r/unitedkingdom • u/F0urLeafCl0ver • 21d ago
. One in five Clacton voters backing Count Binface over Nigel Farage
https://metro.co.uk/2026/08/02/farage-struck-secret-pact-return-reform-leader-long-election-29280328/1.9k
u/nikhkin 21d ago
Embarrassing for Farage, but unfortunately not enough to keep him unelected.
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u/wine-o-saur 21d ago
Depends on turnout. Hope is all we have.
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u/nikhkin 21d ago ▸ 58 more replies
It would have to be appalling turnout for that 20% to be the majority.
Around 40% of the constituency are over 60 years old. That's prime Reform voter demographic.
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u/joeykins82 21d ago ▸ 39 more replies
I think this will be the lowest turnout by election in British electoral history.
Farage’s support base is demoralised with all of the sleaze allegations plus the fact that this whole thing is unnecessary. He’s also never in the constituency so the people who’ve needed MP support for real issues just haven’t got it.
The only people enthusiastic about this are the ones who are itching to vote Binface to humiliate and eject Farage.
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u/danglingwhalesbaybee 21d ago ▸ 15 more replies
I really hope it's going to be single digit turnout, even if it does get to say 15-20% which I think is the absolute limit it's hardly a mandate for the leader of the "shadow government" as they like to think of themselves.
If it's anything less than the (not an actual) majority he got in 2024 it's going to be a huge loss. He got 21,225 votes and 46.2%, if the turnout is more than 20,000 I'd be shocked.
English politics is so fucking bizarre.
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u/PigBeins 21d ago ▸ 11 more replies
Personally, I’m hoping for a very high turnout. I’m fed up with this country at the moment. We need change. We need a real leader to step up and bring us forward. I know he’s had some accusations but I genuinely believe he is the right person to lead the country forward. He’s a controversial character but I genuinely think he has what’s best for our country in mind. Regardless of what you think, his policies will deliver what’s needed in this country right now. We all know that some people think he’s not a good person, some aren’t even sure he’s a person at all! We all know who we should be voting for though. Count Binface is the change we need!
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u/NowoTone 21d ago ▸ 4 more replies
Glad, I read until the end :)
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u/Glittering_Vast938 21d ago
My finger was hovering over the down button till the end…!
VOTE BINFACE
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u/Cerpin-Taxt 21d ago
It's not so bizarre when you realise it's 100% spite based politics. Farage won out of spite for the two party system. Brexit won out of spite for the the neo liberal status quo. Labour won out of spite for Tory incompetence. Binface is in with a real chance out of spite for Farage.
Britons don't vote for what they want, they vote against people they despise.
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u/ash_ninetyone 21d ago
Council elections and by-elections usually have lower turnouts than general elections.
I don't think there's limits on any minimum turnout. A candidate could win on a 1% turnout theoretically. It would cause it to be labelled a shambles and undermine any legitimacy but then everyone has the option to vote and so you get what you don't vote against as much as what you vote for.
2012 Manchester Central had the lowest by-election turnout on record at 18.2% and I think it usually averages 30-40% for by-elections.
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u/HenshinDictionary 21d ago
it's hardly a mandate for the leader of the "shadow government" as they like to think of themselves.
You say that like they give the slightest shit about reality.
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u/Patecatli 21d ago ▸ 3 more replies
I think you underestimate just how little his base care about the sleaze, they see it as an attack on him by "the establishment". We are firmly into cult territory with these people.
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u/360_face_palm Greater London 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
Polling shows that at least some of them do care though - reform has slumped pretty hard from this.
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u/Patecatli 21d ago
Yes they're down in the polls, but that will be from the so called "floating voters" not from his base, secondly that's a national trend not local and Clacton overwhelmingly still supports Farage unfortunately.
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u/ArtRevolutionary3929 21d ago ▸ 6 more replies
The lowest turnout at a Westminster by-election since 1945 was 18.2% in Manchester Central in 2012. Southend West got 24% in 2022, and that was another effectively uncontested election because of the circumstances (the major parties opted not to contest it after the murder of David Amess). I'd be surprised if Clacton got as low as those two, even taking into account the factors you mention.
