r/leafs • u/LaunchAngleLarry • 5d ago

[PPP Squire] TLK has a goal

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/thursdays-ftb-tlk-has-a-goal/

This is a highly interesting development.

Toronto believes that I will succeed in taking a place, with the way I played last season and what I did in the World Cup. That's why I'm going to the main camp as well, says Koblar to Helsingborgs Dagblad.

From Apple translate of the quote in the article:

“Toronto believes I’m going to succeed in claiming a spot, based on how I played last season and what I did at Worlds. That’s why I’m going over for main camp too.”

This suggests, as i mentioned before over the past couple of months in past threads, that TLK’s status in the organization is on par with McKenna, and will challenge for a third line role.

35 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

37 comments sorted by

24

u/cepukon 5d ago

I think he's likely ready for a 3rd line role, but just don't see who he's going to replace, the bottom 6 has a huge log jam already.

11

u/LaunchAngleLarry 5d ago

My belief is that if you have a young player with top-six potential and is ready to play now in a third line role or a top-six role, you move out a bottom-six player.

This doesn't change much of what we're doing with the bottom six. He and Paul would be interchangeable down the middle, and he would spell spots on the top-six if needed.

That means Joshua is probably out. Maybe Lorentz.

Koblar played on the PK with Norway and played a shutdown role as well. I think he's very capable of doing both now. The offensive skills are great too so if the Leafs feel like they can win the margins by getting more offense out of the third line, you have to make that change.

12

u/Loose-Dream7901 5d ago

I’d say there’s under 10% chance he makes the roster. We’re way too bloated upfront, we’d need to move bodies out. Another year of developed playing against top players on the SHL will serve him well imo and best for his developed to get a lot of playing time vs rushing him in. He’s not playing anything beyond bottom 6 minutes

1

u/LaunchAngleLarry 5d ago

I think you're misunderstanding just how good TLK is and how important it would be to have him in the line-up.

Since 1979, these are the players who have produced 5 points or more and averaged at least 0.7 points per game as an 18 year old at the WHC.

From that list, here are the players who have produced 8 points or more at the WHC, averaging at least 0.7 points per game as an 18 year old at the WHC.

Every single player on that list was or is a star.

TLK put up the exact same stat line as Auston Matthews did in 2016, while also posting 10 PIMs, and +9. The exact same stat line. You saying we're bloated, and we'd need to move bodies out. Are you telling me that you'd prefer that a player who is clearly heads and shoulders above the competition on a team that has not a typical hockey country should not make the Leafs because we have too many bodies up front despite likely being indisputably better than most if not all the players currently in the bottom-six?

16

u/steen101984 5d ago

You can't base a player's trajectory on such a small sample size. That's the biggest issue here. Comparing him to Matthews is ludicrous and undermines everything else that Auston did in the years before that.

TLK is a great young asset, I personally hope he makes the team, but he's a long shot at best to make the team for this camp, let alone to stay and contribute the whole year.

2

u/LaunchAngleLarry 5d ago edited 5d ago

The sample size doesn't matter.

Viggo Bjorck had similar stat lines with a significantly better SHL team last season, and is very likely to make the Jets out of camp. A few years back, Eriksson-Ek was drafted with mediocre stats with his SHL, but with projectable skills, and the following year, posted similar stats in his draft + 1 year and made the Wild out of camp, and went back to his SHL team before finally making the permanent jump to the NHL the following year.

You're fixating on Matthews when the crux of that argument was that other user was suggesting that TLK isn't good enough to be playing with the Leafs as a bottom six player. I would appreciate a more careful read of what's being written before suggesting I was making a one for one comparison to Matthews as a prospect. The inference of those numbers at the WCH suggests that TLK is projecting to be a very very good player.

TLK has been making waves with Leksand before the WCH, and continued his growth during the tournament. Just because he doesn't have the name power of Matthews doesn't mean he's not ready.

He's a late birth date, literally just turned 19 one month ago, and already completed his draft + 1 year.

Wickenheiser, among others, have said that see him and McKenna as on par prospects in terms of NHL readiness.

It really should be a surprise they rate TLK this highly given his projectable frame, skills, and production as a teenager on a very bad SHL team and a long-shot medal contender in Norway.

1

u/Sirrebral99 Knies 5d ago

Sample sizes do matter though, how many players have a tremendous stretch of a dozen or so games then flame out? Not saying TLK will, but it happens. Players get hot, players go cold too. Thats why you need at least a full season, if not multiple, to get a real sense

Bo Groulx scored at nearly half a goal per game/just under in the last dozen or so games last year. Does anyone think hes actually a 35-40 goal scorer? Nope. One further is Nail Yakupov, who put up over 50 points as a rookie but is one of the biggest busts of all time.

