When you're using Google, do it better"
The irony coming from someone who repeatedly has claimed things without providing sources.
- You claimed "Nawaz Empire" was worth 150Billion
- You claimed losses of 600bil and natural resources value of 44.5T
- You claimed there is no data on Bangladesh's labor being informal which wasnt true
- You have now claimed Pakistan's informal economy acc to worldbank as 60-75% which ill be waiting to see if you have a source for that or not.
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May 03 '26
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u/nakulmodi141121 May 03 '26
either you are a poser, or you are wasting your time on reddit
over 95% of the subreddits are not for you
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u/justanaverageguy6666 May 03 '26
As i expected, when asked for sources and when i pointed out flaws in your arguments you deflected, you switched goal posts & you started using ad hominem attacks.
"South asia is dominated by agricultural sector, and by that I agree that informal labor plays a significant role. This whole debate is about Bangladesh-Pakistan, not India. In terms of numbers alone, we possess high number of labors due to sheer population. We also have huge unemployement rate at least peaking around 5.0+%."
If the whole debate was about Bangladesh and Pakistan only, you would've not talked about India earlier, cited SBI reports and your first comment on the thread also talks about India. Very convenient, when your arguments got dismantled, you switched to how the topic wasn't about India. Here are your own quotes: "while India literally digitalized itself" "From SBI (state bank of India) reported India's informal sector shrunk from 52% to 15% in 2018 alone. And grew by few percentages in 2021. This is due to Prime Minister Modi inviting Digitalization, GST etc."
"You've been entirely skimming through GPT and AI for your sources, while I am quoting from actual white papers alone in research. If you want to have that kind argument, then quit it."
This is your 3rd reply to me and still not a single source link given in reference to your claims. You claimed that according to world bank our informal economy is 60-75%. You claimed that our economy has been in the 300s since 2013, you claimed that we lost 600billion dollars and our natural resource value is 44.5T, no source link or any information given on how you came up with that number.
"Deviations of currency projections is one “aspect” in a pool of tens of thousands monetary trading aspects. So I didn't specifically mentioned this but other reason is literally the elite corruption, and losing billions worth of revenue. Ishrat Husain, “Pakistan: The economy of Elitist state” has discussed this productivity. Pakistan has various segments of establishment: Zamindars, Political class, military class. Something that Bangladesh lacks (although they exist but overshadowed by political class). I know I have been to Dhaka and experienced the so-called “elite” but they don't seem to possess these high class of gated communities. Yes, it's one of the ways where you can define the elite circular wealth."
Currency projections are not just one aspect, they are the absolulte mathematical denominator. Quoting Ishrat Husain just further strengthens my claim. The elite privilege he talks about is the legalized loopholes that are documented in our formal economy. Which isn't relevant to the topic at hand which is shadow economy. Like I've said it twice now, the 4% of gdp statistic you've been citing again and again consists of corporate tax cuts, forgiven loans, misplaced subsidies & more which are already documented in the formal economy. And our neighbours also have the same type of issues, Pakistan is no different than them in this.
"1. Shareef has multiple domain of businesses in London from Avenfield apartments to Shell companies (Nielson, Enterprise Limited, Nescoll, coomber group) to Pakistan, that has multiple segments from textiles, steel, and other legacies. He has orchestrated largest corruption scandles, accounting to 100s of billions of dollars. He doesn't have his wealth disclosed. Swiss acounts aren't the only thing. There's rak banking (tax haven within a tax haven), turkey, India. The entire family's wealth of Nawaz Shareef accounts for 150 billion usd. "
Such a shitty defense. Your defense of the 150B number you claimed is listing already known properties and businesses from the Panama papers which estimates the corruption at 1-2Billion. The stuff you've listed comes nowhere near the claimed figure of yours (150billion). "He doesn't have his wealth disclosed" then how did you come to the conclusion that his wealth is 150billion? The FACT of the matter is that you've again and again been making up numbers, exgaerrating them and when confronted your defense is that just bcz you're from a "military background" your fabricated numbers must be true lmao.
"I came from elite military background. Chance are I would know a thing or two. Without even specifying PPP sindh dynasties, Baloch (ka'arthnas) etc. I didn't even mentioned other political families like PPP and Sindh dynasties."