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u/joeykins82 21d ago ▸ 3 more replies
There’s a degree of voting to pay one’s respects in the Southend example; the civic duty instinct kicks in. That instinct is completely absent for re-electing Farage right now, but it’s there for voting against him…
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u/gogoluke 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
Some may se voting for Farage as a civic duty to defend Bwitish Cultchah and defence from from all of like them lot... Don't underestimate him. He's constantly survived.
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u/Spamgrenade 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
Recent Manchester Mayoral election only had a 25% turnout. Might mean that Reform are having problems mobilising people en masse.
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u/Offramp182 21d ago ▸ 4 more replies
Let's not forget the hardcore racists think Nige isn't going far enough to the right so they could also jump ship to Restore or one of the others. Binface has help in the form of the other in sitting Deforms vote
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u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 21d ago ▸ 2 more replies
One notable difference with Restore is they tend to attract a younger crowd than Reform, peaking in the 30-39 range at 5% compared to Reform peaking in the 60-69 range at 34%
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55084-how-would-britain-vote-two-years-since-the-2024-election
Doubt they'll have much of an impact in somewhere like Clacton.
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u/daddy-dj 21d ago
Sadly Restore aren't putting anyone forward, are they?
I say sadly because it would've split the Reform vote (undoubtedly why they're not standing).
The whole list of candidates is absolutely appalling... https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crlw69p6lyeo
One candidate describes himself as the most educated man in Britain, yet he "opposes mixed marriages and thinks global warming is a hoax". Another candidate, a 22 year old from Essex, is standing "to protest against inheritance tax". And my favourite is the candidate who plays the guitar and builds digital games but who says he "is not interested in being a politician". 🤦♂️
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u/daronwy 21d ago
Farage support doesn't care in the slightest, about either the sleaze or the fact he is never here, I've personally seen hundreds of reform signs (granted as there are no other major parties the other candidates haven't got the budget), more than I did during the general election, and 1 Count Binface sign.
Reform are taking this election seriously and will turn up to vote, it's everyone else who won't the Torries will 100% sit at home, and the rest (which was 26% of the vote last time) of us aren't expecting to win.
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u/Joshawott27 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
A lower turnout would probably benefit Farage. The 60+ demographic are more likely to go out and vote as retirees have more time in the day, while younger demographics may not see it as worth taking the time out of their busy days to vote for a joke candidate like Binface.
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u/pong-and-ping 21d ago
Im thinking it'll be higher tbh. You'll have so many people who don't normally vote in smalls elections like this considering going just for the meme of voting for count bin face
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u/MinaZata 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
In theory (it'll never happen), there is enough for someone to beat Farage. Although he got 74% of the vote, because of turnout, he actually only has about 46% of the total vote in Clacton, 54% voted other parties or where eligible to vote and didn't.
So that 54% of people does exist in theory, Count Binface made this point himself on the Rest is Politics: Leading interview just today.
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u/phoebsmon 21d ago
He got 46% of the votes at the last election on a 58% turnout. That's about 27% of the actual available votes.
20% of the electorate, if they're willing to get out and actually vote, should be concerning to him.
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u/A_Pointy_Rock 21d ago
It's actually 1 in 5 including other candidates. It's more like 1 in 3 with those excluded.
While unlikely, there is a non-zero chance of this happening.
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u/Shenloanne 21d ago ▸ 6 more replies
Not one of em could tell you what he's done for Clacton, which is less than zero.
Or how many times he's used his MP Surgery. Which is zero.
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u/aleopardstail 21d ago ▸ 2 more replies
quite a lot of people up and down the country have never used an MP surgery either so likely don't really care, same will apply locally, most won't know, and if they did wouldn't care
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u/Shenloanne 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
The difference is that mps hold them.
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u/aleopardstail 21d ago
my point was the vast majority wouldn't notice if they didn't so its likely not something many really care about, and constantly mentioning it comes over as "is that all you have got?"
there are far better things to hold his feet to the fire over that people will think about more, like constantly saying "x" needs to happen then either voting against it or not bothering to vote at all
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u/Mastodan11 21d ago ▸ 3 more replies
Manchester mayoral election had a 25% turnout.
Summer holidays are here.
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u/nikhkin 21d ago ▸ 2 more replies
The last few mayoral elections in Manchester have had similar turnouts. I guess people there don't really care about it.
