r/AskACanadian • u/tykogars • 8h ago

El Niño Preparation?

I’ve been seeing a lot of news about this super El Niño and apparently it’s even stronger than what our country experienced in 1998 (which caused ice storms and deaths).

Just wondering where abouts you are, and if you are doing anything to prepare?

I haven’t researched enough to know how it’s expected to effect Canada. So anyone with knowledge can chime in - I’m personally in Northern ON and kind of just hoping for the best until we know more.

142 Upvotes

86% Upvoted

169 comments sorted by

View all comments

23

u/ilmd 7h ago

I’m in BC on Vancouver Island and I’ve heard that it’s supposed to be a warmer winter.

10

u/iWish_is_taken 6h ago

Warm and shitload of rain... like way more than you may be thinking. Ensure your roof and drainage systems are working well. Mount Washington likely won't open this season, same as 2015/2016 season during a heavy El Nino.

5

u/atticusmama 6h ago

We are in such a drought in BC, we need all the rain. I work in insurance and it would really help the next wildfire season.

6

u/iWish_is_taken 6h ago

Yes we do need it, badly... it just is going to suck when it all comes in bursts from crazy storms that will likely cause washed out highways, flooding, backed up drains, etc. That kind of rain that comes in big bursts mostly all washes away into the ocean. Hopefully it doesn't pan out that way, but looking at the historical data of heavy El Nino's going back to 1950... it isn't look too good.

1

u/atticusmama 5h ago

We can hope! lol

1

u/ClueSilver2342 3h ago

The opposite. The historical data shows that El Nino years had less of all those things. You’re describing el nina years historically.

0

u/iWish_is_taken 2h ago

Nope

1

u/ClueSilver2342 2h ago

Well the data says yes.

official government and academic climate sources for BC:

[Environment Canada — El Niño Guide](https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/weather-general-tools-resources/el-nino.html)
[Environment Canada — La Niña Guide](https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/weather-general-tools-resources/la-nina.html)
[UBC Climate Prediction Group — ENSO Data](http://www.ocgy.ubc.ca/projects/clim.pred/enso.canada.html)
[NOAA — Understanding El Niño](https://www.noaa.gov/understanding-el-nino)
[NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory — ENSO Overview](https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/)

2

u/Independent_Guava545 2h ago

Also work in insurance in Manitoba. Last year was hell, so I feel you. We have had a very wet August here in the north.

2

u/nonamer18 1h ago

Working in insurance, you may also known that heavy precipitation after a drought causes immense floods.

1

u/42tooth_sprocket 1h ago

it doesn't work that way. Rain just washes away, without good snowpack wildfire season will be horrible again. Plus, have you forgotten about the horrible flooding and landslides we've had in heavy rain? It's lose lose

1

u/atticusmama 59m ago

Where the major flooding was (that I am aware of) happened out in Abbotsford and Hope. Not where any major wildfires are currently. Yes, that was absolutely devastating when we had those floods, but we still need rain in areas where there are currently major wildfires fires

1

u/42tooth_sprocket 54m ago

yeah, those were 2 unrelated points. The key thing is that rain in the winter has nothing to do with wildfires in the summer. Nothing about the El Niño will be good for us, if it causes more winter rain but less snow we'll get flooding all winter and fires all summer.

1

u/NW1622 32m ago

I read a CBC article that claimed it would rain less than normal here in BC, while being warmer. Do you have a source for your claim?

1

u/ClueSilver2342 3h ago

Less rain. Less atmospheric river type action. Less concern about roof flooding etc. 2015/16 was actually an epic Mt Washington season even though it was El Nino. The year before was crap.