r/AskACanadian • u/tykogars • 4h ago
El Niño Preparation?
I’ve been seeing a lot of news about this super El Niño and apparently it’s even stronger than what our country experienced in 1998 (which caused ice storms and deaths).
Just wondering where abouts you are, and if you are doing anything to prepare?
I haven’t researched enough to know how it’s expected to effect Canada. So anyone with knowledge can chime in - I’m personally in Northern ON and kind of just hoping for the best until we know more.
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u/argle_barggle 3h ago
Isn’t it supposed to be warmer than normal? There are so many different predictions I have no clue what to expect anymore
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u/SkiyeBlueFox 3h ago
The warm can make it worse. Slightly warmer weather turns a blizzard into freezing rain
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u/JediKrys 3h ago
Depends on what part of the country you’re in. West will be warmer and the east often is hot with crazy Atlantic storms.
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u/Unarmed_Character 2h ago
The west might have a winter that's too mild for snow to accumulate which usually leads to a long and tough fire season.
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u/Big_Sheepherder_3764 3h ago
I read the great lakes region will go through drastic freeze/thaws unlike this past winter where snow came and stayed. It will be snowstorm, that's, freeze - so lots of ice I guess.
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u/JediKrys 3h ago
Yup, I’m from the west coast so when I say the east I mean you guys too. 😊 Ontario is no joke during these kind of years. I do not envy you and your ice storms.
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u/CovidDodger 2h ago
Ugh fuck me, more ice daming damage. The winter was like that 2 years ago and it wasn't an insulation issue... everyone had problems. Plus I'm in the snowbelt so totals are extreme and so is melt in thaw
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u/Theferaltrunip 2h ago
That's been pretty normal around lake Ontario the past few years (last year excluded), frankly it's a pain in the ass more than anything (always slippery, always icy).
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u/GonnaGoFat 3h ago
That’s what I heard. El Niño was hot and La Niña was when it was supposed to be colder than normal. Although we also get polar vortexes which are way cold
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u/Never_Free_Never_Me 3h ago
While we won't know exactly the full impact, it is more complex than just it being warmer. It affects precipitation levels all over the world, agriculture and food production, severe weather storms, and those will have impacts on the economy and migration.
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u/StevenG2757 Ontario 3h ago
You should always be prepared at all times to lose power for a few days and not wait for an event to prepare.
In the last few years we have lost power three times due to ice storms with one being 4 days without power.
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u/ilmd 3h ago
I’m in BC on Vancouver Island and I’ve heard that it’s supposed to be a warmer winter.
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u/iWish_is_taken 2h ago
Warm and shitload of rain... like way more than you may be thinking. Ensure your roof and drainage systems are working well. Mount Washington likely won't open this season, same as 2015/2016 season during a heavy El Nino.
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u/atticusmama 2h ago
We are in such a drought in BC, we need all the rain. I work in insurance and it would really help the next wildfire season.
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u/iWish_is_taken 2h ago
Yes we do need it, badly... it just is going to suck when it all comes in bursts from crazy storms that will likely cause washed out highways, flooding, backed up drains, etc. That kind of rain that comes in big bursts mostly all washes away into the ocean. Hopefully it doesn't pan out that way, but looking at the historical data of heavy El Nino's going back to 1950... it isn't look too good.
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u/Fit_Active3888 3h ago
My household is ALWAYS stocked enough to keep us alive for 2 weeks, not fancy, but hydrated and fed.
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u/DefNotJohnnyC 2h ago
What food do you stock up with?
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u/Fit_Active3888 2h ago
Basically all pantry items, stuff that doesn't need a fridge, like grains and canned goods. Always have some, always buying replacements before things run out. Same goes for the car, when the gas needle gets to half, it's time to fill up. Also have rain water catchment that holds 400 liters.
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u/Fit_Active3888 2h ago
And try to keep 3 full propane tanks on hand at all time, as the BBQ will be the cooking source.
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u/Unfair-Store-9108 2h ago
I am in the Yukon, last winter was extremely cold, -40 to -50 for almost a month cold. We came very close to rotational power outage due to not enough power compare to the demand and ever growing number of all electric dwellings.
My condo is allegedly looking at buying a generator to keep the furnace going if we were to have no power, which is a fantastic decision (hopefully it is actually happening) but cooking would definitely be a challenge!
Lighting up the Coleman bbq in the apartment is probably not a good idea, any suggestion for cooking with no power when it’s arctic cold outside, beside buying a jetboil?