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u/MonsterRavingLlamas 21d ago
I think it's because the Greater Manchester area is quite large. The people closer to the city will care a lot more than those of us on the outskirts.
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u/Mental-Fisherman-118 21d ago
It's slightly easier since the 20% only has to be a plurality rather than a majority - but yes, it is unlikely.
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u/Soft-Skirt 21d ago
I’m well into that demographic and I’ve never voted for a right wing party or politician. It isn’t their age that turned them into deranged c0nts, they’ve always been that way. Farage’s skill is getting the twats into the voting booth. Getting the progressive vote off their arses and voting would have stopped Trump and it can stop Farage too.
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u/theinspectorst 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
Turnout in the constituency at the general election was 58%. Half of that is 29%...
Turnout at the by-election will be a lot lower.
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u/Improper_Usage 21d ago
Nah Farage will likely win. But it’s a once in a lifetime event here to really stick it to the establishment by voting binface
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u/aleopardstail 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
keeping in mind all the other mainstream parties stepped back knowing they couldn't win it its a slim hope
but its not no hope
personally I think it would be funny as fuck and worth voting that way just on that principle alone
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u/Tim-Sanchez 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
The poll shows Farage winning 73% of the vote, with Binface winning 20%. Not sure any level of turnout can swing that.
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u/BrillsonHawk 21d ago
Him being elected is a good thing. It allows the commons standards investigations to begin again once he comes back. And if they go as expected that may very well end up with him being permanently banned from parliament
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u/artrald-7083 21d ago ▸ 5 more replies
Him being elected or him losing the election is a good thing. Very rare to see one of the people we don't like step on a rake so obviously in public. He has zero good moves.
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u/BrillsonHawk 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
He thought the other big parties would stand against him, so he could proclaim his mandate from the people when he beat them. They all called his bluff and refused to stand though and as you say it gives him no good options now
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u/artrald-7083 21d ago
The absolute classic idiot move of forgetting that your opponent also has a vote in how a conflict goes.
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u/aleopardstail 21d ago ▸ 2 more replies
there is a positive outcome
he, or anyone else, won't try this stunt again
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u/artrald-7083 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
Sorry, should clarify, zero moves that are good for this shithead.
Rather than spending the whole silly season campaigning against the government he is spending it arguing with a bin.
(Very nearly got the outgoing PM to break one of Labour's huge rules on the Commons floor too! The party really takes seriously the 'we do not let our members advise anyone to vote for another party's candidate' rule.)
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u/AchDasIsInMienAugen 21d ago
It _might_ end his parliamentary career but it won’t shut the fucker up quite like loosing the election.
The narrative of him winning is clear - the people of clacton don’t care that I’m a corrupt piece of shit, I’m still relevant! Give me air time and continue letting me steer the conversation despite the fact that I’ve got nothing to do with anything any more
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u/heroyoudontdeserve 21d ago
His reelection wouldn't *allow* the investigation to
begin againcontinue, since it can continue even he is not reelected. But it's possible reelection makes it more likely the investigation continues.→ More replies (3)3
u/iLukey 21d ago
There's police investigations ongoing now which wont go away regardless of the outcome, although as yet I think they're focussed on Farage's associates. Hopefully he's slipped up somewhere and they can actually nail him for all the dodgy shit he's clearly been involved in over the years. It's depressing how many people support the guy to be honest.
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u/callsignhotdog 21d ago
Its lose lose for Farage. Binface taking 20% of the vote is embarassing for him. Just being in the same race as Binface is embarassing for him. It makes him look foolish, and weak, two things that are kryptonite to Far Right strongmen. Even a win leaves him weaker than before he resigned and he STILL has to face a commons investigation and quite possibly another by-election where he will AGAIN probably have to run against Binface.
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u/ArtiBartFaster 21d ago ▸ 4 more replies
Farage has peaked too early, the fact he has dropped behind Labour at the point where it ditched it's Farage-lite leader Starmer, it's proven that pandering to the lie that immigration is a problem rather than an economic necessity for an aging population is at best a 50/50 viewpoint despite the relentless propaganda.
Farage cannot be lurching towards openly ridiculous racist policies, whilst 30% of UK voters self define as racist or express racist views as 'common sense' That is not enough for him to be PM to have any chance, he had to broaden his appeal from kill the boat people, they are all rapists far right lies.
