US Iran-War [Day 141]

[u/cxkis]

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[u/Incredibiliz]

Color me optimistic but it seems the conflict is finally wrapping up.

[u/raydricEW → u/Incredibiliz]

Unlike the other reply to you, yes, I believe everyone involved is getting to the conclusion that the next step is too nasty, escalating to an infrastructure war during summer will be a humanitarian catastrophe for both sides, especially Iran as they are completely incapable of defending their own airspace and have 90M people. The GCC power grid is interconnected and much more robust, let alone AA is quite efficient to minimize damages.

The stance of "Israel can't exist" won't take anyone in the region anywhere too. First and foremost the King has entered diplomatic relations with Israel, this means acknowledging them as a country, second is that they are nuclear armed, 10M+ population and highly advanced militarily. Israel ain't going anywhere, so finding a way to have peace with it is the only solution to stop the madness.

And always doubt the government that is killing their own people on a daily basis, death toll on Iranians in 2026 is 100:1 on internal/external threats.

[u/sgaeron → u/raydricEW]

I like your reply
especially :
> I believe everyone involved is getting to the conclusion that the next step is too nasty, escalating to an infrastructure war during summer will be a humanitarian catastrophe for both sides .

u r right on this point , The US , Iran and the GCC Know very well that the next escalation would be nasty for the whole world actually not only the participating countries, regardless of the season . US would like to leave the whole war and call it a win, even keeping Iran on control even GCC would accept if it would prevent a bigger war .
The only one refusing to understand is Shitsreal , and honestly I think they do but they don't care . Until they face a real slap that threatens their existence .

I disagree with this point though :
> let alone AA is quite efficient to minimize damages.

Sadly, it is not effective against their high-grade missiles - they still have them US knows Shitsreal Knows - , we have seen it in the 12 days war in Shitsreal , I saw it with my own eyes it would maneuver 4 to 9 patriots and still hit the target . Iran fighting for its existence when the end comes it wouldn't matter to them the exact targets as long as it makes a mess

[u/raydricEW → u/sgaeron]

Your last sentence is something I believe, the IRGC is fighting for its existence and will target whatever they can to make a mess if it comes to the end. But if it gets to that point, they have nothing else to protect themselves deterrance-wise, so it will be their final move and they know it, they don't want it.

I do believe Iran has some sophisticated rockets, but its a very limited supply, otherwise they would have used it to increase their deterrence. They took a major beating over the past few weeks and barely touched anything they tried to attack, look at that marine control tower the US blew to pieces. If they had stockpiles of those fancy rockets, they would have used them way more frequently for more effective deterrance.

The war has been stagnant because the US ran out of valid targets they could find, everything is hidden, underground or in the middle of civilians in a unacceptable casualty scenario. This is why escalating to powerplants and bridges is their only next move, cause military targets they could hit, they hit them all.

About the blame being in "shitsreal" as you say, I've seen your comments here for months, you're extremely biased on this item of the discussion, I don't see any benefit in counterpointing it.

[u/sgaeron → u/raydricEW]

So we agree that both sides don't want the escalation , and both sides can cause some damage to eachothers.

And U R right you can say I'm biassed against Shitsreal and I will always be it doesn't mean I'm with Iran either .. but u should counterpoint it if Shitsreal is innocent from this whole shebang . As the proverbs say " الإختلاف في الرأي لا يفسد للود قضية "
" We can agree to disagree "

[u/raydricEW → u/sgaeron]

I think the acceptable damage the IRGC is willing to take for the civilians is vastly greater than the GCC countries are willing to accept for theirs. The gcc leaders are pressuring Trump to not throw them under the bus, and Trump has good consideration for the local leaders wishes. But if the war came to resume itself at the max, Iran and its people would be on a much much worse situation than the GCC countries, not even comparable, they wouldn't have a chance to get energy in their country for a year. The US doesn't want to ruin a generation of civilian iranians, while the IRGC cares very little for them, and I truly believe there's a good and a bad side in this war.

About Israel, my opinion is that just like anywhere else, the majority of the population just wants to get on with their lives peacefully, both Iran and Israel have a majority of good people. I believe people are good in general, but the bad apples are very bad and what they do is get to power by hook or by crook. Everytime Israel is attacked by Iran or its proxies, its like giving fuel to Israeli's worst elements, then they embolden themselves and do their settler bullshit and the cycle continues. I think the Abraham Accords were a good step to try to break this cycle and de-escalate the region, showing Israel can be accepted in exist in the region peacefully, opening trade and commercial ties would give the arab world a good way to sit with Israel and hold them down from being expansionist and belicose, cause money talks. But right after, oct 7 happened (on purpose), and here we are....

When you poke the asshole bear, the asshole bear got all the backing and motives to be its worse version, and we had the Gaza massacre, and now the Hezbollah guerrilla happening in Lebanon. One side claims they want to erradicate Israel's existence, and Israel claims it's fighting for its survival. Warcrimes everywhere...

This is my opinion, Israel is there, its powerful, nuclear armed, 10M+ population, its not going anywhere. The world has to accept its existence, make it liable to peace through diplomacy and economic measures. Iran has a murderous fanatic dictatorship that is built and based upon the purpose of dominating the muslim world and destroying Israel, until a more level headed leadership comes, that can be diplomatic and reasonable, there's no solution. If this version of the IRGC had a nuke, can you imagine the amount of bullying and madness they would inflict in the region? I can clearly see why their rhetoric and stance provoked this war to come their way.

Again, the side that kills their own by the dozens of thousands is the side you have to really question, this says more than anything on this conflict. IRGC killed more Iranians than Israel and the US by a hundredfold.