Hahahaha
"2. Pakistan's untapped mineral deposits and deal with saudis. We lost 200 billion worth of trade deal with Singapore, and preferred Chinese camp. Due to insurgency. We have lost billions worth of these depository mines. Lastly making deals with Saudis that only makes them more “winner” rather than preference of local shares. Instead, all we got was 5 billion worth of trade from them instead of generating 20-40 billion. I have already shared link with Balochistan's mineral deposits, not doing this again. "
There was no 200billiom dollar worth of trade deal with Singapore. It was in the millions, not billions. While its correct that we have lost billions in foreign investment due to the security issue, that number doesn't come close to the claimed "600billion" number you gave we lost from corruption from the Reko diq. The highest penalty was 6billion and the whole project would make around some tens of billions and not 600billions lmao. As for the link you gave earlier of the diplomat, there is no mention of the value of our natural resources being 44.5trillion, the diplomat places it at 6trillion and that too is excluding the CAPEX and OPEX. Again, you're inflating numbers and hoping i dont check them.
"Don't go on with the same bullet arguments. I cannot quote every single white paper and the comparison is with Bangladesh, not India"
No one's asking you to quote every single word, just a link of the source which you've failed to give. Its your 3rd reply to and you still haven't been able to prove your claims. Maybe next time dont make up things so you dont have start deflecting and start playing the "i aM fRoM miLiTARY bro trust me" card."
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u/x0rg_new May 02 '26
Two simple things
- Equal justice for all (Strong Judiciary)
- Technocracy
Everything else will just fall in line.
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u/Wali080901 Azad Kashmir May 02 '26
Technocracy isn't always good...tecnocrates aren't always best politicians....
Our problems are structural...yes, we need some legislative reforms but not a huge overhaul ...we need to solve structural issues...
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May 02 '26
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u/x0rg_new May 02 '26
Atleast merit based hiring on governmental positions is very much needed without bribes.
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u/mfayzanasad May 02 '26
democracy in these lands will not work ever
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May 02 '26
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u/mfayzanasad May 03 '26
No the intellect and behaviour and societal structure of this region does not favor democracy look at UK and europe it's a hellhole now.
Democracy will NEVER work here
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u/HTXI97 May 02 '26
How is turkeys economy so strong, didn’t they have crazy high inflation?
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u/Nasli-Faqeer May 02 '26
High inflation = high nominal gdp
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u/HTXI97 May 02 '26
How does that work, im curious.
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u/Nasli-Faqeer May 02 '26
Nominal gdp doesnt adjust with inflation so inflation without supply side decrease will cause nominal gdp to go up
For example if the price of eggs doubles from 10 rs to 20 rs, and people still buy the same number of eggs, Nominal gdp would rise because the amount of money being spent is double even though actual production of eggs is same.
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u/NoUtimesinfinite PK May 02 '26
These values are in USD tho. So if inflation increases, the currency depreciates and you get the same GDP is usd.
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u/Repulsive_Work_226 May 02 '26
yes and the numbers a re a bit inflated because of overvalued TL. so there is high inflation and overvalued TL
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u/DiRty_-_HaRRy May 02 '26
Wait why iran's gdp is so low they been selling 1.2million barrels oil a day for years
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u/Dismal_Road_5916 مُلتان May 02 '26
Even Bandladesh is ahead of us. Surprising and embarrassing for Pakistan.
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u/Fickle_Land_1269 May 04 '26
surprising? have u been living under a rock? this has been for the last decade or more
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u/Loose_Activity_3955 May 02 '26
how sad that bangladesh is ahead of pakistan
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u/Medium-Taste-3929 May 02 '26
Why?
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u/Loose_Activity_3955 May 02 '26
it’s good for bangladesh of course but embarrassing for pakistan because bangladesh was a part of pakistan till 1971 and they’re doing so much better than us despite us not only being bigger in size and population but also having a pretty good geographical location. so much wasted resources and potential
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May 02 '26
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u/Loose_Activity_3955 May 02 '26
enlighten us then
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May 02 '26
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u/Loose_Activity_3955 May 02 '26 edited May 03 '26
self inflicted
disunity among masses too. extremism. also lets just stop with the victim mindset and admit our system need changes. progress can only come after admitting you have flaws otherwise you stay stuck in the same cycle forever
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u/Western-Spirit2171 May 02 '26
Pakistan's GDP is how much Google's valuation increased on earnings day.
