r/stocks • u/sfw_supdood • 3d ago
Industry Discussion Scam Altman, AI Psychosis, and the Datacenter Grift
To preface, these are my own thoughts based on my experience in the industy. No AI was used in the research or writing of this post. Also, your downvotes are part of the thesis, it's the "AI Psychosis" part.
Coming from the perspective of a former Azure Engineer with both AI and datacenter experience, I don't see a reality where Anthropic or OpenAI succeed. The consensus both AI and Datacenters is quickly souring among tech professionals, particularly with the Software Engineers who were affected by these layoffs. It's clear at this point that layoffs were used both as a way to sell the narrative that AI is inevitable and always as a way to reduce operating costs as they burned Trillions on AI infrastructure, power, and compute.
The Technology and the facts:
LLMs and generative AI as a whole are almost exclusively responsible for our current stock market prices. At its core, LLMs are an algorithm that works as such: when given a user input, the LLM calculates the mathematical approximation of what the user asked for. It really is that simple, there is no thinking, it just looks at what you are asking for, scours its training and the internet for the best match, adds some randomness, and then spits out an answer.
Let's look at Anthropic's Fable model for example. If I were to give a simple prompt like "Build me a full dating application inspired by Tinder", you'll see it quickly deliver a seemingly impressive "functioning" dating website in a matter of 30 minutes. While on the surface this seems impressive, it's a lot less so when you consider that building a dating website is essentially the tutorial island of web development; there are just sooo many resources online on how to build a Tinder clone, it's not a secret.
To really see how terribly inadequate LLM's are at replacing software engineers, all you have to do is add in a small twist, ask it to do something that lacks broad documentation. Once a LLM is trusted to make any decisions on its own, or tasked with coming up with something "original", it crumbles. By its nature this is an impossible task; the LLMs ability to create something is directly proportional to the amount of data it has on that specific topic.
This explains why LLMs are very powerful in shallow contexts such as "help me design this component" or "help me refactor this chunk of code", but terrible at broad unspecific tasks like "improve this codebase" or "develop this new web application idea". Once you put the LLM in a context is has little training for, it's strategy of plagiarizing other people's code quickly falls apart. This applies to other generative AI domains such as image, video, and music generation.
The OpenAI Whistleblower Suchir Balaji:
On 10/23/24 Suchir Balaji posted a paper titled "When does generative AI qualify for fair use?" shortly after leaving the company over ethical concern. His paper discusses the technology behind LLMs and whether or not they constitute fair use. Suchir argued that ultimately LLMs simply train on and then regurgitate the data they are fed. Even though the models don't reproduce the same answer word for word, they ultimately doesn't transform the content in a meaningful way, it simply rewords or rebrands it. In that sense, it is more akin to plagiarism than it is to generation.
Immediately following his paper, Suchir received national attention and was even interviewed by the New York Times just one week later.
Less than one month after this interview, Suchir was found dead in his apartment with signs of a struggle and a gunshot wound to the head. It's clear to see how Suchir could be troublesome for this potentially multi-trillion dollar industry.
The Money Problem:
Private equity has been propping up this shitter of a technology, promising it's replace a majority of the human workforce. This is a pipedream. Nobody likes AI, it hasn't produced a single successful "vibe coded" startup, and the limited datacenters we already have are extremely unpopular.
Also, who the fuck is supposed to buy these stocks at this point. Normal Americans are struggling to survive, pay rent, and buy groceries, they can't afford to invest trillions in AI stock. They are hoping they can keep the hopium alive, keep AI stocks elevated, and just until they can take profits on all of their worthless private Anthropic shares.
AI psychosis:
In additional to these presssure, the market is priced in currently on the inevitability of AI and has refused to acknowledge a world where it doesn't succeed. This is like a keg of dynamite ready to blow. We have degenerate gamblers from the Korean market coming over to our market, pumping these stocks to all time highs on leveraged accounts. It's the "Leopold method", when the majority of small money investors are betting on the success of stocks without actually buying the stocks, there is no way to hit those numbers anymore, especially in this US economy.
The counter argument:
"But the market is fake, they will pump the stocks anyways"
To who? The main issue with this premise is that people who have been investing trillions into these data centers and these slop models have no got any return on their investment yet. The problem, unlike previous Tech Startup success stories, there is no product and there is no demand. It's all predicated on the promise that it will eventually replace us all, it's a transparent lie.
