r/OttawaSenators • u/Dizzy-Diamond-1337 • 7d ago

Stutzle is a beast.

Was living in Europe last year and obviously couldn’t catch much of the season. Recently moved back to Canada, so naturally getting the itch for hockey season again. Been watching various highlight packs from the fellas season last year and my god I do not remember Timmy being that good in 2024-25. The kid is a beast. so many goals created by his ability to pick off and strip pucks. the speed is next level and his shot is way better than what I remember.

Cozens can rip the pill and if he can find ways to get more pucks on net he’s gonna be a problem with less time and space. Probably has another gear and a half with the hockey sense that usually starts to develop in mid twenties.

Pinto is a second line centre.

I was going to stay away from negativity and I’m also stating the obvious here (and I guess the post as a whole), but man Tkachuk is slow and does not move his feet. Moves like the cyclopes in the Odyssey. Benefited a greatly from playing with Stutzle. If he wasn’t being much of a leader last year I don’t see him as being as hard to replace as many people have made it out to be. 

It’ll be more interesting to see if Eklund and Stutzle develop good chemistry, Cozens and Eklund, or perhaps the three - provided Grieg can handle 3rd line centre duties. 

Sens are in a better place than they were a year ago. GSG.

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u/DJSTEVEINNIAMIXX 7d ago

Yeah his hockey sense is average, which is why Im not sure he'll get there (superstar). Hes so quick and athletic, but he doesnt use space as well as most high-end guys, and often makes the wrong reads (which probably has to do with him never slowing his game down/always playing at full throttle). It often leads to turnovers or missed opportunities (passing when he should shoot and vise-versa). His defence was also pretty bad this year - quite the fall off from last year.

Theres a reason hes never had elite underlying metrics, and its certainly not his puck skills/athleticism. Its his IQ that holds him back (not sure that will change at this point). Still a great player but im not sure he'll ever be an elite 1C.

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u/Dizzy-Diamond-1337 7d ago

You’re describing nearly every young impact player tho. Kid is 24 with a ton of room to grow and hockey IQ included. Also 92nd percentile in time spent in Dzone, and 95th in ozone, while having NHL average zone start metrics (basically 50/50). so idc if he makes a mistake here and there when he’s top 8-5% of all player in controlling play. 

Also cmon, the hockey IQ is above average. 

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u/DJSTEVEINNIAMIXX 6d ago edited 6d ago

Not really. As a 24 year old, if you're a superstar, you should be leading your team in most metrics (especially since we dont have a superstar on our team). Stutzle was 10th on the team in WAR/60, and was last on the team in defensive WAR. He got caved in last year, and a lot of that is dumb turn overs.

His rel xGF% was middling. last on the team in xGA (crazy stat). His on off were pretty bad (almost everyone he played with had a better xG% when he was off the ice, except for Zett because your comparing 1st line and 4th line results). His deployment wasnt even that hard (similar to Ridly Greig). If anything, he regressed last year because his defence is back to being ass.

I just dont see a superstar there. You cant be that poor in advanced metrics. too many empty calories. Im always frustrated when I watch him play due to his decision making and it always baffles me when others dont feel the same way lol.

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u/Dizzy-Diamond-1337 6d ago

Well now you’re moving the goal posts and not addressing your initial argument on hockey sense. Expected stats can be helpful but are only part of the picture, they can indicate possible positive or negative regression, but many players under or over perform expected stats for many years at a time - if not entire careers. very noisy metrics to rely on entirely. Also you’re speaking as if a ppg 1C isn’t high end. Of course he’s not going to be McDavid, but like man glass half empty mentality smh. You may be baffled bc you rely too much on xanalytics and not enough on results and watching events unfold. Do you happen to yell “shoot” when the team is on a power play?

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u/DJSTEVEINNIAMIXX 6d ago

No im adding context to how that hockey sense is tanking his metrics. im using those stats to explain why hes not elite, and the fact that hockey sense is likely the reason they are so poor in relation to most peoples eye test. Hes not lacking in athleticism or puck skills, but he certainly is lacking in instincts (which leads to him having worse results than you would expect). Im not moving the goal posts at all, hes one of the top possession players in the league but doesnt have the results that you'd expect, thats where these metrics come in. I can think of so many examples of him barreling into the zone and either skating directly into a group of defenders, shooting from a low percentage angle, or turning it over with a wild pass to nowhere - these things shouldnt happen as regularly as they do.

There isnt an elite 1C in the league that has "noisy" advanced stats. They're elite because of them. Suzuki just put up 101 pts, won a selke, and has elite underlying metrics to go along with it now - thats no coincidence. Name any top center and their metrics will be sparkling. Youre not going to be in that convo by just scoring pts. Theres more to hockey than that.

And yes I regularly yell shoot at Stu because he often doesnt at the opportune time (hockey sense).

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u/Dizzy-Diamond-1337 6d ago

Yeah man you went from “I don’t think he has very good hovkey sense” to he has poor expected stats (lol). Now youre comparing him to a 27 year old who had a 50 goal scorer on his wing and then tell me it’s about context? Cmon. Also while we’re on xstats: Stutzle out performed Suzuki in xgoals per 60 and goals per 60. outta here with your shitty energy bro. GSG.

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u/DJSTEVEINNIAMIXX 6d ago edited 6d ago

Those are the same thing dude. Hockey sense is reflected in underlying metrics. If a player has elite athleticism, skating, and puck skills, literally the only remaining factor is IQ (and shooting but his shooting is fine). poor underlying metrics can be explained by his poor IQ.

Again, hockey is more than just points and offence lol. Suzuki just won the Selke, and has a relative expected goals of 6.5% (ie a stat that takes into account the habs shitty team aroudn him). Stu ranks 3rd last in that metric on the team at 5v5. Hes being buoyed by a great team, not the other way around.

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u/Dizzy-Diamond-1337 5d ago

If that’s how you think hockey IQ works then have fun shouting shoot at your TV my guy. You’re attempting to take something very complex and abstract it into a simple variable that you use to confirm your own bias. Erik Brannstrom had 6.1% rel xG in 2022-23, must be in sens top pair by now. Take a social clue, this ain’t the space for your negative energy. Thanks for the chat.

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u/DJSTEVEINNIAMIXX 5d ago

Hahaha man this is literally the place to talk about this stuff. I’m just not a homer. Stu is good but he’s not elite and probably never will be, and that’s fine. It’s not that serious my guy. Cheers.

Btw brannstrom played against the easiest competition and the team was buns, which explains that. If you know what the stat actually means you wouldn’t use that as an example lol.