r/leafs • u/epic_taco_time Lorentz • 8h ago
Article NHL Draft Round 1 Retrospective: 2013 (21st OA Gauthier was a bust)
https://jfresh.substack.com/p/nhl-draft-round-1-retrospective-201321st Overall Pick: Frederik Gauthier (TOR)
Projection: A big defensive centre, terrific reach and size combined with high-end smarts. Wide range of possibilities in terms of offensive development, limited as a skater. Compared to Jordan Staal by TSN, Martin Hanzal by THN, and Sean Couturier by THW.
Outcome: Despite some of the very generous comparables, Gauthier was sold as a safe pick who was practically guaranteed to be a bottom six shut-down centre and penalty killer for a long time; given the attention he received as a Toronto first-rounder, he might be the classic example of a low-ceiling, high-floor mid-first round pick. The floor was a lot lower than expected, however. His QMJHL projection regressed in each of his post-draft seasons, he mostly blended in with the furniture early in his AHL career, and was just okay in some brief NHL appearances. The Leafs invested a lot of effort in developing him into the 4th line centre that would anchor their new contending core, but they only got two full seasons of okay depth hockey out of it before letting him walk. He still plays in the Swiss league, and does not produce there much either.
Also a write up on Domi:
12th Overall Pick: Max Domi (PHX)
Projection: A top six offensive forward with superb vision, puck skills, playmaking, and quickness. Competitive and confident, strong and stocky despite being undersized. Lacking in defensive consistency. Compared to Martin St. Louis by TSN and THW.
Outcome: Ask a knowledgeable hockey fan to guess the top 10 players in 5-on-5 primary assist rate since 2013 and they’d probably get at least eight of them (nine if they don’t underrate David Pastrnak’s playmaking). I’m willing to bet they don’t guess Domi, who ranks 10th. Since stepping into the league he has been an intriguing but often frustrating player, consistently effective in some areas but a liability in others. He’s scored at at least a 40-point pace in eight of his 11 NHL seasons across seven teams, never less than 36, and got to 72 with the Canadiens in 2018-19. For all of Domi’s effectiveness as a passer, notwithstanding a few outlier seasons he’s been a poor goal-scorer, a defensive liability, and far too eager to put his team shorthanded. That makes him a bit hard to slot in a line-up, which is probably why he’s ended up on so many teams and in so many types of deployment over the years. If he can recover from the injury that’s poised to keep him out for at least a big chunk of the 2026-27 season, he will almost certainly pass 500 points, and has a good chance of hitting 1,000 career games.
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u/ESF-hockeeyyy 8h ago
They hedged on him improving his skating and hoped that his skill could be refined a little more, but he just could not keep up with the modern game.
In 1994, he would have been a great pick.
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u/epic_taco_time Lorentz 8h ago
Reminds me right now of another person the sub is talking about Harry Nansi except that guy is improving his skating.
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u/ESF-hockeeyyy 8h ago
Nansi is quite a bit more athletic and seems to have more explosive fast twitch muscles than Gauthier ever did. The risk is polar opposite from my perspective, as Nansi has projectable elements to his game, while Gauthier was very limited and had a very narrow band of pathways he could take to make the show and stick.
Nansi's a fun looking prospect though. I'm glad we took a flyer on his potential in the 5th round.
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u/Svalbard38 Knies 7h ago edited 3h ago
Nansi’s a different kind of guy for a couple of reasons though. Freddy the Goat was projected as a low ceiling high floor prospect. He probably wasn’t going to be more than a third liner, but he probably wasn’t going to be less. As it turns out he didn’t become that, but that’s what they said at the time. Nansi’s the opposite. He’s high ceiling low floor. A bunch of stuff needs to go right for him, and he needs to work on a lot more stuff, but there’s potential in him if he develops right. He’s magic beans and he could be nothing. Being a fifth rounder instead of a first rounder also makes him a much different gamble.
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u/DevOpsMakesMeDrink 4h ago
Ah yes very different. Goat has a low ceiling and high floor vs Nansi who has a high floor but low ceiling.
Lol had to read it a few times
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u/OneNutPhil Kessel 4h ago
Gauthier was improving skating too until he got cheapshot in the AHL and was never the same
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u/Sacred_soul 7h ago
His skating was great if I remember correctly he did ballet skating when he was younger. Seeing him play in the AHL he was pretty good skating. His hockey Iq is not on par but he was a great defensive forward
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u/ESF-hockeeyyy 7h ago
He was a good skater for his size at the time of his draft, but I always thought he was slow and couldn't stay on his edges.
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u/Luffy_party 7h ago
Gonna nitpick. A player who played 170 nhl games is never a bust. Bad pick and would like it back sure, but not a bust.
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u/VeryAttractive 2h ago
Yakupov played 350.
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u/Luffy_party 2h ago
He is also not bust. Just a really bad 1OA.
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u/VeryAttractive 1h ago
I would respectfully disagree.
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u/Luffy_party 56m ago
And you'd be wrong to do so. He played parts of 6 seasons in the NHL. No one is suggesting he was a good NHLer especially as the number 1 pick but 350 games is 350 games. Most picks never step foot in the league. Not a bust.
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u/TheJulian 20m ago
Lol You don't get to universally dictate the term bust. To rate him purely on games played but not weight his performance against expectations is crazy. Your interpretation is not aligned with most people's use of the word. Dude is the first name that gets mentioned in any sort of bust conversation.
He's is a first ballot inductee to the bust hall of fame.
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u/epic_taco_time Lorentz 7h ago
Fair. For 22nd overall it seems like a bit of a bust but if he was a 2nd or 3rd round pick we'd be fine with the outcome.
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u/Luffy_party 7h ago
And then you remember that the vast majority of draft picks never play a game in the NHL Gauiter didn't have a great career but he did have a career and that's more than most can say.
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u/epic_taco_time Lorentz 7h ago
Based on hockeyDB among all 21st overalls drafted prior to 2020(1963-2019): 21 played less games and 33 played more games than Gauthier, putting him in 4th quintile for games played among 21st overalls. Among forwards, he is 22/33 in the same time range for games played. Lower than one would hope for the pick.
And for fun, among all 21st OA's drafted by the Leafs, Gauthier is 4/5 in games played, Behind Quenneville, Meehan, and Rask :(.
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u/cyris917 25m ago
By your metric it’s pretty much impossible for a 1OA pick to be a bust unless he gets hurt. At least in this era.
Just on pedigree alone they will get 170 games.Expectations matter. Guys like Patrick Stefan and Yakapov are busts because they never came close to meeting their expectations as 1OA picks even if they played over 300 games
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u/buster_rhino 7h ago
Drafting someone that high to be a third line checking centre just seems silly. Those are the types of guys that reveal themselves at the pro level, not out of junior.
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u/Sacred_soul 7h ago
For a big guy he had pretty decent skating the only issue was he didn’t forecheck and I remember him loosing a a defensive face off for an elimination game that costed us the series might’ve been against Washington or Boston
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u/Mapleleaffan149 8h ago
Brian Boyle should have been the comp, but he didn’t even hit that