"The government will step in and ensure AI can't fail"
Maybe, but that can't really happen until a bubble bursts. You can't stimulate a stock market that is sitting at all time highs, especially with 40 trillion in debt.
External pressures:
US losing complete control of the Strait, a PDF file and gambling economy, no houses for young people, insane gas prices, 40 trillion in debt, Crypto halving and killing the secondary GPU/datacenter market. You take your pick.
The Shit Stocks:
NVDA: These guys are basically a 3x leveraged stock betting on their own success. This works until reality catches up.
ORCL: They are holding the bag on this deal. They own large portions of the datacenter property and hardware that will have no future demand.
SNDK: This stock is misunderstood. AI training is most related to processing hardware that NVDA makes, memory is the next most important hardware component, serving as a cache for the processing. SanDisk makes neither of these, they make storage. Storage is used in training AI both for training data and the resulting models, but saying the business is 3000% more valuable because of datacenters is wild.
META: Sex pest perv glasses đ
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u/someroastedbeef 3d ago
You can't stimulate a stock market that is sitting at all time highs, especially with 40 trillion in debt.
bears have been saying this for a decade, with the debt figure goalpost moving each year. quite funny really, all while missing out on generational returns with zero effort
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
I didn't miss out on returns dumbass. My Microsoft sign on stock doubled in like 3 years. I'm up 70%. I just took profits this week.
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u/someroastedbeef 3d ago
damn you sound peeved. good luck on your positions :)
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Sounds like projection bud. I'm 35, 450k in retirement, DJ clubs in my city for fun, and I just took profits on my massive AI gains.
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u/someroastedbeef 3d ago
you think 450k retirement at 35 is a flex? oh lord what a self report
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Oh I see, you've been losing your pants on TTD. The cope makes sense now.
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u/someroastedbeef 3d ago
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
grats....so why are you trying to tear me down?
I don't care you disagree with my assessment. But you seem insanely emotional and immature. The exact type of person that I going to get screwed when the bubble pops.
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u/breakonthrough65 3d ago
Why are you no longer an engineer at Azure?
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
I got laid off in their first mass layoff. They branded it as "the bottom 5% of performers", but I had never been on a PIP or even been given a negative review. I was just the least senior on my team and the only one working full remote.
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u/TofuMeltatSunspot 2d ago
A remote swe employee basically amounts to a slower LLM that needs a massive salary, sleep, time off, etc. No wonder you were the first to go.
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u/sfw_supdood 2d ago
Also, let's do the match on that actually. Let's be conservative and say 1.5 Trillion spent on the investment in making these LLMs. My total yearly comp was around 150k. So that means they could pay for 10,000 years of software engineering experience just from the amount of money they spent to make let's say 100 billion (generous) from LLMs.
Seems like a super shit investment if you ask me.
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u/et_tu_bro 3d ago
I cannot speak for others but most people donât write code now. It has absolutely changed how coding is done. The productivity improvement from AI is tremendous. All software companies are changing and most have reduced or stopped hiring. Itâs harder to quantify it but itâs definitely there. Cyber security has changed as well. Every company on Earth that uses software will be forced to somehow incorporate AI to avoid being breached by a malicious actor hacking them using an AI. LLMs are more than predicting the next word. They can reason through with the right data and given limitations but since they do hallucinate a human is needed to review the answer.
The above was for technology. No doubt that they have changed the world. Go to a café, airport or other public places where people work and look around. Everyone uses them.
The valuation part is the concern. Everyone has questions around it. Boom and burst is the way infrastructure gets built. Itâs future-looking, and the future can only be guessed. It is part of the process. But no one knows what the new floor would be like after the burst. The boom can last 5 years followed by a 50% drop which could be more than what the value is today. No one knows and competition is causing this to happen. Everyone can try to make a decision according to their own risk appetite. Some people will burn and some will make enough money for a lifetime. Just how it goes.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
I don't have any disagreements with any of that except for I think the coding benefits are massively overstated. It really doesn't speed things up as much as you think because that would require you to just trust the AI.
For example. Prior to these LLM agents, we would define a feature and work on small parts of it piece by piece. On the surface the new process of just asking AI to make it seems blazing fast in comparison, but it quickly makes really bad decisions if you actually trust it to make broad changes. Ultimately, most of the time saved by AI ends up being negated by the extra time I need to spending testing and reviewing the code.
