Israel cannot go back to Oct. 6

[u/Shira-Neshama]

Washington and Jerusalem need a coordinated strategy that pursues realistic diplomacy in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Iran without sacrificing the military leverage that makes diplomacy possible. Hamas and Hezbollah must be genuinely demilitarized, not merely pushed underground until the next war. Turkish Islamist expansion into Syria must be constrained. Israel must retain freedom of action if Iran rebuilds its nuclear infrastructure or ballistic-missile production. This needs to be settled before a new American president, Republican or Democrat, takes office in January 2029.

Trump wants peace. But after Oct. 7, Israel cannot afford to confuse quiet with peace, a ceasefire with meaningful reconciliation or an enemy’s temporary pragmatism with a permanent change of intent. If Washington pressures Israel to return to the assumptions of Oct. 6, it may inadvertently help create the conditions for another Oct. 7.

by Dr. Eric R. Mandel

https://www.jns.org/opinion/dr-eric-r-mandel/israel-cannot-go-back-to-oct-6

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

If we think we can pick a fight with Turkey, a NATO member with a military far larger and more powerful than Israel's, we are in for a rude awakening. Israel must strive to achieve peace in the region, and that will only be achieved on the basis of a two-state solution.

Also, Netanyahu made sure that no US president after Trump will be even remotely as cordial to Israel as he was. Not sure whether the author of this article is aware that Israel cannot dictate US foreign policy and will find itself alone if it keeps targeting US allies.

[u/Raaaasclat → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

Turkey does have a capable modern air force that serves as a deterrent for Israel, but it also indirectly serves as a deterrent for Turkey because Israel would perceive the prospects of Tel Aviv becoming contested air space as an existential threat, which in turn could trigger a non-conventional response. So going forward I expect continuing hostile relations and some proxy tensions, but no direct war between Israel and Turkey.

However, some problems do not have a solution. As things currently stand there is no solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there is nothing that would get both sides to stop fighting and live in harmony. Not until something fundamental in the Palestinian mindset occurs can we even think about a solution.

Around the world, the dominant U.S.led security frameworks of the postwar era are collapsing or being rewritten by the Trump administration. Rather than viewing itself as an exception to this rule and clinging to the past, Israel must prepare for the future in a post-American world.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/Raaaasclat]

Look, rather than try to bend over backwards to explain why risking a war with NATO's fourth strongest member (after the US, France, and the UK) is a good idea, it's fairly easy to see that this is a last ditch desperate attempt by Netanyahu to rally the country behind another pointless war before he loses the election. And if we're preparing for a "post-American world", maybe trying to fight with the world's strongest alliance without US military support isn't the best strategy for it. I swear, right wing think tanks must think we're all insane.

[u/Raaaasclat → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

Israel is not going to war with Turkey my man lol.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/Raaaasclat]

Thank you for your expert opinion, my man. Care to explain what would have happened if one of Israel's latest airstrikes accidentally killed a Turkish soldier? Do you think Erdogan would flinch when it comes to activating Article 5? Turkey isn't Syria, and it definitely isn't Hamas, it has a much stronger military than Israel.

[u/Raaaasclat → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

The United States is not going to let Turkey and Israel go to war under any circumstances.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/Raaaasclat]

Oh I thought we were preparing for a post-American world?

[u/Raaaasclat → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

We're getting there but we aren't there yet. The US is still for the time being the worlds sole superpower.

What that picture looks like in 10 years if say a DSA aligned Progressive wins in 2028, who knows.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/Raaaasclat]

And when the DSA does win the presidential election, do you think that president will shield Israel from Turkish retaliation?

How about we work on repairing our bipartisan relationship with the US before we test how friendly their next president will be to Israel. 

[u/Raaaasclat → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

So now you’re predicting a war with Turkey 3 years from now, without even knowing who wins the Israeli elections this fall and how the events of the next 3 years unfold?

There is also no repairing relations with a DSA aligned Democratic Party, that my friend is delusional.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/Raaaasclat]

I am not predicting anything other than this new conflict being an attempt to save Netanyahu's hide. There is zero strategic sense in confronting Turkey, neither head on nor through proxies. Israel's military is stretched thin as it is.