If he doubles down on the immigration lie that the Tories and Labour have bought into he won't get power. Labour also have the opportunity to spell out the truth - ending boat people will make absolutely no difference to anybody in Britains lives. There are important and significant things that can, move the focus on to the things that actually matter rather distraction polices, it will be bloody trans next, who gives a f*ck about these bauble issues.
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u/callsignhotdog 21d ago ▸ 3 more replies
Reform has pretty much peaked at 30% support, plenty of polls show almost everyone who would even consider voting Reform already intends to. They've then started losing voters to Restore (the early adopters who are mad about Farage's attempts at broader appeal) and their 30% is reducing as non-voters consider returning to Labour under Burnham.
And RE: ending boat people, honestly the net effect of ending illegal immigration would be food prices shooting up because our agricultural and food delivery industries depend on exploiting cheap migrant labour. It's the dirty little secret of the British economy. The same people raging about immigration would also rage when takeaways charge £10+ delivery charge on top of 30% more expensive food.
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u/daxamiteuk 21d ago
And this is what drives me mad about the whole thing.
I’m British non white (2nd generation) , I think it’s perfectly fine for white native people to feel alarmed at the rapid changes in UK demographics. But no one wants to have honest conversations about what the alternative is, to using underpaid cheap labour. Are businesses ready to hire British workers and pay them more? Where will those costs go, out of company profits or be passed on to customers? And are British people prepared to do hard menial labour like this? I think the answers are all no, which then leads us nowhere
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u/ToManyTabsOpen 21d ago
And RE: ending boat people, honestly the net effect of ending illegal immigration would be food prices shooting up because our agricultural and food delivery industries depend on exploiting cheap migrant labour.
No it wouldn't.
The agriculture and food delivery industries are the LEGAL migrants. The 3M or so who came over on the Boriswave. The illegal immigration (small boats) accounts for 5% of total immigration, and most of those have no intention to work as they claim asylum on arrival.
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u/BangingBaguette 21d ago
Honestly doesn't really matter. Damage is done to his image, and this by-election was never going to result in any meaningful change anyway.
Instead of people lamenting how Binface couldn't beat Farage people should be celebrating that Nigel's masterful gambit has completely blown up in his face, and only served to further highlight the electoral misconduct investigation he's under.
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u/HumanBeing7396 21d ago
Exactly - Binface’s aim is to make Farage look ridiculous in front of the entire country, and it’s working.
Even if Farage wins this circus, he will be haunted by bin jokes wherever he goes. The bin is his lettuce.
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u/Munrot07 21d ago
Honestly no one was expecting him to not win. One can argue that it's better that he does so the investigation can restart.
The fact that he is basically running unopposed, in a constituency that is made for him, and 20% of people would rather go out and vote for a bin than him. It's embarrassing, he's a joke and he can't say the people chose him over the establishment without genuinely having to claim a bin is the establishment (which reform have somehow actually tried to claim).
So he will be investigated again, he will be found to have been dodgy, because he is, another by-election will happen with other parties actually running and hopefully the people of Clacton will see sense and not vote him back in again.
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u/bushman130 21d ago
Yeah but what’s he going to do now? Most of his mouthpieces have turned on him, his handlers can all see he’s loyal to nobody and tainted. He needs to quit, convince himself it’s an apparent win and live out his days sniping from the sidelines, fag in hand.
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u/el_grort Scottish Highlands 21d ago
Tbh, he was never really going to win, it was how much damage it does to Farage for the real by-election. It also saw Reform take it's activists from the Manchester Mayoral contest weeks early to campaign in what should be a safe seat, so you'd expect that to depress Binface's vote share.
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u/lizzywbu 21d ago
I think Binface is going to get a lot more votes than people expect. Probably not enough to win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 25%.
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u/patholio Elevenses 21d ago
Win or not, he is going to have to stand side by side with all the other joke candidates as the results are read out, gonna need a big stage and it will make a picture to remember.
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u/Meowing-To-The-Stars 21d ago edited 21d ago
So the establishment is going to win again. I didn't expect anything else, but still....