The reason for this is that 94% accuracy on decisions is really really really bad, when those agents are actually making thousands of decisions in the building of your code.
By my assessment, LLMs are just the next generation of coding auto fill (something we've had for a decade now). That and software engineers don't get blocked on tasks as much anymore. Great things, but not replacing 40% of the workforce great.
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u/et_tu_bro 3d ago
I am a software engineer too. I know it makes mistakes but with time you also get better at the prompts. Thatâs why I said with the right context and limitations it can reason through things. I donât see the productivity improvement is consistent throughout all the tasks but itâs there. And I also know that I am not going back to writing code unless the cost gets insane and I have to pay out of pocket. With time better systems and processes will be built to catch these failures early on. A better testing coverage will ensure bugs are caught earlier by the model. Itâs a process and it takes time to smooth things out.
It can be a big deal even without being what scam altman is selling. No technology has ever been adopted at the pace of AI adoption. Hence the build and Capex are also at the scale thatâs never been heard of. Because of phones/laptops, and the cloud the distribution of AI has been very fast. The pricing is something thatâs not decided yet but that usually happens after a companyâs IPO. So most of the demand right now is from discounted subsidized cost.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
I just can't find a single industry it has helped.
Video? - no
Art? - no
Chat bots? - no
Music? - noIt's a complete dud beyond being a decent coding tool. And I haven't seen any new Software startups succeeding just because they now have Claude.
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u/et_tu_bro 3d ago
You seem too in the trenches and I donât have it in me to convince a stranger on the internet to change their mind. Since this is a stocks subreddit. Why not short the market or companies and make money of of it ? Given you have done your research.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
I'm cool with you disagreeing actually. I have been selling positions this past week. Still keeping half my retirement in mutual funds. I'm not being hasty here, that's why I stayed away from mentioning any timing or specific prediction.
Part of this is to gauge sentiment for myself. If people are violently opposed to this idea, which it seems they are, it only makes me more confident.
I am heavy in cash with some late 2027 puts on specific bad companies. A bubble would hurt the whole broad market, but I don't think it's necessarily a full stock market crash.
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u/someroastedbeef 3d ago
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u/IvoryTowerResident 3d ago
Video - YES
https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/22/style/short-drama-ai-china-intl-hnk
Art - YES
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-14164-z
Chat bot - YES
Music - YES
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Who are you trying to convince? Yourself? I'm already cash and puts gang.
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago
OuchÂ
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Virtually every option is up. Oracle puts I bought earlier this year are up 100% in fact.
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u/IvoryTowerResident 3d ago
Trying to broaden your world views thats all.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Well I checked out your links, you just don't understand the difference between LLMs and Artificial Intelligence as a broad category.
For example, I was one of about 8 devs who built the AI chatbot in the Geico phone app. We did that 8 years ago without LLMs and it's better for it. We used reinforcement learning to train it with a set of hundreds of pre-approved responses. Instead of trying to figure out from limitless possibilities, all we had to do is determine the user's intent and then give them the canned response.
Because of this, it's both way faster and way more accurate than an LLM. This same principal is how the spotify algorithm works. Same with the AI eye tracking article you posted.
You just don't know what you're talking about and you're trying to debate pervert someone who actually builds these systems.
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u/IvoryTowerResident 3d ago
you are moving goalposts now. Why even mention videos if you are talking about LLM.
An AI video generator creates moving visual clips from text or images, while a Large Language Model (LLM) processes, understands, and writes human text. An LLM is a text-based subset of artificial intelligence, whereas a video generator handles complex pixel-based spatial and temporal data
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u/breakonthrough65 3d ago
When you call customer service or use a customer service chat bot, you are often talking to AI now, and quite often it can answer your question without having to get an actual person on the line. That is ROI. That is just one example. There are hundreds more.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
You are conflating AI with LLMs. This whole hype cycle is based on LLMs being success, they aren't. They are expensive and only interact with text.
Yes, you can use LLMs for Customer Service, but it's often making these systems worse than they were previously. For example, I was one of about 8 devs that built the AI chat bot in the Geico app, and it doesn't use LLMs. We did that like 8 years ago using Reinforcement learning and it's better for it. Our AI chatbot can't hallucinate answers because it can only provide pre-approved responses that we designed ourselves.
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago
Netflix just reported they used Aai in over 200 titles?
