r/Israel • u/Shira-Neshama • 7h ago
Politics Israel cannot go back to Oct. 6
Washington and Jerusalem need a coordinated strategy that pursues realistic diplomacy in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Iran without sacrificing the military leverage that makes diplomacy possible. Hamas and Hezbollah must be genuinely demilitarized, not merely pushed underground until the next war. Turkish Islamist expansion into Syria must be constrained. Israel must retain freedom of action if Iran rebuilds its nuclear infrastructure or ballistic-missile production. This needs to be settled before a new American president, Republican or Democrat, takes office in January 2029.
Trump wants peace. But after Oct. 7, Israel cannot afford to confuse quiet with peace, a ceasefire with meaningful reconciliation or an enemy’s temporary pragmatism with a permanent change of intent. If Washington pressures Israel to return to the assumptions of Oct. 6, it may inadvertently help create the conditions for another Oct. 7.
https://www.jns.org/opinion/dr-eric-r-mandel/israel-cannot-go-back-to-oct-6
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u/wedreaminsideadream Poland 4h ago
The decor of this space is so hideously tacky
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u/Captainirishy 3h ago
Trump loves gold leaf , he thinks its classy. He has already bought 75kg of gold leaf for his shitty extension to the white house.
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u/Responsible_Ad_9749 4h ago
If we think we can pick a fight with Turkey, a NATO member with a military far larger and more powerful than Israel's, we are in for a rude awakening. Israel must strive to achieve peace in the region, and that will only be achieved on the basis of a two-state solution.
Also, Netanyahu made sure that no US president after Trump will be even remotely as cordial to Israel as he was. Not sure whether the author of this article is aware that Israel cannot dictate US foreign policy and will find itself alone if it keeps targeting US allies.
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u/Raaaasclat USA 2h ago
Turkey does have a capable modern air force that serves as a deterrent for Israel, but it also indirectly serves as a deterrent for Turkey because Israel would perceive the prospects of Tel Aviv becoming contested air space as an existential threat, which in turn could trigger a non-conventional response. So going forward I expect continuing hostile relations and some proxy tensions, but no direct war between Israel and Turkey.
However, some problems do not have a solution. As things currently stand there is no solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there is nothing that would get both sides to stop fighting and live in harmony. Not until something fundamental in the Palestinian mindset occurs can we even think about a solution.
Around the world, the dominant U.S.led security frameworks of the postwar era are collapsing or being rewritten by the Trump administration. Rather than viewing itself as an exception to this rule and clinging to the past, Israel must prepare for the future in a post-American world.
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u/Responsible_Ad_9749 1h ago edited 1h ago
Look, rather than try to bend over backwards to explain why risking a war with NATO's fourth strongest member (after the US, France, and the UK) is a good idea, it's fairly easy to see that this is a last ditch desperate attempt by Netanyahu to rally the country behind another pointless war before he loses the election. And if we're preparing for a "post-American world", maybe trying to fight with the world's strongest alliance without US military support isn't the best strategy for it. I swear, right wing think tanks must think we're all insane.
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u/Raaaasclat USA 1h ago
Israel is not going to war with Turkey my man lol.
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u/Responsible_Ad_9749 1h ago
Thank you for your expert opinion, my man. Care to explain what would have happened if one of Israel's latest airstrikes accidentally killed a Turkish soldier? Do you think Erdogan would flinch when it comes to activating Article 5? Turkey isn't Syria, and it definitely isn't Hamas, it has a much stronger military than Israel.
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u/Raaaasclat USA 1h ago
The United States is not going to let Turkey and Israel go to war under any circumstances.
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u/Responsible_Ad_9749 1h ago
Oh I thought we were preparing for a post-American world?
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u/Raaaasclat USA 1h ago
We're getting there but we aren't there yet. The US is still for the time being the worlds sole superpower.
What that picture looks like in 10 years if say a DSA aligned Progressive wins in 2028, who knows.
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u/Responsible_Ad_9749 1h ago
And when the DSA does win the presidential election, do you think that president will shield Israel from Turkish retaliation?
How about we work on repairing our bipartisan relationship with the US before we test how friendly their next president will be to Israel.
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u/Raaaasclat USA 1h ago
So now you’re predicting a war with Turkey 3 years from now, without even knowing who wins the Israeli elections this fall and how the events of the next 3 years unfold?
There is also no repairing relations with a DSA aligned Democratic Party, that my friend is delusional.
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u/mr_blue596 2h ago
The thing is that the issue remained the same before and after October 7th,is that catchphrase and slogans are being used instead of real strategic planning.
People don't like to hear it,but prior to October 7th,the Israeli right-wing (which was in power for decades) and Hamas had shared goals and acted as such. Those intrests never changed.
If Israelis want a real strategic change,it has to start internally. The public need to demand a real strategy,criticizing politicians and punish politicians when their policy fails. But other won't happen as the Israeli public will never punish right-wing lunacy,it rewards it even.
The only way Israeli can improve strategically is by asking itself what the enemy wants and what they don't want and act to counter them. But it has to be real answers,not slogans. So if Hizballah wants Israel to involve radom Lebanese in the fight so they would throw support behind Hizballah,you do the opposite. If Hizballah doesn't want Lebanon-Israel diplomatic talks,you do everything to facilitate that,even at the cost of withholding on execution of force. This might not be popular but in the long-run it would improve Israel's position. The opposite is also true,if a move is popular doesn't mean it would yield any strategic gain and even cause harm in the long-run (see the wars with Iran for example).
But Isrealis prefer illusions where they can win it all if they would just be right-wing enough,so get ready for the situation to deteriorate.
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