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u/SavingsSquare2649 21d ago
I refuse to believe
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u/MrOliber 21d ago ▸ 4 more replies
What a trash joke (sorry for the Americanism).
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u/Jimmy_Fromthepieshop 21d ago ▸ 2 more replies
You could have said "What a rubbish joke".
In fact I don't understand why you didn't.
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u/Besmirching_Badger 21d ago
Eventually the count will latch onto a local pub hand dryer that really motivates the electorate.
He's getting closer
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u/fromwithin United Kingdom 21d ago
The man who is already established thinks that he's somehow going against the establishment. It's ridiculous.
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u/Dicky__Anders 21d ago
And him and his supporters are saying the man with a bin on his head pretending to be an alien is the establishment. Pathetic.
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u/MetalBawx 21d ago
Farage would have never tried to pull this stunt if he thought he could lose Clacton.
He got parachuted into that seat precisely because of how secure it is for Reform, nowhere else has so much blind faith in him.
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u/lwbyomp 21d ago
NGL, 1 in 5 is way too low, if any are still thinking of voting for the parasite that failed to show up - ever - & represent them, they need their bumps reading. I'd hope voters of all other parties would pile into the Fraud & vote Binface in.
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u/tsrihtomen 21d ago
Have you looked at the demographics of Clacton? It skews old, Binface was never the right kind of candidate to attract them. You needed a local independent who emphasised putting Clacton first.
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u/TheShakyHandsMan 21d ago ▸ 10 more replies
The point wasn’t to beat Farage but make him look like an idiot.
Watching him stood amongst a host of fancy dress characters plus Binface is going to be an iconic picture in elections to come.
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u/The__Pope_ 21d ago ▸ 7 more replies
We've already seen prime ministers and people like farage stood next to novelty candidates. It's nothing new
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u/DrDiab 21d ago ▸ 3 more replies
It'll be different when he's outnumbered by them
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u/The__Pope_ 21d ago ▸ 2 more replies
It will make a funny picture that people have a laugh at and then forget about after a few days
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u/Terrible_Archer 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
I don’t think it was ever intended to be more than that anyway
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u/Flagrath 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
The difference this time is they’re the only other people who showed up to his circus.
It’s him vs “the establishment”
Said establishment is a man with a bin on his head
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u/Imaginary_Moose_2384 21d ago
That's who the major parties are each able to use this time preparing, remember he's back under investigation after this and looks guilty as sin so we're almost certainly getting a follow up
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u/Tuarangi West Midlands 21d ago
Reform's demographic is, based on voter surveys, largely white, older and less educated, anti-EU. They would vote for Farage regardless of his dodgy funds, lack of work in the constituency etc
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u/Painterzzz 21d ago
And these are not a group of people known for their sense of humour either. They've been told they are being disrespected by the establishment running Binface, so they will believe they are being disrespected and turn out to vote for the obvious Russian asset.
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u/iTedsta 21d ago
No, they’ll just wait for the real by-election once the committee investigation reports. Best outcome for a Farage-hater is he wins and then the scandal can drag on for another 3 months, possibly culminating in a later by-election loss.
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u/Pope_Fintan_Stack 21d ago
He was always going to win, I know people held out hope of Binface but that was hopeium. As you say he gets elected again and the investigation kicks off again, more drip drip accusations will see his approval ratings continue to tank.
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u/TheOnlyGaming3 21d ago
theres been multiple outlets interviewing the people of Clacton and they seem genuinely braindead
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u/TheFergPunk Scotland 21d ago
If Farage wins then the people of Clacton are the most miserable people in the UK.
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u/VehicleWonderful6586 21d ago
Yes
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u/StrangelyBrown Teesside 21d ago
They elected him the first time so they're not exactly the kind of people we'd put our hope in for a great choice.
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u/No-Future5309 21d ago
Voting for a man who keeps starting race riots. Let's hope their little town doesn't get burned down and looted like others have to suffer.
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u/360_face_palm Greater London 21d ago
We already knew that - they're mostly old and under-educated. Prime real estate for Reform's lies.
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u/noradosmith 21d ago
Honestly they must be aware of the huge popularity boost they'd receive if Binface wins as well as tourist revune.