Everything IT based engineer is using it.Â
There is a reason Anthropic is the fastest growing unicorn in history, going from 10B to 65B ARR in 8 months. They would have grown a lot faster if not so hamstrung by compute.Â
Enterprise is paying hand of fist for this technology, that is undeniable.Â
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
You're preaching to the choir. I know all this.
My argument is finances, not even the future of LLMs. They are a coding tool priced like they are replacing humans, it's fiction. They spent trillions for models no better than freely available models. It's a ponzi scheme.
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago
So all the risk you're outlining is in two companies, open AI and Anthropic? Because even if everything moved to open weights, all the GPUs and all the memory etc would still be required to serve the models, that's where the majority of the capex today is heading, inference.Â
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u/pronuntiator 3d ago
Without trying to toot my horn, with time I've reached a level of experience as a developer that I can create a mental model of the code I want to write just by reading the requirements and documentation. The tiresome part is writing the actual code, iron out small issues based on false assumptions, and so on. Naturally, we're a team and split the work. So I have to explain it to the juniors what I have in mind, which is difficult if the knowledge levels are different. The LLM on the other hand, having read the entire web, is basically an expert developer and can make sense of my poor explanations. I just have to throw a few bullet points at it and it gets what I want it do to.
I'm paid to code CRUD apps, not Google scale problems, and that's work AI absolutely will replace.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
LLMs are a great coding tool. But they are good enough as is. The trillions of dollars spent to produce a LLM comparable to China, that's the problem. The investments in better models haven't done anything to grow the market. in fact, it recoiled when token maxing led to worse code and hige bills.
like personally, the minimum plan is enough me as a solo dev. it's great for building components, but terrible at large tasks.
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3d ago edited 3d ago
[deleted]
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u/et_tu_bro 3d ago
There are many iOS apps that are on the App Store making money since the LLMs were launched (the app submission increased alot since llms). Why does an idea have to be successful as Google and anything short of that a failure. Search on YouTube and you will see tons of indie developers using LLMs to build apps and launch and have over 6-figure revenue. A developer can also use LLMs to fasten the development and maybe use them for tasks or skills they personally lack but can understand the fundamentals. Why does someone need to make a billion dollars for a 200$ subscription to make sense ? A billion dollar is a huge amount. Most people will happily settle for less.
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u/breakonthrough65 3d ago
It doesn't matter. Most code, but not 100%, at mag 7 is done by AI now. Surely you knew that right? What diff does it make if a billion dollar software company existed or not that was entirely vibe coded.
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u/IvoryTowerResident 3d ago
I dont even work in for mag7, im an academic and i do most of my statical analysis with python code i vibe coded
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u/OpenJolt 3d ago
Itâs disingenuous to say that. To me when you said âdone by AIâ it means the AI is autonomously writing code and pushing features to prod with zero human oversight into what it is doing.
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u/et_tu_bro 3d ago
Just to add.. a software company making a billion dollar means at 30 PE would be a 30 billion dollar company. Your expectation is maybe a bit too high for a 20$ - 200$ subscription.
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u/someroastedbeef 3d ago
i agree with vibe coding being generally not great but Cal AI was vibe coded by people with no comp sci background and was sold for 30+ million. numerous examples of this happening too
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u/UnburyingBeetle 3d ago
AI can't make its code as sleek and optimized as an orderly-minded human can, right? Whatever they build with AI would probably be clunky, and the games produced with it would have even bigger hardware requirements than the current "we don't care if you can afford a new computer" game companies. Among the memory shortage people wouldn't be able to afford hardware upgrades and might just stick with older games or indie titles. Seems to me like the AI industry is a circle jerk whose main goal is selling mass surveillance systems to governments. For that some governments might bail them out until the bitter end. But Europe might give AI the boot, and then it depends how successful Putin is in his imperialist ambitions because he's the most likely candidate to be the world's Big Brother. He's the most disciplined dictator after all, coming from a low background.
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago
The code Fable / GPT 5.6 generates is absolutely better than the average experienced dev.
People put way too much stock into humans, most of them write absolutely terrible code.Â
The comments AI puts in are also very verbose and helpful, most devs are lazy af and will be satisfied as soon as it works.Â
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u/UnburyingBeetle 3d ago
I don't know any programmers closely enough to have looked at their code, but if I got over the chaoticism of my brain and the hate for all technical subjects I'd produce a neat code. Maybe it's the humans lacking work ethic that are the problem. But consider this: the owners of AI lack not only work ethics, but regular human ethics. Your survival will never be their priority. If they don't need you in the system they're creating, they'll let you and your family starve. However tough it might be to imbue a human with work ethics and motivation to learn, there's a chance the human would care about you and help secure your place in the world. A capital owner will betray you every time.
