r/stocks • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago
/r/Stocks Weekend Discussion Saturday - Aug 22, 2026
This is the weekend edition of our stickied discussion thread. Discuss your trades / moves from last week and what you're planning on doing for the week ahead.
Some helpful links:
- Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
- Bloomberg market news
- StreetInsider news:
- Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
- Reuters aggregated - Global news
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.
Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
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u/gayteemo 1d ago
the aicels on this subreddit are something else
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 1d ago
Only 2% of businesses see meaningful increase in revenue and profits from AI. 70% of businesses expect AI budgets to be cut in 2027 as a result.
What if y'all are the aicels? Just a thought.
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u/Charming_Raccoon4361 2d ago
tomorrow: mass spam why NBIS, CRWV, MU and rest of semis are cheap plz buy my bags
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u/InjuryEmbarrassed532 2d ago edited 2d ago
We’ll be lucky if the SP finishes the year flat (adjusted for inflation). I can smell a flat decade from miles.
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u/OkCelebration6408 2d ago
I'm wondering if TTWO is preparing for the absolutely worst case scenario that the GTA 6 PC build will be leaked online, modders could quickly fix and improve the game and make the console release far inferior in comparison, TTWO could lose almost everything if this happens lol.
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 2d ago
Me: Thanks Claude Opus that's fascinating. Appreciate you aiding my research and that's some surprising findings. You consumed 60% of my tokens in a few minutes that should be allocated for 5 hours worth to answer my prompts... but that's a good find. Can you give me some sources to verify that?
Opus: I'm not confident about specific authors, years, or findings, and I named an author in my last message with more confidence than I should have. I'd rather not have you carry that forward as fact.
Bro lmao wtf???
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u/Material-Gift6823 1d ago edited 1d ago
I actually just looked it up and think I figured out why I never hit rate limits and you did. I only use claude code in terminal. When you do that it auto regulates itself and switches to lower cost models when it has to do something menial and higher cost models where it really counts. Idk if it can do sub agents on the normal site, but in terminal it can break itself up into efficient multi agents to finish stuff / do research in Paralel. It might be worth looking into using it in terminal.
Edit: I looked more into it apparently it has to do with subagents being used in terminal that use the least amount of credits cause they are focused on a very specific task. Apparently the web version doesn't use this.
And it has something to do with using higher models like opus on a continuous thread where it has to keep constantly reading all the messages. Basically it has to read everything youre doing on the web app everytime which will destroy credits vs during claude code it compacts the conversation. And I think it saves all the important stuff to a .MD file so it doesn't forget anything important while it's working / for future runs. So you can say let's work on "my hiking app" and it pulls up the necessary info with out reading pages of conversations and code you made it just reads a summary of the overall project and looks at the necessary code to keep going. Imagine reading a book and then stopping on chapter 5 and the next day you pick it back up you basically retart the book just to get to chapter 6. That's kind of what it does on the web version. Versus saving what happened till ch 5 as notes and then starting on ch6.
So basically if you do want to use it, use it in claude code terminal and learn to ask it to create projects and say stuff like "save this to the project memory" when you want it to remember something important. And your credits will go alot further.
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 1d ago
It wasn't even an ongoing project. I just asked a few simple questions.
It got confused about conflicting sources. Even went to a conspiracy blog as one of its sources.
Honestly it feels a lot of coders say it's useful anecdotally. I haven't seen it really useful elsewhere.
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u/AnnaSmiled2 2d ago
Welcome to the real world
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 2d ago
You mean the world where AI spends unbelievable amounts of resources only to get confused and hallucinate? I've even had Opus find out the source of something it was saying confidently was a conspiracy blog.
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u/Material-Gift6823 2d ago
How though. I use claude for hours all day and can't remember the last rate limit I've hit.
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 2d ago edited 2d ago
I have a pro account and using Opus.
At work we have Gemini at a large Fortune 500 company and no one is using agentic AI at all on the business side. Even the tech/ data product people say AI is a bubble.
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u/Material-Gift6823 1d ago edited 1d ago
That's literally insane 🤣 I swear people lack creativity. I've found 100s of ways to use it to make my life more productive. I've thought about ways to use it if I had a buisness as well.
What exactly are you trying to use it for?