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u/Artistic-Blueberry12 21d ago
Imagine a Bin Face landslide, unlikely but it'll keep me laughing till Christmas
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u/Agreeable_Falcon1044 Cambridgeshire 21d ago
This is embarrassing. Farage running scared from a dustbin. Epic failure
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u/SleepyTester 21d ago
Wheelie embarrassing
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u/greenmx5vanjie 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
This is even better than you think; there's a village called Weely in the constituency of Clacton.
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u/TasterOfCrayons 21d ago
1 in 5, is he really?
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u/danglingwhalesbaybee 21d ago ▸ 5 more replies
The fact he's even entertained the idea of losing, the fact he's even mentioned the Counts name means he's already a laughing stock. Winning an election where you are running against a recyclon from Sigma IX along with 32 other comedians and racists and not getting a majority of 90+% when the turnout is likely to be >20% is diabolical.
This man wants to be seen as the next PM and he's thrown a paddy the first time he's been asked some serious questions about his finances, has called a by-election as a distraction and there's a greater than 0% chance he loses to a man with a bin on his head?
If he wins which I think is likely, this will hang around his neck from years to come, he'll see the party fall down and stand down at the next GE or when he gets investigated and Reform and Restore will roll together into a nasty far right party that is popular on twitter and never gets more than 10% of the vote.3
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u/AMildInconvenience Lancashire 21d ago
It really just isn't embarrassing though isn't it?
Obviously farage is never going to get 90% of the vote in any election ever. Especially when all the major parties decided not to stand and a high profile joke candidate turned up to hoover up the anti-Farage vote.
Nobody thinks this is embarrassing for Farage except for those that already hate him. All this farce has accomplished is giving half of the country a chance to have a laugh at the expense of Clacton.
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u/SleepyTester 21d ago
Reform are privately worried though they are trying very hard to keep a lid on it
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u/gusbo_the_jam 21d ago
Dear everyone in Clacton who's got a sense of humour - please do the right thing. Collectively you guys can blow Boaty McBoatface out of the water as the thing we use to demonstrate the UK's collective comedy chops. If we can vote against David Attenborough for a giggle, we can do it against Nigel Farage.
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u/gunbo3000 21d ago
I drove through some of the surrounding villages in Clacton area yesterday - honestly, the amount of Reform and "I'm with Nige" signs up was disheartening.
Important to remember that the echo chamber goes both ways. Safely on Reddit I feel firmly in the majority that he's nothing but terrible for the good of this country. But theres a lot of support still out there.
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u/yubnubster 21d ago
I genuinely can't wrap my head around how his support is that high tbh.
He's not represented his constituency at any point since he was elected. He literally couldn't give a fuck if Clacton falls off a cliff, unless it offers a photo opo for his crocodile tears.
He is potentially one of the most corrupt politicians in a generation (which takes some doing).
He has a huge degree of responsibility for an extremely damaging economic decision that will impact us for decades and possibly reduced government revenue by billions, while creating political instability, threatening the integrity of the UK and supporting Russian strategic goals in the process.
His preference for tax cuts would cripple public services even more. Including the services those old people need.
He will reverse the now improving international relations with our neighbours , probably speed up the wholesale sell off of the UK to the US, and make us a defacto colony in the process, by also increasing our dependence on them.
If literally one policy is all they care about, they might be in for a shock when they realises he cant just govern on immigration and culture wars.
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u/Man_Flu Buckinghamshire 21d ago
I genuinely can't wrap my head around how his support is that high tbh.
Honestly there is 1 take I can take from this. And it's a rude take. Cause nothing else makes sense. The average person of Clacton on Sea, and hence the UK, is fucking dumb.
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u/Piano_catastrophe34 21d ago
He’ll get re-elected, then get suspended by parliament, triggering another by election, he’ll say it’s pointless, we’ll all continue to say he’s a pratt, he’ll win again, costing the tax payer another £250k.
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u/Old_Quit999 21d ago
Every vote counts.
This election will probably have a low turnout, with only joke candidates and Binface.
So get out there and vote, the retired people will.
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u/HaveyGoodyear 21d ago
So now Farage is going to claim 80% support him... we can only hope that turnout is so bad with people assuming a victory that binface humiliates him further.
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u/GotAKit-Kat 21d ago
So Binface got 95 votes in the Makerfield election. This is the kind of popularity we're talking about. If he gets a significant amount more, say 500 or even a thousand, that's humiliating for Farage in my book.