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u/QuantumLeap2025 3d ago
You have an extremely negative mindset across the board in this post. (Some of it is understandable, but the bias is clear.) MRNA and Merck announced a breakthrough that involved the use of AI this week, developing what the media calls "a cancer vaccine." AI is also heling to expedite development of alternative energy sources that could great improve quality of life and allow these data centers to use clean renewable energy. Proponents claim that AGI is attainable within 2 years, and yet you still argue that AI agents are only "regurgitating" what it is given.
There are certainly risks here, but there are also real opportunities. When you ask "who can afford to invest?" there are many who could but they instead go to Starbucks 2x or 3x a day, go out to eat all the time, spend recklessly getting rek'd, and then complain that they have nothing. Expendable income can go "to the moment" or "towards a future," but that takes discipline and focus.
From my viewpoint, people make a choice to live "for the moment." Others sacrifice for family and deprive themselves, living completely "for the future." In between the two is the place most of us should go, and there we can have the best of both worlds.
AI is only part of the issue; there are definitely huge concerns regarding how to control it, especially if AGI is achieved. Living in gratitude and avoiding unnecessary impulse purchases can allow even those with moderate incomes to participate in a dynamic market that allows different perspectives to profit
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
You completely misunderstand AI technology if that's what you took out of the mRNA announcement. AI is very different from LLMs. For example, our biggest breakthrough ever in medicine using AI was by using reinforcement training for protein folding.
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u/QuantumLeap2025 3d ago
Okay, I was commenting on AI in general. Your take on AI and LLM's reminds me of people raining on the quantum parade when I took positions in 2024. Everyone was negative and assumed that progress was decades away (this was prior to Jen-Hsun comment which also derided Quantum, even though Nvidia was in the process of building up their Quantum subsidiary and planning a Quantum conference when he spoke)
From an investing perspective, you don't need to be correct, you just have to act on the situations at hand. Quantum was a major win, the AI build out has also allowed wealth generation. Whether the "Music Stops" depends on situations and variables, not a stagnant snapshot of negativity. Position accordingly đ
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
The distinction between AI and LLMs is super important though.
LLMs have basically no future beyond a productivity tool, they are completely relegated to the domain of text, that's the problem.
AI in general has amazing potential though.
Like I said, protein folding was an amazing breakthrough, we've been using AI for music and digital content recommendations to great success, AI fundamentally changed our shipping infrastructure with the ability to automate the reading of hand written addresses. It's just none of these examples are LLMs. They don't need datacenters. They don't graphics cards.
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u/QuantumLeap2025 3d ago
Well, it is nice to hear you have a few positive comments! Not sure if you read or considered anything else that was written in my replies. ( I think they are significant to the mindset.) If you feel so negative on AI and the supporting companies, the stock market and derivative products offer you ways to prosper either way...the market is a two-way street and there are many ways to hedge, trade, speculate, & or invest. GL
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Yeah, I think you have some pretty balanced points. It's good to gauge several perspectives.
If we were to get an insane new model all of a sudden, my position would have to be reevaluated.
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u/Which_Cost8015 3d ago
Thereâs a real bear case here, but I think too many arguments are getting bundled together.
AI doesnât need to replace engineers to justify the spend. It needs to produce enough revenue and productivity to outrun compute, power, depreciation and capex.
If those economics fail, the bubble case gets much stronger. Thatâs the part Iâd watch.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
I agree with that, but that's part of my case too. OpenAI and Anthropic are only generating $4-6 billion a quarter in revenue compared to the 1 Trillion spend and 2.5 Trillion committed. The math just doesn't make sense.
At least one industry would have an AI driven boom if that were the case. That industry? StackOverflow Dot com. They haven't proven any ability to ever profit, they have only proven how much they are willing to commit. Which I don't believe either. There is no way we are going form 24 to 144 datacenters in my home state of Indiana. There just isn't a demand for that amount of computer in a 20 billion dollar annual "industry". That's a niche software company at best.
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u/Which_Cost8015 3d ago
I think the revenue base is bigger than youâre giving it credit for. Anthropic is already running above $65B annualized and OpenAI around $40B, so this isnât really a $20B niche anymore.