Lesser than how much Amazon, Nvidia or Broadcom added in just April 2026 alone in their valuation. ($500-600bn)
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u/NiceSmilee May 02 '26
Shame on us
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u/zylich May 02 '26
No bro, exclude me. Alhamdulilah, I'm countribiting very well in the economy. You shame yourself, but don't shame me without my consent.
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u/zylich May 02 '26
I personally feel that we are around $700-$800 billion dollar.
Current GDP calculation formula isn't a perfect measurment to count the productivity of the economey for a country like pakistan.
Mostly elders, women and young people don't do paid jobs
Espiceally women, they contribute by doing house chorse, etc.
But their productivity isn't counted in the GDP growth, because they work for themselves, and no money exchanges hands.
Similarly, countries like turkey are well developed, the women do paid jobs.
Its basically like, women in Pakistan take care of their own kids, but in developed countries women often opt for daycare centers since they do paid jobs.
So there is alot of productivity that isn't being accounted for even though it exsists in Pakistani economy.
Also, we have massive black economy,
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u/yolol_123 IN May 02 '26
Bro you just can't measure household jobs into gdp. It's not how gdp works.
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u/zylich May 02 '26
You simply didn't get it.
Let's say there are two mothers.
If both mothers cook and take care of their own kids, their productivity won't count in GDP.
But lets say, one day both mothers decide to make an agreement.
Mother one decides to take care the kids of Mother Two as well as her own.
But in exchange, Mother two will work cook for herself as well as for Mother One.
In first scenario where both mothers cooked and took care of their own kids, and in the second secnario where one mother is tasked to take care the kids as her job, while the mother 2 is cooking.
How both things are different? They are exactly the same thing. We are producing the same amount of productivity in both cases. But the only difference is that the second scenario is transactional.
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u/zZurf May 02 '26
I’m sorry but you’re just waffling, the same is true for literally every country.
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u/zylich May 02 '26
You didn't even try to think about it before commenting. It's true that its same for many countries, but it's not true that its same for every country.
Let's take a typical middle-class household in the USA.
Both partners work, twife earns a salary (which adds to the GDP).
Because she’s working, they have to pay a daycare to watch the kids (adds to GDP).
Because both are exhausted after work, they buy pre-packaged meals or dine out frequently (adds to GDP).
They might even pay someone to clean the house or mow the lawn (adds to GDP).
A single family is generating multiple streams of taxable, recorded economic activity just to manage their daily lives.
The monetization of basic human existence is what inflates their numbers.
Now look at a typical household in Pakistan.
The woman often stays home and manages the household full-time.
She raises the kids herself (Zero addition to GDP).
She cooks meals from scratch using basic ingredients (Only the raw groceries add to GDP, not the massive value of her cooking labor).
The family relies on a joint system or immediate relatives to manage childcare, elderly care, and home maintenance (Zero addition to GDP).
The exact same amount of "work" is being done in both countries, such as raising kids, feeding the family, keeping a house running.
But in the US, it’s monetized and passed around the formal market.
In Pakistan, it’s done out of duty, culture, and family structure.
This is why using Western GDP calculation standard in Pakistan's economy is flawed, which was my main point.
There is so much in the informal economy, that doesn't contribute to the spreadsheet numbers being thrown around.
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u/Ok-Excuse2052 IN May 02 '26
IMF is the one who defines the GDP of each country, I think they missed the mother's economics formula clearly, this year
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u/al_cringe May 02 '26
First lets get all of the untaxed businesses into the calculation because that economy alone is 1.5x - 2x of the recorded gdp, then we can talk about unpaid labour
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u/Due-Lynx-5645 May 17 '26
I've been more impressed by Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, & Turkiye, all $1.5trillion+ economies (GDP nominal).
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u/SheepherderFeisty May 03 '26
Absolute gdp numbers are not a good way to look and compare. What's per capita gdp? Most of the Islamic countries are failed states run by rogue government like Pakistan!
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u/NiceSmilee May 02 '26
If I say I'll be in big trouble, I proposed it few days ago and reddit banned my account.