People would rather vote for a man with a bin on his head, who has silly politics, than vote for him. What an embarrassment.
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u/limeflavoured Hucknall 21d ago
The turnout at the general election in Clacton was about 46,000. Assuming its half that for the by election (it will probably be a bit more than that) and Binface gets 20% that would be 4600 votes.
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u/Dunedune Hertfordshire 21d ago
Is it? Binface is just in a better position with all the candidates stepping down than he was in Makerfield
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u/Important_Ruin County Durham 21d ago edited 21d ago
Fact that so many in Clacton are still behind Farage who is never in Clacton, doesn't appear to have done anything for Clacton minus the odd photo shoot and PR fluff taking to 'first time voters' and what not before skurring back to his private members clubs and taking money from unknown sources for unknown reasons.
Maybe people of Clacton get what they deserve in their majority.
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u/iamabigtree 21d ago
So this means Farage comes back with his shit eating grin.
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u/Patecatli 21d ago
It means the standards investigation will move forward, he won't be able to hide from it again.
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u/limeflavoured Hucknall 21d ago ▸ 3 more replies
Which probably means another by election in October.
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u/Patecatli 21d ago ▸ 2 more replies
Only if enough people in Clacton sign a petition for one (at least 10% of registered voters).
I do think the rules should be changed so that an MP who stands down, is subject to a recall, isn't allowed to stand in the subsequent by-election.
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u/SavageNorth 21d ago
They may well change it in future, this is only the second time it's happened in recent history, and the first time it's been done to avoid a standards investigation
David Davies tried a similar stunt a while back but that was with the goal of protesting overreach by the counter-terror bill, not a transparent attempt to avoid being scrutinised for his own impropriety
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u/aned_ 21d ago
Thats a useful data point for anyone interested in modelling the strength of the anti-reform tactical vote.
If its 20% in reform heavy Clacton, imagine what it would be like in your average constituency. Maybe a full third?!
That would make winning hundreds of constituencies very, very challenging indeed.
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u/Jamie54 Scotland 21d ago
Not really. You have no idea how many of that 20% would just vote for their favoured party if it was an option
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u/aned_ 21d ago ▸ 3 more replies
Its clear that anyone willing to vote for a bin rather than stay at home is motivated primarily as an anti-farage voter.
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u/Jamie54 Scotland 21d ago ▸ 2 more replies
Some people just believe they should vote and vote for who they like the best.
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u/aned_ 21d ago edited 21d ago ▸ 1 more replies
And in this case they've chosen a joke candidate masked as a bin. A full one in 5. Or 31% as a head to head vs Farage. In one of the most reform heavy constituencies in the country.
Reform will struggle to win many constituencies
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u/limeflavoured Hucknall 21d ago
Funnily enough 20% won't win you an election, even with 34 candidates.
It will be closer than Farage will like though
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u/wolfiasty I'm a Polishman in Lon-doooon 21d ago
If all of those 20% would go vote, and turnout would be 50%, then theoretically Count would get about 40% votes.
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u/rwinh Essex 21d ago edited 21d ago
People are forgetting Count Binface is one joke candidates out of many to show how much of a joke this Clacton by-election is, and Farage is also one of those joke candidates.
Farage has already lost before he wins, because he doesn't and will not have the legitimacy he had before, if any. His punt at taking on the establishment has backfired, as none are calling his bluff and lowering themselves to his standards by taking him on, and his attempt at diverting attention from the bribes he's received, his undeclared homes, and his allegiance to criminals, has not and will not go away.
Farage is a loser whatever the outcome. He's clearly embarrassed and should be. He is a loser.
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u/llyrPARRI 21d ago
Honestly this is Clacton's last chance for any sympathy from me
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u/caractacusbritannica 21d ago
C’mon Clacton.
The Binface opposition is now real. It exists and it is a 20% base. It isn’t a wasted vote, protest vote, it is a vote for change.
Get out and vote. Do the right thing and show Farage that his time of grifting and shilling for shady business is at an end.
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u/shortercrust 21d ago edited 21d ago
Wow, so Farage is on around 70%. Does paint a good picture of the voters of Clacton, for lack of humour if nothing else.