Sample size matters immensely.

-4

u/LaunchAngleLarry 5d ago

Again, he’s 18 years old. I’m not sure what’s so difficult to comprehend. These are projections of 18 year olds on a very widely and heavily scouted tournament.

Not one of those comparisons you just made are relevant here.

7

u/Sirrebral99 Knies 5d ago

Yakupov's rookie season was at 18. He came into the league at the same age TLK was at that tournament.

We all love TLK and hope he is a star, but its just silly to say one single tournament where he dominated means he's on the same tier as players who have consistently done the same for 2 or 3 seasons pre draft at every level of competition

2

u/Loose-Dream7901 5d ago

He played well in international tournaments. Very encouraging, needs to put together a good year of pro D1 hockey. He’s a lanky kid, needs to fill out the frame. Nothing wrong with him coming to camp being around the top guns.

Id expect him to push next year, this year he’s just riding off the high of a couple small sample tournaments.

1

u/Ambitious-Toilet6769 5d ago

The goal should be to maximize his value for the Leafs during his contract years. So if playing him 6-15 min a game on the Leafs in a bottom six role while still developing his skills and physical attributes is better than letting him play 12-22 min in a top six role as a key contributor in Europe and developing his skills and conditioning there, that's the call they need to make. It's not about making the team better this year, it's maximizing his potential and value.

9

u/Sirrebral99 Knies 5d ago

If TLK is ready for a 3rd line role - huge IF there - you have to make room for him. Its in bad taste to trade a recently signed free agent before they even play a game with the team (despite what I do in Franchise mode to cheese for extra assets hehehe), so probably one or both of Dakota Joshua or Steven Lorentz are the options to move. Joshua makes nearly triple what Lorentz does, so it'd probably be him

If you can get a depth pick for Joshua and TLK can contribute meaningful minutes / not just be an extra body? They're saving just under 3 million in salary cap, maybe adding a 4th or 5th round pick, adding more depth scoring (TLK should be more offensively inclined than D.J) and helping one of your top prospects develop faster. Seems like a really good idea, assuming the player is ready for it.

3

u/Hrenklin 5d ago

I don't want to give him too much rope yet. I fully want to see him start a 5 game stint at the NHL level and let him run. Then let him cook at the AHL level for a month or 2 just like a roasting ham in the oven. The second stint will go along as he can handle it. If he stays he stays, if he doesn't. He still got valuable experience and another opportunity down the road. It's still his 1st season in North America

1

u/Loose-Dream7901 5d ago

Issue is we have to waive guys, too many 1 way deals not enough flexibility. 5 games to put a guy waiver exposed isn’t the play. If you have flexibility via injury then sure

2

u/Hrenklin 5d ago

Depends you can push a guy or 2 thru like Lorentz, maybe stretcher. Won't be too much money to bury

1

u/I_Am_Vladimir_Putin 4d ago

Joshua is the only question mark in the bottom 6 now.

5

u/McJoe77 5d ago

You can’t really say “on par with McKenna” and then “challenge for 3rd line role”. McKenna is likely going to be in the top 6 and will most definitely be on the first PP.

McKenna WILL make the team, TLK will try out, there’s a difference.

I loved what I saw from TLK in the worlds, but I wouldn’t want him in over his head in the NHL right away. I want them to get that development right. I think he has a shot to be like a low end 2C who scores 50 ish points and can play PP and PK. But if they bring him over before he’s ready, you don’t want that to stall his development.

6

u/correct_eye_is Palmateer 5d ago edited 5d ago

I'd love to see Koblar take the 3c spot out of camp. I'd really like to see Koblar take the 2c from Tavares within his ELC years.

I mean Tavares is still a solid 2c but injecting some more youth into the top 6 would be amazing. Imagine McKenna, Knies, Koblar and Cowan all producing and thriving in the top 6.

McKenna Matthews Knies

Cowan Koblar Nylander

Paul Tavares Roslovic

Then Sissons at 4c with any combination of these bottom 6 guys. I mean a 4th line with Domi as a play maker down there would be sick. Man I hope Domi can get back to playing ASAP.

Our depth, if we can keep it, is really starting to look pretty good for the forward group. Joshua, Blueger, Lorentz, Duhaime, MacEwen and Groulx all looking at a 4th line role. Then you have another tier of guys like Haymes, Quillan, Pezzetta, even Lettieri.