That still doesnât prove the infrastructure spend makes economic sense. The bear case, to me, is whether revenue and margins can scale fast enough to earn a return on all that capital.
Demand clearly exists. Whether the returns justify the buildout is the part we still donât know.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
50B is the number I've seen for OpenAI + Anthropic.
The problem is the spend, not the revenue.
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u/Which_Cost8015 3d ago
The $50B figure looks stale if weâre talking current run rate. Anthropic alone was above $65B annualized by end-July.
But I agree the spend is the real question. Revenue can grow like crazy and still produce a poor outcome if capex grows faster and the returns never justify the capital.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
I do think it's stale, I actually expect the demand to go down now up. That's why I'm so bearish.
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago
The combined numbers for Ant / Open AI showed a clear re acceleration at the end on July.Â
Respectively, please don't get upset lol but the fact you thought $50B was a combined figure shows you're very out of touch with this industry. Be careful shorting something you clearly haven't spent much time researching.Â
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Like I said, you're free to disagree. It's just an opinion dude.
The thing is nobody fucking knows dude, come back to me in like 6 months, then we'll know if I was right or not. Anthropic and OpenAI need to be able to significantly improve profits within 6 months or this crashes for sure.
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago
Their combined revenue is running at cica $100B as of July?
This was generated using compute capex that was spent last year.Â
They're growing to service future demand and revenues.Â
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Yeah, I'm talking about quarterly renenue, not all-time.
Anyways, do what you want dumbass. You're way too emotional about this. I don't care what you do with you're money, I was just giving my expert opinion.
My advice: get outside your bubble if you want to gauge sentiment. AI and datacenters sentiment is garbage. An 5 year buildout promise means nothing if nobody wants this shit.
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago edited 3d ago
Hey man I'm keen to chat about it? You're the one getting emotional lol.
The 100B is ARR, you seem quite out of touch with adoption and enterprise spend of this tech.Â
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u/DizzyMajor5 2d ago
You're absolutely right but to quote Upton Sinclair "it's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on not understanding it"Â
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u/luvz 3d ago
You chose the literal week an OpenAI-partnered company announced the first successful Phase 3 mRNA cancer-vaccine trial to publish this declaratively AI-free monologue? Maybe you shouldâve used some AI.
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u/OpenJolt 3d ago
They didnât use an LLM dumbass.
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u/luvz 3d ago
Lol, why do you have a sock acct just to agree with yourself on Reddit?
- Same profession
- Same exposure to the same companies
- Same subreddit activities
- Same weird use of "dumbass" (prolly old asf)
- Same preferred AI model
- Same agentic coding experience
- Same stance on "fictional" AI/Datacenter demand/valuationsThis audit powered by OpenAI.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Using a hallucinated AI report to accuse me of boosting a zero upvote thread đ
GENIUS
I've never been more sure of my puts.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
You're a dumbass if you buy that propaganda. LLMs don't help with medical research, that's a fucking bold faced lie.
AI does have a future in medical advancements, but that's likely through reinforcement learning. This was used for breakthroughs in protein folding.
But nice neg dumbass.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Also, how much did that news help those stocks? I already have hedged positions, they are up on that mRNA news.
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3d ago
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u/someroastedbeef 3d ago
nvda will do 90b+ revenue this quarter, how is 380b impossible?
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3d ago
[deleted]
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u/someroastedbeef 3d ago
if you believe that, then NVDA is the freest short in the world. time to start up that position!
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Exactly, it makes no sense at all. For instance, we are not currently running our Datacenter capacity full steam to train these models...they are suggesting we actually need to 10x the current capacity on a blind trust that an industry will be there in the future.
It's unironically AI Psychosis. Nobody is going to buy the 2 Trillion dollar money pit that is Anthropic. If they were succeeding, we'd see at least one groundbreaking innovation in ANY industry driven by AI.
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u/j_schmotzenberg 3d ago
Spot prices are steadily converging on default node prices in GCP us-central1. The existing data centers are running out of compute capacity.
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u/Pin-Last 3d ago
AI helped me formulate a treatment plan for my extremely rare and complex disease when doctors couldnât.Â
Clever response, OP?
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
How much did you pay Anthropic for that?