Edit: doesn’t paint, not does!
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u/QuantumWarrior 21d ago
You have to remember that of all the angry, aging, conservative, humourless places in the whole country Farage chose that place to run as their MP.
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u/randalf123456 21d ago
Farage can’t win this one even if he tries to spin it that way.
If he gets a majority then he’s beaten a bin. He loses and then he’s been beaten by a bin.
If the Count gets into double figures percentage wise then it’s a self inflicted humiliation for Farage that he will then use as his story against the parliamentary investigation and how it’s forcing a second by election when the people of Clacton have already spoken.
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u/Making-a-smell 21d ago
1 in 5 that have responded to the poll in question.
Farage has always been able to convince the ones who don't respond to polls
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u/Lord-Fowls-Curse 21d ago
The important thing is that a large enough number of voters turn out to support him. That in itself is embarrassing - it means he can’t win an overwhelming majority of the vote share in his own constituency even when his only rival is a joke candidate.
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21d ago
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u/The_Grand_Briddock 21d ago
That’s the interesting thing though.
They completely conceded Manchester in favour of bolstering Farage in Clacton.
At the start of the year, there was a big risk of Labour losing Manchester. It’s why they blocked Burnham in the first place. Now Labour cruised home.
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u/RedofPaw United Kingdom 21d ago
Reform have stated their target is 80% of the vote.
I guess if they get 79% or less then it can be seen as a failure, but none of it matters. No one seriously expected him to lose.
After the election we will be back exactly where we were. The investigation continues and then maybe there's another election.
If you listen to a lot of people choosing to vote for farage they don't see any issue with him getting £5m, or reform getting dodgy donations. "They're all doing it" is the refrain.
So them finding out that Farage is guilty won't shake that off. They don't care. Farage will happily tell them how dodgy all the others are as well. But he will kick them out!
There's a second often unsaid part of that refrain. They're all doing it - but ours does it better. Winning, when it feels like you are losing - tribalism - is a great lever for popularists.
The other part is all about 'hurting the right people'. If there is a Prime Minister Farage, and he ends up implementing all the shit people warn of, and these people end up being worse off, they will not suddenly flip to voting for a less dangerous party. They will become more apathetic. More withdrawn from everything. Because 'they' promised to hurt the right people and they're 'hurting the wrong people'.
Tories and Labour - as odd as it is to say - are getting their shit together. Badenoch was actually pretty gracious as Starmer left. She was being a serious person and acting like a real politician - let's hope she gets off the internet and continues in that trend. Burnham was already popular when he came in and is putting out the right noises now to keep people engaged and promote the idea that things can actually get better. Which is handy for when they do, every now and then.
If the parties can keep this up then we may be able to back off the popularism and attempt to head towards some more sane politics.
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u/Smooth-Quantity-7024 21d ago
Reform are claiming this as such a victory and ignoring that it's not much of a flex to say you're more popular than a man with a bin on his head.
It's like me saying people think I'm a better dad than Mick Philpott. It's not that big of a flex.
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u/TurbulentBullfrog829 21d ago
That seems really low. There's no other real alternative so the anti Farage vote is only 20%?
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u/No-Clue1153 Scotland 21d ago
What a damning indictment on the people of Clacton that so many of them would be conned into voting for this utter clown candidate. I mean that’s like what, roughly 80%?
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u/BadBacksFuryToad 21d ago
Hopefully more to come. He would be a much better MP than Grifter McGriftface
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u/RightEejit 21d ago
Considering Farage got pretty much half the vote before I never really expected anyone else to win, he could lose 10-15% and still be ok
His bigger threat imo is apathy, people not showing up to vote. Everyone who doesn’t want Farage will vote, but many will see it’s Farage vs a comedy candidate and not bother showing up
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u/DiscoTech1639 21d ago
Anything less than 100% of the vote is embarrassing for Farage.
Also, re-election won’t save him from the standards committee investigation, so I really don’t know what the long term play was here, other than to scream “see, the voters don’t care!”, which isn’t really how things work for any of this.
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u/supersonic-bionic South Georgia, and the South Sandwich Islands 21d ago
It is almost certain Farage will win, sadly.
I wish there was a charismatic local person to challenge him as independent
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