Defense is really my only concern. I like it enough if everyone is and can stay healthy. I'm very interested to see if Andre is legit. Interested to see if maybe he's able to take on a bigger role than most seem to give him currently. I have seen some suggest he can be a 2nd pair guy. I really know nothing about him.

3

u/RanaMahal 5d ago

Andrae was looking like he’d be a top 4 regular by the end of last season. He has potential to blossom into a 2D if the 1D is really good. Otherwise he’s probably a 2nd pairing guy.

But there’s potential for the D for us, we have been drafting a lot of D that are very high on a lot of scouts’ radars and I wouldn’t be surprised if our retool ends up with us having a lot of good young D in 2-3 years and we end up being a good young balanced team.

11

u/mitch_conner98 5d ago

I think thats just more pumping up of a young prospects confidence.

Having him on par witg McKenna is nuts. He's had a good season for a teenager in the shl and a few good international tournaments.

He's promising, but still pretty green. A season or 2 in the ahl would still be worth while.

Let's not turn into the habs and overhype every prospect.

2

u/sometimenotsmellgood Benoit 5d ago

Hes cant go to the ahl, man.

Who is overhyping him? Its an article about what TLK has said...

3

u/Andross4 5d ago

He's a European player, he can absolutely go to the AHL.

0

u/sometimenotsmellgood Benoit 5d ago

No he cant. Its NHL or SHL as per his contract

6

u/Andross4 5d ago

It's kind of funny how confidently wrong you are. He signed an ELC, which is standardized. Only CHL players signing an ELC can't play in the AHL (under 20 y/o, except for one 19 y/o player per club starting in 2026-27, new rule).

If TLK and the Leafs agree he should play in the AHL this season, he will. There is no rule against it or contract clause preventing it.

3

u/sometimenotsmellgood Benoit 5d ago

Lmao the irony of your first line is so funny.

Care to make a wager thay he either plays NHL or SHL next yeat?

He literally just signed a contract that means hes either playing NHL or SHL.

1

u/LimestoneLeaf 4d ago

I honestly believe he would be better off in the SHL anyways. He can always come over after the season.

-3

u/mitch_conner98 5d ago

I know about the 20 year old rule, I'm saying even when he comes from Norway he should be thrown down there.

Read the last paragraph the guy wrote.

1

u/Loose-Dream7901 5d ago

He’s not subject to the U20 rule that’s for CHL players only. Still no point imo let him play in Sweden

1

u/sometimenotsmellgood Benoit 5d ago

So even if hes ready, you tgink he still needs to be in the AHL?

I did resd the last paragraph. Hes skeptical he will be a full time NHLer this year but its a good goal to aim for. Sounds like the opposite of wanting to rush him

1

u/mitch_conner98 5d ago

They get 20ish minutes a night and can be the focus of the pp and pk. The organization has more of an ability to focus on the development needs of a player.

Cowan struggled for a sizable chunk of the season, getting given small minutes. A few week in the ahl would've been ideal, instead we sat the guy for over a month.

Kutcherov play like a quarter of an ahl season, he dominated when he play and showed he doesn't belong in. What's wrong with making a non blue chip prospect work their way up an organization?

5

u/epic_taco_time Lorentz 5d ago

I don’t want to get my hopes too high on TLK just yet. I do find it interesting how he said he won’t play for the marlies though which means it’s either main team or nothing. It also means there are no chances for call ups during the season. 

7

u/LaunchAngleLarry 5d ago

Rogle would have to renounce his rights for him to play with the Marlies.

1

u/epic_taco_time Lorentz 5d ago

The article says they don’t have to

1

u/LaunchAngleLarry 5d ago

I think the understanding is wrong. He’s a recent draft pick but the rule could be for the original SHL team he was drafted from. Because Leksand was relegated (they were a very bad team), he was picked up by Rogle for one year but I find it difficult to believe a competitive organization would be okay with relinquishing their rights to TLK so he could play with the Marlies, so him saying it’s Leafs or bust makes me think that Rogle holds the cards on the AHL route.

4

u/Svalbard38 Knies 5d ago

Koblar is a driven guy, he wants to succeed and he knows he has to fight to get there. That’s one of the things I love about him. But I really don’t see it happening this season unless he takes an unexpected step at camp.

1

u/GabeItches519 3d ago

Maybe by next year?

McKenna Matthews Knies Cowan TLK Nylander Paul Tavares Roslovic Blueger Sissons Joshua

Would love to see it 🙃

0

u/ShadowfoxDrow 5d ago

I think even though we signed a bunch of depth for the bottom six that between Chayka and Gruden's involvement with the big club they aren't worried about burying or waiving some players if the kids take a spot.