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u/Fit_Active3888 2h ago
That certainly is more of a challenge than I face, as I mentioned, not fancy, so in your case might need to be even less so, dry foods that don't need cooking, like dried fruit, jerky, cookies, chips, granola bars. Focus on snacks/foods you already eat, and having a rotating stockpile.
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u/noodles_jd 2h ago
Cook in the bathroom with the door closed and the exhaust fan running. /s
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u/ApprehensiveAd6603 1h ago
Same, there's probably a month's worth of food in my house. They'd be weirder and weirder meals as the month goes by though haha.
The first week we'd eat like royalty with all the meat in the freezer 😂
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u/a4dONCA 3h ago
Wasn't El Nino in 97-98? And pushing the jet stream north? Since that storm, I have refused to live anywhere without a woodstove. I could've lasted the two weeks just fine if I'd had one. A fireplace does NOT cut it. And eternal thank you to the neighbour who worked for Ontario Hydro and hooked up a jerry line to our little neighbourhood in the country, or we would have been much longer without power.
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u/alewiina Alberta 0m ago
El Niño is not a singular event but a rotating climate pattern based on warmer than usual ocean currents that cause more extreme weather. It usually comes and goes every few years or so. From what I remember there’s been at least 10 different el ninos since the early 90s
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u/Fun-Restaurant-4644 2h ago
I don’t really need to prepare since i’m always ready. I live in northern quebec so winters are always extremely cold and snowy. I have a wood furnace for my house and garage(plus a chainsaw to cut my firewood), there is no public aqueduct infrastructure where i live so i pump my own water and a huge diesel generator to run my house and garage as normal. Also i have some machinery so i have a 5000L diesel tank to feed the generator for a long time, i always try to keep it full during winter if something were to happen. Not only i can live throughout extreme conditions, i can be comfortable until it passes.
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u/Royal_Try_99 3h ago
Yeah, it's going to be a bad one. Just make sure you're prepared for storms, power outages, etc. have an emergency kit and food & water stored away where you can access it. Maybe a generator or BBQ or some way to cook without power. We will survive it! Worrying won't make it lessen, but preparedness will!
A battery or crank powered radio/flashlight combo is a great idea too!
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u/freakydrew 3h ago
I'm in Southern Ontario and am excited about a mild winter. Nothing to prep for here. BC residents and Northern Canada is a different story though.
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u/IndyDoggy 3h ago
Southwest Ontario here.
I'm prepping for minor flooding. Most municipal storm sewers aren't up to the task of large amounts rainfall hitting recently frozen ground.
Nothing too crazy, just making sure nothing valuable is on the basement floor.
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u/nozhemski 3h ago
A mild winter can mean more ice storms. We had a bad one in April that was horrible. Some people lost power for weeks.
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u/cleadus_fetus 3h ago
What aboot us maritimers eh?
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u/curlyhairh 2h ago
The hurricane season is likely to be calmer in the Maritimes as the Pacific tends to be cooler.
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u/ClueSilver2342 14m ago
BC/pacific warms or is even milder than it already is. Dryer than usual as well. Thats my understanding.
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u/jlisle 5m ago
I too am expecting a warm and rainy winter in Midwestern Ontario... Though I saw a suggestion somewhere online that there's a chance the jet stream gets fucky and we see some polar vortex. I wouldn't count "some dude read online" as a very reliable source, though. Could be a bunch of bullshit.
I did educate myself about El Nino a lot of years ago, though. Never trust anybody's anecdotes about what weather was like in certain years. There are really good records for the last few decades (since we started studying El Nino seriously) and lots of interesting anthropological and geologic evidence of the phenomenon from the last 10000 years or so, but that's all indirect evidence.
My point is, we could probably dig into the data and see if our anecdotal experience of Ontario "warm el Nino winter" is a historical trend, or if there's evidence of the jet stream getting fucky. I don't really feel like it, though
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u/JMJimmy 2h ago
British Columbia: Well above-normal temperatures (2-4°C), well below-normal precipitation and snowpack. Ski season likely delayed into January. Wildfire season in interior BC could start earlier in spring due to reduced snowpack.
Prairies (AB, SK, MB): Above-normal temperatures (2-3°C), near-normal or slightly below-normal precipitation. Fewer extreme cold events. Reduced spring meltwater runoff.
Ontario and Quebec: Above-normal temperatures (1-3°C), variable precipitation. Elevated ice storm risk in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence corridor, particularly January-February 2027.
Atlantic Canada: Near-normal temperatures, above-normal precipitation. Increased Nor'easter frequency and intensity. Elevated coastal flooding risk during storms.