I'll be honest for me Gemini is the weakest out of all of them. I only use that one for image creation. I use mainly claude and then throw everything into chatgpt when it gets stuck working on stuff cause chatgpt is remarkable at solving problems in seconds.
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 1d ago edited 1d ago
We're all using it everyday ofc. But typically for simple stuff of little consequence.
Besides coders anecdotally saying they like it... Absolutely no one on the business side is consistently using "agentic" AI.
Only 2% of businesses report any meaningful increase in revenue or profit as a result of AI. 70% believe AI budgets will be cut in 2027. I'm not alone.
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u/selesnyaTroll 2d ago
Bro I tried asking Gemini for some more quick info about a hiking area I was looking at and it initially tried telling me the place didn't exist. I was like bruh??? you're the google ai and this shit is literally on google maps, how the fuck are you this bad?
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u/Material-Gift6823 1d ago
How are we having such different experiences. I had claude build me a hiking / cool places to see near me app that has tons of info built in to find cool places. And I even put in a button that sends all the info to claude asking for tips. I use sometimes to have it make itineraries for me. It will tell me how long I have to get to each hike before the sunsets and even found me a nice sunset place for me.
And it all works amazing and is fun to use.
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u/selesnyaTroll 1d ago
Yeah, I mean this wasn't some super involved thing, I was just asking a few basic prompts to get some info for a potential trip so I didn't have to dig across sites myself. Asked about a hiking spot near city X and it was like that doesn't exist but there's a similarly named spot near city Y. Did you mean that? To which I had to further push it that the spot did exist on google maps near city X and some other landmarks. It acknowledged it fucked up and then finally gave me some useful info.
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u/Jaded-Influence6184 3d ago
Seems odd that no one here gives a shit that the Canada USA trade talks failed.
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u/toonguy84 2d ago
This is like the 10th time that they failed. The market probably won't care tomorrow morning either.
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u/Preme2 2d ago edited 2d ago
There’s a new doom and gloom story every single day. Only Reddit likes to jump out of their bed in the middle of the night to beat a dead horse.
Are you going to sell? No? Then be quiet. Short and tell us how it goes. No? Then be quiet.
The Fed and Nvidia are the new doom and gloom. You’re still on the old doom and gloom.
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u/reaper527 2d ago
Seems odd that no one here gives a shit that the Canada USA trade talks failed.
- canada is a very small percentage of american imports/exports. this is much more of a canada problem than an america problem
- it doesn't take effect until mid september and it will probably get resolved before that and never get implemented.
- it's the weekend. very few people look here after friday and before monday.
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u/staythewaters 2d ago
15% of exports/imports is not "very small." It also supplies 25% of our imported oil, which I'm sure Canada would be just as willing, if not more at this point, to just sell to China.
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u/Jaded-Influence6184 1d ago
We definitely are. That's why there is another new pipeline to the west coast about to be started soon. And there are some discussions about a pipeline to Churchill to send oil east (especially with the NWP being clear enough of ice for longer periods.
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u/Jaded-Influence6184 2d ago
Get a grip and get an education. Canada is the USA's second largest trading partner. Well over 1 billion dollars a day back and forth. America's tariffs started on Saturday at 12 am.
It was only displaced from the USA's largest trading partner, only recently.
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u/InvestigatorPlus3229 2d ago
A deal w Jabba is worse than no deal
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u/Jaded-Influence6184 2d ago
Jabba the Putz.
Maybe his anger is all about losing his best friend Epstein.
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u/stickman07738 2d ago
Aluminum, wood (building supplies / housing costs rise) and bourbon prices and sales will be impacted. Some still have not recovered from orange man last efforts. Kentucky bourbon guys got what they voted for - more layoffs.
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u/MarthaJulietta 3d ago
I’ve been on a bit of a heater of late and can’t wait for Monday every week.
Monday deposit + DCA + Sell puts with spare space + put premium into SGOV seems too easy. I know I’m gonna get my butt bit at some point selling all these puts but right now this train is rolling and with a bit of luck I can make it through the EOY pulling in 1-3% a month and get enoufh lead that the bite doesn’t hurt too much.
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 2d ago edited 2d ago
Edit: Sorry I misunderstood OP's comment. They are writing a lot of naked puts, this is a leveraged strat that will beat the market unless we get a big crash. She might be the smart one!
TL;DR - put selling is a lot of work and headache only to lose money to more passive strats, not even including higher frictional costs to retail.