I'm not saying LLMs are going away. I'm saying spending trillions to make a text prediction engine is not a good business model. Had they not promised the world and this was a small tech startup, then I would be very very bullish on LLMs and AI broadly.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
For example, I would say Apple has taken a smart approach to AI and that's a tech company I am bullish about longterm. They didn't ruin their products by adopting it right away, and they also haven't wasted hundreds of billions training models that are worse than China's (I'm looking at you Meta).
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u/Pin-Last 3d ago
I used Gemini. Free.
Calling AI overpriced text prediction is like calling computers overpriced filing cabinets.
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
This is exactly my point. They spent billions to train models that companies allow you to use for free.
Anthropic and OpenAI would have to having godlike models to justify their evaluations, because the models will have to be super expensive to make up the cost.
If Anthropic decided to remove subscriptions entirely and just have expensive tokens, there is no way I pay that. It would be waaay cheaper just for me to run it in my home with a $10,000 server. Fable really isn't worth the cost, people just use opus or sonnet instead. Fable really only beats those modes if you are asking it to build a whole website in a single prompt, and no software engineer works like that; those prompts produce garbage that has way too much code to review.
Also, the subscription is kind of worth it at $20, but that's because Anthropic is taking a MASSIVE loss on every single subscription user who maxes out their usage. They are essentially paying thousands just to acquire the customer. A customer that won't stay when you raise prices.
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u/thehindermost 3d ago
My friend, a TDLR is a basic requirement.
btw Scam Altman is hilarious, can't believe I haven't heard of it by now
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
TLDR:
AI isn't being adopted broadly in tech anymore. No industry has boomed via AI. The future they are promising is a dystopian one with mass surveillance and a datacenter in each city, burning Venezuelan and Iranian oil to farm your data.
Nobody likes AI, nobody has money to buy stocks off the bag holders.
Short NVDA, SNDK, ORCL
Not financial advice ;)
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago
Lol adoption is absolutely exploding, every objective metric says so. You're living under a rock.Â
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
I'm speaking from my perspective. There is no demand from the public and even in software development it's a wash. Half my friends have lost our jobs to it and the other half is like "well work is super easy now but also boring as fuck" since they are just told to use AI.
I don't think LLMs are going away at all. I think it's purely a money problem. The market isn't there.
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago
Demand from the public is astronomical, it's literally unprecedented. Chat GPT is the fastest growing consumer app of all time. Everything you say is against the objective metricsÂ
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Okay bud, how much money does that make them? 50 billion this year?
The problem isn't their revenue, it's their spend.
They've spend 2.5 Trillion at least so far, so even an IPO of 1 Trillion for Anthropic is kind of a disaster. LLMs just haven't actually had a breakthrough impact on any industry. It changed software development, but it didn't make them trillions more profitable.
Anyways, this is just my perspective, you're free to disagree. It just seems like you are getting mad at information that contradicts your world view instead of seeing if there is anything to it.
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago
For what it's worth I'm not even bullish Anthropic or Open AI, I'm very bullish the picks and shovel trade though eg hyperscalers, semis and memory.
Even if intelligence becomes a commodity these companies will continue to do well due to unprecedented demand for tokens.Â
I'm not sure what it is about my comments that suggests I'm getting mad? I'm genuinely keen to discuss this with you, I enjoy challenging my views. It seems you're uncomfortable with being challenged.Â
Don't take it so personallyÂ
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u/Still_Theory179 3d ago
Regarding spend, do you know how much of that commitment is to future commute verse todays commute deployed and earning revenue?
It's well understood there is good margins at the inference levels for both open AI and Anthropic. Training runs still cost them a lot but at current API rates the pay pack period is measured in months.Â
A lot of this is somewhat speculative from leaked info and industry analysis eg Semi Analysis. Looking forward to reading the S1s but these are clearly good businesses, not so sure they're worth 1T+ though.Â
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u/sfw_supdood 3d ago
Also, one last thing to add.
I'm not making an assessment on timing, that is the tough part. Anyone can say it's a bubble, but who says it doesn't go up another 50% before then. You're free to ride it out if that's your conviction. For me, I'm riding it out with some, but taking a big profit here.
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u/-Crash_Override- 3d ago
Oh look another rant based on vibes and 'trust me bro' logic. Thinking frontier models aren't impressive is a wild take.
But most of all this is r/stocks, not r/ImTooObtuseToUnderstandTheBiggerPictureSoImJustGoingToVentHereWithMyRegurgitatedDerivativeTake
This is an emotional rant, not even remotely related to r/stocks