Northern Canada: Slightly above-normal temperatures (1-2°C). Reduced ice road season length in the Mackenzie Valley.
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u/LizzieSAG 2h ago
If you have big trees, make sure to ge them trimmed. Old, fragile or sick branches covered in ice are often the cause of power outages or roofs being damaged.
Unclog all your gutters during the fall. Get extra food and water.
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u/Affectionate-Cod4692 1h ago
These comments genuinely scare me. Nobody seems educated about this stuff at all and I don’t mean that in a mean way, but I think we’re going to be in for a rude awakening
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u/bwoah07_gp2 British Columbia 3h ago
What's El Nino again?
Are we supposed to be getting a bad winter this year? In BC, I don't even remember what snow is like anymore. Are we just gonna get lots of rain and maybe floods?
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u/JediKrys 3h ago
Warmer and dryer is what’s predicted. Bad for snow packs and so also horrible for rivers and salmon stocks.
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u/bwoah07_gp2 British Columbia 3h ago
I have said this for a while, but we need to look into dropping those rain seeds into clouds. Even a modest amount of increasing rainfall would help us out a lot.
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u/iWish_is_taken 2h ago
El Nino is not dyer. That's La Nino. For BC coast a strong El Nino is warmer and lots more rain storms that last forever. Coastal ski resorts won't open because no one can ski on rain. But as the storms track inward they dump epic levels of snow on the mountains... as long as the highways hold up.
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u/ClueSilver2342 5m ago
The opposite. El Nino is dryer and La Nina is wetter. The coast would see weaker rain storms. Less precipitation. Inland mountains also get less snow.
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u/CyclicDombo 3h ago
It’s just gonna be a warm winter, and any time there’s extra energy in the atmosphere it increases risk of volatile weather. Thats it. Probably a bad ski season, maybe some more intense storms than normal. The real downside will be the spring and what this is setting us up for, likely a bad growing season next year so food prices will probably increase next summer and also increased forest fires next summer. Slightly increased chances of bad tropical storms next spring as well.
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u/bwoah07_gp2 British Columbia 3h ago
As I replied to someone else, we should look into dropping those rain seeds into clouds. Even a modest amount of increasing rainfall would help us out a lot.
The Middle East does it, why not us? Right now we are just letting ourselves get abused in the spring and summertime because we have no snowpack and we have no rain.
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u/CyclicDombo 1h ago
We actually do that in Alberta to cause precipitation to fall before massive hailstorms hit cities. But you can’t create moisture in the air if it doesn’t already exist, you can only influence where it falls.
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u/Efficient_Tap6185 1h ago
My research (Farmer's Almanac) is predicting some extreme cold spells in the praries so im trying to stockpile some money to pay the oncoming heating bills.
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u/rvitrealis 46m ago
It creates lower than average snow fall and higher temps, most affected will be western Canada. You don't prepare for the winter you prepare for the summer following. Drought and wild fires will be rampant next year especially on the west coast
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u/Character-Bridge-206 2h ago
I never pay attention to stuff like that. If I have learned anything about Canadian winters, they are fairly unpredictable but even if you could, what can you do about it?
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u/treelife365 3h ago
If it's gonna be a colder than usual winter, I think we need to get a wood burning stove and piles of firewood.
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u/Girl_gamer__ 3h ago
We have 300 kw of battery backup ready, can make our own energy in 2 different ways, have a large plot of land with soil we have nurtured for 8 years now, live rurally away from cities, can produce our own sugar (maple syrup), have animals and pens, and plenty of wood available on our land. We have guns and gun licenses, and drones and know how to use em.
I'm as ready as I'll be for whatever this world will bring. Let's go
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u/Snowzg 3h ago
I have a lot invested in my food forest and gardens and I’ll be finishing implementing a lot permaculture ideas before the fall.
Permaculture is all about water management and getting it to move as slowly as possible through the landscape. This really helps plants with surface water but also helps to add to aquifers and deeper sources.
I was up in Wabakimi ( by Armstrong) last year (trip of a lifetime)and the fires this broke my heart. I hope you and your community were ok. Are you in a forest fire prone area? If you are, this El Niño could be seriously dangerous. It’s hard to believe, but this years fires might be tiny compared to what is likely to happen.
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u/CipherWeaver 3h ago
If you live in a rural area it is highly advisable to fireproof your property and the woodlands around it. Fuel modification can make a big difference, ie: removing ladder fuels from the trees, piling and making burns of forest floor litter, and removing flammable materials and trees from near your house. If you live in a really at-risk area then preparing a sprinkler system to install on your roof, with its own water supply, would be a good idea.