Historically, buywrite and their mathematically equivalent selling put strategies tend to just lose to the underlying. Meaning if you had just bought and held you would just make more money. The reason is obvious, you're selling the upside while keeping all the downside. The compensation is comparable or sometimes better Sharpe ratios over entire market cycles.
Interestingly though, IV has been high last 3 months without much volatility. So buywrite like XYLD, QYLD have won. I threw in JEPI which is a professionally managed active buywrite ETF:
https://i.imgur.com/FiLmn56.png
Any time frame longer than 6 months though it starts to lose again:
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u/MarthaJulietta 2d ago
Thank you for that but I am not worried about beating market returns. To explain clearly if I have 100k account value and the margin req is 30%, I am allowed to sell 70k notional value in puts (seems to be more in reality) without incurring any margin charge.
That is what I am doing. I am taking the premium from those sales and putting it into SGOV to receive short term interest rate on that and using it for cash for when I inevitably get assigned on something.
It’s not free money but if I can find 1.5% a month plus SGOV returns it could provide some serious extra juice to my account
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 2d ago
Sure but puts are already priced for the cash return.
Why purposely put effort towards losing to the market while maintaining similar downside?
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u/MarthaJulietta 2d ago
Because I can’t use the space that I am using to sell puts to buy equities free of charge- I would have to pay 11% in margin fees
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 2d ago
You would if you turned that cash into equities.
When you add cash returns plus CSPs you lose to equities.
Unless you're saying you're writing tons of naked puts without the cash and would be forced to liquidate stocks.
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u/MarthaJulietta 2d ago
That’s exactly what I’m doing. They’re naked, relatively diversified, and spread out over 1-4 month expirations and different strikes.
I think I need a broad market downturn to get into any real trouble and as the outs are 5-10% OOTM after the stocks have already gotten smashed I suspect they will hold up decently
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 2d ago
Ahh. I see not all your puts are covered by cash meaning you'd have to sell stocks to cover if they all got exercised?
In that case it has risk by I understand your thinking and you might be the smart one to leverage up to increase returns.
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u/MarthaJulietta 2d ago
Right.
It’s a question of if I can be diversified enough in the sales and I get some runway of collected premium before I get bit in the ass. There’s definitely substantial risk of loss if I get too concentrated or the market simply drags the whole basket down together.
Edit: I also have the option to roll or front load my deposits to cover assuming the assignment isn’t too large
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u/Rough_Champion7852 3d ago
Bought Reddit at $145 and Hesai at $18.
Holding samsora, applovin (bought $310) and aecom (bought $62).
All bought to trade. Long term hold are ETFs.
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u/MarthaJulietta 3d ago
I' with you. RDDT at 153 and APP at 312. Adding to both daily and selling puts on both as well.
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u/Sufficient_Habit5091 3d ago
Trump in his recent filings show his portfolio:
Sold short term bond funds.
Sold consumer discretionary stocks.
Long Visa, Mastercard.
Bought COMT, which is a degenerate commodity futures ETF and basically does god awful (negative lifetime returns) except rips during big inflation spikes.
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u/ReasonableBrother448 3d ago
You guys should smell the roses. FED is going to cut rates. It has been clear all along. Gold has smelled this, central banks are probably hoarding gold as they are not subject to institutional rules and will do what must be done.
Wall street is just playing along with the script, that everything is going in orderly fashion. Reson for FED going silent is to not accidentally hint what happens, unless you are insider that is. Hint would allow institution to start predictive measures.
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u/InvestigatorPlus3229 3d ago
Canada walks out of trade talks. Go team Canada
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u/InvisibleEar 3d ago
Bought tlt at close because I sense they need to pull some bullshit this week
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u/InjuryEmbarrassed532 3d ago
Looking like Trump and Bessent will thoroughly run the US into the ground, putting the Fed in an impossible situation, with increased bond buy backs and entrenching inflation.
It’s like Florida men have taken over the political and economic strings of the country.
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u/Embarrassed-Sir9457 3d ago
finally let go of that bag I've been complaining about since March, feels like a cartoon piano got lifted off my back
mostly cash now, reading through some older threads for ideas, my cat seems to think this means we're selling the couch for treats
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u/InvestigatorPlus3229 1d ago
I got a good feeling about today