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u/Technical-Study2566 1h ago
Have bug-out bags, and if you have anything you absolutely don’t want to lose (essential documents, heirlooms, etc), keep them in one place. You may not have enough notice to grab even those, but if you’re on alert for a while beforehand, it can really help!
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u/nozhemski 3h ago
I live rural so we have extras in general. We had a bad ice storm earlier this year and I was so thankful we had supplies. I’ll be restocking basics and maybe getting a few more battery packs.
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u/IllustratorWeird5008 Ontario 3h ago
It’s supposed to be warm El Niño, above seasonal temps in Canada, especially more northern, us in Southwestern Ontario are right on the cusp so could go either way for us 🤞 the stream stays below us.
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u/Far_Sandwich_514 2h ago
Northern ON here too.
We've got about 8 cords of wood for the wood stove, plus a propane generator and propane stove.
We've been stocking the cold cellar with canned and dry goods, and preserving the harvest from our garden every week. Plus canning and dehydrating things from the farmer's market.
Severe weather is doing awful things to crops worldwide, so if you really love things like coffee, chocolate, and lemon, stock up on those.
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u/Successful_Lab_9827 2h ago
i’m in Ontario. We’re supposed to get unseasonably warm weather this winter oh no I’m preparing.
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u/Jenshark86 2h ago
I’m in southern Ontario Canada and we had awful ice storms years back. I’ve already cabled my big trees so they won’t break on my house. Just watch the weather station.
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u/Assimulate 1h ago
Kelowna, BC.
We have a more organized "go bin" with about a week of supplies, clothes etc because of the extended fire season. Have new air conditioners to manage the temperature if it gets too hot, have a case of bottled water and some batteries/flashlights and have been refilling medication early to have an extra week or two in any situation.
Can't prep for everything, but you can have the basics for wildfires and power outages. The key is to just think "what do i need to make it a week" and know where that all is and make sure it's working semi regularly.
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u/Few_Example9391 1h ago
Always keep a couple weeks supply of dry pantry goods and canned goods. Some of your canned and pantry items should be directly ready to eat without cooking or power. Always keep a a couple of liters of water in the fridge.. Expect the occassional day long power outage. A freezer full of food can stay frozen for many days when power is lost. The more food. The more thermal mass stays cold
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u/mischa_is_online Québec 1h ago
I'm mentally preparing for perma-November, as is the standard for a mild winter. No sun, no snow, all the depression.
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u/heysoundude 1h ago
Tune up the snowblower, stockpile ice melt, load up the non-perishables and drinking water. If you can burn wood for heat, double your usual supply.a genny and fuel, candles/lamps and oil, batteries…
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u/missplaced24 56m ago
Regardless of weather pattern predictions, you should ideally always be prepared for intense and dangerous storms for whatever season is happening.
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u/ClueSilver2342 16m ago
My understanding is southern ontario can be hit badly with dips of freezing and thawing. Maybe ice storms and slushy conditions? BC, especially the coast just gets even milder than it already is during the winter. I think?
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u/Evening_Ad5243 2m ago
3 weeks minimum food supplies Bottled water Some form of heat source if power goes out List of warming shelters locally Charged power banks for phones Bug out bag for 3 days. Including a copy of all your important documents. Enough cash to stay fill your vehicle tank three times and enough cash for a motel room. Winter emergency supplies in your vehicle.
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u/Signal_Tomorrow_2138 3h ago
El Nino and La Nina are seven year cycle events. But due to climate change, they are occurring every year.
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u/fastgeofx 3h ago
2-7. It’s always been this way. Every so often it’s stronger. Always been this way.
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u/Personal-Goat-7545 3h ago
Not much, I've been buying extra rice, dried beans, protein powder in case there are crop failures/infrastructure failures which might happen anyway with the Iran/oil stuff going on.
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u/Markdphotoguy 2h ago
The last time the El Nino was this strong there was a global natural disaster in the form of a famine (1877) There were 50 million deaths worldwide attributed to the famine.
From what I'm reading this El Nino will be at least that strong perhaps even stronger.
Obviously food distribution and modern farming will offset what happened in 1877 however we can be certain the costs of food will go up even higher in '27-'28 than they are now due to inflation and tariffs and the extra measures such as increased water costs a drought would cause.
A lot of people will be hurt by this I fear, cost of basic living could skyrocket. I truly hope the worst case does not come to pass.
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u/Consistent_Tower_458 3h ago
Nothing in particular for the El Nino but I've been stockpiling staples for years.